Blog Archive

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Michael Mann slandered again by Clive Crook of the Climate Denial Machine


Atlantic shocker: Senior editor Clive Crook fabricates another quote to smear Michael Mann

by Joseph Romm, Climate Progress, August 4, 2010

The Atlantic’s Clive Crook has written the most embarrassing and libelous piece published by the media, “More on Climategate.”

The fact that the Atlantic continues to allow him to make up stuff and print it (without fact-checking) for the sole purpose of smearing Michael Mann — after the editors were informed of the libelous errors in the first piece — calls into question the editorial judgment of the entire magazine.

Both of Crook’s pieces should be taken down from the web, and he should issue a huge, public apology to Mann.  Indeed, I think he owes Mann the courtesy of a phone call apology, too, since he has now written two falsehood-filled smear jobs on Mann without even bothering to try to talk to him.

Two weeks ago I wrote, “The Atlantic’s Clive Crook needs to retract his libelous misinformation and apologize to Michael Mann.” I pointed out a bunch of untrue assertions he made about Mann.   Crook now acknowledges some of them, sort of — but he doesn’t even go back and correct the original post!

At the time I thought he had fabricated a quote when he wrote, falsely:
Three of four allegations are dismissed out of hand at the outset: the inquiry announces that, for “lack of credible evidence,” it will not even investigate them.
Of course, the allegations weren’t “dismissed out of hand.”  Mann had been exonerated of them in the first investigation, as I noted.

I can’t find the phrase “lack of credible evidence” anywhere in the second inquiry (or first, for that matter, the one Crook seems to suggest he was aware of even though his entire first post suggests otherwise).  Crook fails to identify where in the inquiry it came from, so I assume he can’t.  I challenge him to do so, especially since in his new post he makes a major fabrication whose sole purpose is to smear Michael Mann.  Two fabrications would make a pattern.

As we will see, this latest fabrication is so extreme it goes beyond what even extremists like Virginia AG Ken Cuccinelli have done in their effort to defame Mann.  Here is what Crook writes:

You be the judge. Read the reports and see if you find the inquiry convincing. I’d draw your attention especially to the finding that deals with “the trick to hide the decline.” On this, the first report says:
While a perception has been created in the weeks after the CRU emails were made public that Dr. Mann has engaged in the suppression or falsification of data, there is no credible evidence that he ever did so, and certainly not while at Penn State. In fact to the contrary, in instances that have been focused upon by some as indicating falsification of data, for example in the use of a “trick” to manipulate the data, this is explained as a discussion among Dr. Jones and others including Dr. Mann about how best to put together a graph for a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report. They were not falsifying data; they were trying to construct an understandable graph for those who were not experts in the field. The so-called “trick” was nothing more than a statistical method used to bring two or more different kinds of data sets together in a legitimate fashion by a technique that has been reviewed by a broad array of peers in the field.
Well. It seems to me, and I dare say to other open-minded readers, that the talk in the emails of a “trick to hide the decline” raised the reasonable suspicion that a trick had been used to hide the decline. “[T]o the contrary,” says the report. The “trick” has no connotation of trickery, but merely denotes a “statistical method”. Striving to keep a straight face, let us accept this.
What about “hide”? Is it all right to employ a “statistical method to hide the decline”? Why was anybody trying to “hide the decline”? (One response might be: because the data which showed the decline were unreliable. Fair enough, but then this rather casts doubt on the whole series, doesn’t it, not just on the part that shows a decline?)
I am not competent to discuss the science, and do not pretend to be. But here is what I see when I read the “trick” email and then the report. An explanation is required. Mann’s account strains credulity, yet is readily accepted. No contrary opinions are sought or heard. On this basis the report finds “no substance” in the criticism.
Romm is entirely satisfied by this rigorous “investigation.” Fine. I disagree with him.
The screenshot is here.

Anyone who follows this issue — and that should certainly apply to a journalist who is so obsessed with Mann he goes after him a second time after botching the first attack — knows the e-mails don’t contain the phrase “trick to hide the decline.”

A serious journalist — or magazine — would check his facts or contact Mann before writing such trash, especially after being called out for failing to check his facts or contact Mann the first time!

But Crook isn’t serious.  He claims to be of “moderate opinion” but his phony line of attack isn’t being pushed by moderates.

As it so happens, the Union of Concerned Scientists points us to exactly who is pushing this disinformation.  In a July 1, 2010, article, “Ken Cuccinelli Makes Basic Factual Errors About Mike Mann’s Research, Stolen Emails in Response to UVA,”
On June 11, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli formally responded (pdf) to the University of Virginia’s request that he drop his demand for documents related to climate scientist Michael Mann’s research. The response is riddled with inaccuracies, according to an analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), and undermines his case for obtaining documents pertaining to Mann’s work at the school…
First, Cuccinelli incorrectly attributes a characterization of another scientist’s research to research conducted by Mann. Cuccinelli wrote:
“…[V]arious statements or methods have been attributed to Dr. Mann including the fact that he developed a ‘trick’ in order to ‘hide the decline….‘ “
But the latter phrase from the emails did not, in fact, refer to Mann’s research. Those phrases were in an email from scientist Phil Jones, who ran the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. It was Jones who described an aspect of Mann’s work as a “trick.” Later in the same email, Jones also described an aspect of scientist Keith Briffa’s research, calling it “hide the decline.” Cuccinelli wrongly attributes this description to Mann’s work. Given Cuccinelli is specifically investigating Mann, his inability to distinguish between references to Mann and Briffa is an egregious error.
And if Cuccinelli made an egregious error, what precisely should we call what Crook did?  While Cuccinelli may be an anti-scientific extremist– see Virginia AG mocks dangers of CO2, telling Tea Partiers to hold their breath and make the EPA happy and Nature rains on Cuccinelli: “The University of Virginia should fight a witch-hunt by the state’s attorney general.” — at least he didn’t fabricate a quote.

For the record — and for people like Crook who admit they are not competent to discuss the science but insist on doing so — the reason I and so many others are “entirely satisfied” on this issue is because we know it has been investigated to death.  As UCS explains in the very next paragraph:
Second, Cuccinelli’s response continues to cite those two phrases of technical jargon out of context. Both phrases, and the science they reference, have been thoroughly examined. Multiple investigations have found that the phrases are informal references to techniques used in climate change research that were publicly known and available at the time of the emails. Investigations by Factcheck.org, Penn State University (pdf), the U.K. Parliament and an independent investigation commissioned by the University of East Anglia have concluded that climate contrarians have taken these phrases out of context and misrepresented climate science. In any case, reviews of Mann’s research and other climate reconstructions have confirmed Mann’s basic conclusions.
Crook can try to pretend that this isn’t about the science, but in order for him to challenge Mann and every single independent body that has looked at this, he is, in fact, claiming to be more of an expert on the science than they are.

Indeed, back in December (!) Nature magazine itself wrote:
The stolen e-mails have prompted queries about whether Nature will investigate some of the researchers’ own papers. One e-mail talked of displaying the data using a ‘trick’ — slang for a clever (and legitimate) technique, but a word that denialists have used to accuse the researchers of fabricating their results. It is Nature’s policy to investigate such matters if there are substantive reasons for concern, but nothing we have seen so far in the e-mails qualifies.
Shame on Crook for fabricating quotes and misrepresenting the facts in order to keep harassing Professor Mann, one of the nation’s leading climatologists or certainly the most exonerated.

Shame on the Atlantic for continuing to publish this libelous work after being warned what Crook is up to.
If the magazine doesn’t take these posts down and issue a blanket apology to Mann, I would suggest the professor sue for libel.  Crook’s false charges easily meet the tough legal standard for determining whether a major media outlet has defamed a public figure — that the publisher had “knowledge that the information was false” or that the information was published “with reckless disregard of whether it was false or not.”  The Atlantic was warned what Crook was doing, but they continue to let him publish unedited, unfact-checked falsehoods.

The magazine’s reputation is on the line here.  This is a far more serious matter than the first post.  Many would consider this a firing offense.  At a minimum, The Atlantic should require Crook’s columns to be fact-checked line by line, as their print magazine was when I wrote a piece for it in 1996.


If you want to send letters to the Atlantic’s editor, James Bennet or to Scott Stossel, Editorial Director, Atlantic Digital, it’s not terribly hard to figure out their e-mail address from the masthead.

ONE FINAL POINT ABOUT FAKE MODERATES

Like many people with closed minds who have drifted further right from the center-right, Crook asserts he is “open-minded” and, later on, of “moderate opinion.”  He asserts that merely supporting some unspecified carbon tax makes him so, even though Bjorn Lomborg and ExxonMobil also do.

In fact, Crook is beyond close minded, and far beyond moderate.  Not only does he make crap up to smear climate scientists without interviewing them.  But, as I noted, his first piece is titled, “Climategate and the Big Green Lie” but the use of the harsh phrase “Big Lie” to smear the greens  is never defended.  The term is very strong,  as Wikipedia explains,
The Big Lie (German: Große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, for a lie so “colossal” that no one would believe that someone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.”
Anyone reading that headline would think Crook is going to layout some elaborate and colossal case against  environmentalists (or whoever the “greens” are –  Crook never says, but at points he seems to conflate “greens” with climate scientists).  The  best he can do is quote the rarely right Walter Russell Mead:
The Big Lie is that the green movement is a source of coherent or responsible counsel about what to do [about global warming].
But that doesn’t come close to the level of a “Big Lie,” assuming it is even a lie at all.   Every group thinks they are a source of coherent and responsible counsel about what to do about the policy issues they care about.  It is absurd to call that a “Big Lie.”  It renders the term meaningless.  He goes on to say:
He’s right, of course, that the green movement is not trusted as an adviser on what to do. So what? Its counsel on policy is not required.
This is what passes for open-minded at the Atlantic Monthly:  Falsehood- and fabrication-filled smears on climate scientists and a rejection out of hand of any possibility that environmentalists should be listened to on policy.

Link:  http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/04/atlantic-editor-clive-crook-fabricates-another-quote-to-smear-michael-mann/#comment-289021

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Enbridge Oil Disaster: Tar sands piped from Canada through the heart of America -- 1 million gallons threaten Lake Michigan -- do we need the Keystone XL Project?

Enbridge Oil Disaster

On July 26, 2010, a pipeline owned by Alberta, Canada-based Enbridge Inc. ruptured from unknown causes, gushing tar sands oil into a nearby creek until Monday morning before Enbridge shut off the flow.

The EPA reports 1 million gallons have spilled into Michigan's Battle Creek, which feeds the Kalamazoo River and empties into Lake Michigan. Over 24 miles of river are already stained with "impressive slugs of oil," and the flow is now threatening to poison one of the great lakes. This new environmental disaster may be the worst oil spill in U.S. Midwest history, and comes at time when the nation is still feeling the sting of an ongoing tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico.

Like BP, Enbridge has constantly assured government and citizens that its operations are safe, and many in the pipeline industry have exploited the gulf tragedy to tout Canadian tar sands as a safer alternative to deepwater drilling. In light of this new spill, we can see that's simply not true.

The State Department is in the process of approving a massive expansion of the Canadian crude pipeline network, called the Keystone XL project. This pipeline would carry an additional 900,000 barrels of tar sands crude into the US every day, exposing more American communities and fragile freshwater ecosystems to spills like the Kalamazoo River disaster. The new proposed pipeline will cut directly through the Ogallala aquifer, which supplies water to 27% of the irrigated land in the United States.

Did NASA (under the Cheney/Bush regime) mislead the media about the DSCOVR Climate Project?

Did NASA mislead the media about the DSCOVR Climate Project?

[Readers, if any of you has an update on the status of this satellite, please let me know.]

by Mitchell Anderson, DeSmogBlog, April 18, 2008

New information provided by inside sources to DeSmogBlog raises questions about public statements from NASA when asked by the media about the cost of launching Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR).
The date was January 24, 2008. Four NASA senior brass had just finished delivering a rambling one hour news briefing on their much-maligned Earth sciences program -- noteworthy only in that there was no news. No new announcements. No new missions.

Seth Borenstein, the science reporter for Associated Press rose to ask the first question, specifically about why NASA had not launched DSCOVR.

This spacecraft is already built at a cost of over $100 million to NASA yet has remained mothballed for years, due ostensibly to “competing priorities.” DSCOVR is designed to view the planet from the unique vantage point of one million miles distant, and according to leading researchers would immediately settle any remaining debate on the origins or seriousness of global warming.

NASA Associate Administrator Alan Stern responded to Mr. Borenstein’s pointed question by saying that it was largely a matter of money:

The analysis that I have seen indicates that its about a $200 million project to bring the satellite back to readiness for flight, to do the launch, and the flight mission.”

$200 million seems like a lot. Was Mr. Borenstein told the truth? Perhaps not.

It seems there is a 193-page document dated February 2006 entitled “Solar Wind Trade Study” that details to cost of refurbishing, launching and operating DSCOVR in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Interestingly, the document was neither released nor referenced in any of the materials accessed through recent freedom of information requests, either to NASA or NOAA.

For the record, I had requested “any records, reports, correspondence, emails, memos, minutes, or other documents whatsoever touching on, or relating to the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) from the period January 1, 2000 to the present.”

However, sources close to the mission have confirmed the document exists and provided selected details of its contents. DeSmog Blog is of course happy to share these details with the entire world.

In 2006, NOAA requested that the mission be transferred to them. NASA has never responded. This report was pivotal to this request and explored three cost sharing scenarios between NOAA and NASA to launch and operate DSCOVR.

The cheap scenario would see DSCOVR fly on a Ukrainian Tsyklon rocket – the most reliable launch vehicle in the world. The total cost of this mission would be around $80 million to launch and operate DSCOVR for five years.

The catch is that this bare bones scenario would only allow DSCOVR to monitor solar storms to provide early warning for low earth orbit satellites from space weather. This scenario would not provide funding for DSCOVR to monitor the Earth.

The medium cost scenario would see DSCOVR launched on an American-built Space X rocket at a cost of approximately $55 million to NASA and the remainder covered by NOAA. This would pay for refurbishing, launching and operating DSCOVR for five years and include the important Earth-monitoring and climate measurements that spacecraft was designed to do.

The high-cost scenario involves launching DSCOVR on a Delta rocket at a cost of about $160 million, shared between NASA and NOAA.

NASA has reasons to oppose option one, including a bureaucratic requirement to “fly American”, both for personnel receiving NASA funding, and its spacecraft. Even if the Tsyklon is a better, cheaper, more reliable launch vehicle than anything produced in the US, this option is a non-starter for the pencil pushers in NASA HQ.

However option two would not be verboten, given that the Space X rocket is built in US. This would only cost NASA a mere $55 million, not $200 million as Alan Stern told Seth Borenstein at the January NASA news briefing.

To put this in perspective, the $55 million it would cost NASA to refurbish, launch and operate DSCOVR for five years is a mere 0.3% of NASA’s annual budget. It is also less than 3% of what the space agency spends every year on the International Space Station – an orbiting installation that has been derided by many in the scientific community as entirely useless.

So why didn’t NASA brass share this with Mr. Borenstein?

Why wasn’t this report released (or referenced) in materials provided to Desmog Blog through freedom of information requests addressed to NASA, NOAA or the Whitehouse?

What exactly are these government agencies trying to hide?

DeSmog Blog will keep digging for information on this critical issue. Stay tuned…

Link:  http://www.desmogblog.com/did-nasa-mislead-the-media-about-the-dscovr-climate-project

Seth Borenstein, AP: US top scientists urge coal, oil use penalties

US top scientists urge coal, oil use penalties

by Seth Borenstein, Associated Press, May 15, 2010

Ditching its past cautious tone, the nation's top scientists urged the government Wednesday to take drastic action to raise the cost of using coal and oil to slow global warming.

The National Academy of Sciences specifically called for a carbon tax on fossil fuels or a cap-and-trade system for curbing greenhouse gas emissions, calling global warming an urgent threat.

The academy, which advises the government on scientific matters, said the nation needs to cut the pollution that causes global warming by about 57% to 83% by 2050. That's close to President Barack Obama's goal.


"We really need to get started right away. It's not opinion, it's what the science tells you," said Robert Fri, who chaired one of the three panels producing separate climate reports.

Fri was acting Environmental Protection Agency chief under President Richard Nixon and until recently on the board of American Electric Power Co., a major producer of carbon dioxide. "The country needs both a prompt and a sustained commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions," he said Wednesday.

In the past, the academy has called climate change a problem, but it has never recommended a specific policy. The impetus for its bolder stance now was a set of questions posed by Congress on climate change and how to deal with it.

The cap-and-trade idea, which is supported by the Obama administration, has been proposed for several years in Congress but never passed the Senate. It would set overall limits on carbon dioxide pollution, but would allow companies to pollute more by paying for it and buying pollution credits from cleaner companies.
Last year, the House approved a cap-and-trade bill, but it stalled in the Senate as health care legislation took center stage. A new version, that doesn't use the cap-and-trade phrase but has similar characteristics, was introduced last week. Lawmakers have pledged a floor vote on the bill this summer.

The national academy is an elite independent organization chartered to give the federal government advice on science and technical matters. Being elected as an academy member is considered a major honor for a scientist.

In a series of three reports, the academy tried to illustrate the challenge ahead by describing tons of polluting gases as money in a budget. America is on an escalating trajectory to blow its budget. The budget allows for the use of 170-200 billion tons between now and 2050. In 2008, America spewed 7 billion tons of greenhouse gas.

"If we continue at the same rate we're going, we're going to use that up quickly, which is the case for urgency," said panel member Ed Rubin, an engineering and public policy professor at Carnegie Mellon University.

Panel members said it's unusual for the academy to be so blunt about what needs to be done. But Congress asked the academy in 2008 to answer four questions, starting with: "What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate change?" Panel members said that is what gave them freedom to say more about what needs to be done.

The three documents issued Wednesday come after a winter in which mainstream climate science took a beating because of leaked e-mails from a British university and errors revealed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report. And in December despite dozens of world leaders seeking a climate deal in Copenhagen, countries could not agree to renew and tighten mandatory curbs on greenhouse gas emissions.
All the criticism and inaction spurred the national academy to deliver a sharper message, said Pam Matson, dean of earth sciences at Stanford University, who chaired one of the three panels.

Change is occurring in warmer temperatures, melting ice caps, sea rise and many other areas that have been carefully studied, Matson said. Future changes will include water and food shortages in many areas, more heat waves and increased intense rainfall in some regions.

The reports agree with the international climate panel's assessment that climate change is already occurring "and poses significant risks for -- and in many cases is already affecting -- a broad range of human and natural systems."

White House science adviser John Holdren praised the group's work as "well-documented in their science ... and compelling in their conclusions about policy." He said he hoped members of Congress would read the reports or at least their summaries.

Also on Wednesday, the journal Nature published a study suggesting the world's oceans are absorbing more heat from global warming than previously thought. Scientists from the U.S. and Japan estimated the amount of energy swallowed by the oceans since 1993, a figure roughly equivalent to more than 2 billion Hiroshima-sized bombs.

"It's just a huge amount of energy," said John Lyman, an oceanographer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's research institute in Seattle.

Oceans absorb about 90% of the heat from global warming and scientists have struggled for years to quantify it. Co-author Josh Willis, an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, said the amount calculated in the study translates to warming the top 2,300 feet of the world's oceans by about three-tenths of a degree.

Outside experts praised the study, saying ocean heat content is going to be one of the key indicators of climate change.

Science Writer Randolph E. Schmid contributed to this report.

Link:  http://www.salon.com/wires/techbiz/2010/05/19/D9FPUU900_us_sci_climate_reports/index.html

Monday, August 2, 2010

Ok, so are we gonna call the Northwest Passage open, or not?

Ok, so are we gonna call the Northwest Passage open, or not?

Sorry, folks, the site where I get these images did not provide any for the last days of July, but now don't you think we can call it open?

Image from August 2, 2010 (click on image to enlarge):

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Post-modern post-normalism disease strikes Virginia Heffernan who didn't have the brains to realize that WUWT is a denialist junk-science blog!

Post-modern post-normalism disease strikes Virginia Heffernan who didn't have the brains to realize that WUWT is a denialist junk-science blog!

Virginia Heffernan, a what-passes-for-a-journalist-nowadays writer at The New York Times, did not do enough fact-checking to find out that WUWT is one of the greatest lying blogs of the Climate Denial Machine -- who fed this blog's name to her?  Look what she writes!  She writes that WUWT is credible!  Is this not incredible!?!  WUWT, right up there with Scientific American and Discover Magazine -- Give me a break!  If any science is "unnatural," it is the junk science on WUWT.  

The New York Times once again shows that it is part and parcel of the Climate Denial Machine. Please do write to her and let her know what you think.

Points of Entry: This Week's Recommendations
SEMPER SCI

For science that’s accessible but credible, steer clear of polarizing hatefests like atheist or eco-apocalypse blogs. Instead, check out scientificamerican.com, discovermagazine.com and Anthony Watts’s blog, Watts Up With That?  
Link:  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/magazine/01FOB-medium-t.html

Here is her lame excuse (boy! she sure sounds like Judith Curry! ): 

Comment by Virginia Heffernan on NeuronCulture.com, July 31, 2010

One regret: the Watts blog. Virtually everyone who emailed me pointed out that it’s as axe-grinding as anything out there. I linked to it because has a lively voice; it’s detail-oriented and seemingly not snide; and, above all, it has some beautiful images I’d never seen before. I’m a stranger to the debates on science blogs, so I frankly didn’t recognize the weatherspeak on the blog as “denialist”; I didn’t even know about denialism. I’m don’t endorse the views on the Watts blog, and I’m extremely sorry the recommendation seemed ideological.
All best,
Virginia Heffernan
heffernan@nytimes.com

Link:  http://www.neuronculture.com/http:/www.neuronculture.com/archives/for-virginia-hefferman-readers-some-contexst-on-the-scienceblogs-pepsi-fizz#comment-1859

Hundreds of new wildfires break out in Russia

Hundreds of new wildfires break out in Russia




VORONEZH, Russia – Hundreds of new fires broke out Sunday in Russian forests and fields that have been dried to a crisp by drought and record heat, but firefighters claimed success in bringing some of the wildfires raging around cities under control.
The firefighters got much-needed help from residents desperate to save their homes, who shoveled sand onto the flames and carted water in large plastic bottles.
The wildfires that began threatening much of western Russia last week have killed 28 people and destroyed or damaged 77 towns or villages, the Emergencies Ministry said. Thousands of people have been evacuated from areas in the path of flames, but no deaths have been recorded since late Wednesday.
Troops and volunteers have joined tens of thousands of firefighters in combating the fires, which blazed just outside Moscow and in several provinces east and south of the capital.
The region around Voronezh, a city of 850,000 people about 300 miles (475 km) south of Moscow, has been one of the worst hit. Half of the 300 homes in the village of Maslovka were reduced to cinders.
Emergencies Ministry spokeswoman Yelena Chernova said fires in the Voronezh region were under control Sunday and no longer threatened any population centers.
But woodlands on the edge of the city, about a mile (1.5 km) from some houses, continued to burn. Firefighters sprayed water from hoses and dumped it from the air onto the blaze, while local residents pitched in on the ground.
Some 320 new fires broke out Sunday, but 210 were extinguished, the Emergencies Ministry said, while the total territory ablaze shrank by thousands of acres to about 316,000 acres (128,000 hectares). No homes were damaged by fire during the weekend, it said.
Fires have devastated the regions around Nizhny Novgorod, Russia's fifth-largest city, and the city of Ryazan, just southeast of Moscow. They also were moving into regions farther to the east such as Mordovia and Tatarstan.
Smokey air has settled over cities, already baking in the heat, and many residents complain of headaches and intestinal ailments. In Moscow, the smog has come mainly from fires in dried-up peat bogs in outlying regions. The peat, which is high in carbon, can ignite and smolder underground, giving off dangerous fumes.
Much of western and central Russia is suffering through a severe drought, thought to be the worst since 1972, in what has been the hottest summer since record-keeping began 130 years ago. This year's harvest was already in trouble, and the fires have finished off vast fields of golden wheat and other crops.
Temperatures have topped 95 °F (35 °C) for much of the past three weeks, with an all-time high of close to 100 °f (38 °C) recorded in Moscow last week.
Emergency officials said the heat and drought were the main cause of the fires, but they also blamed human carelessness and urged people to use extreme caution when walking or driving in the woods or countryside.
"Any source of fire, including a cigarette thrown from a car window, will ignite the dried grass," the emergency services said in a statement.
Associated Press writer Lynn Berry in Moscow contributed to this report.
Link:  

A dark ideology is driving those who deny climate change: People who claim that climate science is a conspiracy or the work of charlatans are talking rubbish, by Robin McKie

A dark ideology is driving those who deny climate change

People who claim that climate science is a conspiracy or the work of charlatans are talking rubbish

by Robin McKie, The Observer, August 1, 2010

Life can be hard in Moscow. The Russian capital is sweltering in temperatures that reached a record 37.7 °C [later it reached over 38 °C] last week. Vast stretches of peat bog surrounding the city have dried out and caught fire covering Moscow with choking smog. The changing of the horse guard in Cathedral Square was cancelled as sentries wilted in traditional woollen uniforms. Elsewhere, more than 2,000 Russians – many drunk – drowned trying to cool off in lakes and rivers and at least 10 million hectares of crops have been ruined. States of emergency have been declared in 23 regions.

Nor is Russia alone. New York has baked in a thick tropical heat and humidity that is gripping eastern America. Public cooling centres have been set up while black-outs are common. In the Arctic, sea ice coverage continues to dwindle while a report last week revealed that levels of phytoplankton – tiny marine plants that are the foundation of the oceans' food chain – are plummeting, victims of global warming.

Our world is starting to sizzle as rising levels of greenhouse gases trap more and more of the sun's heat in the lower atmosphere – a point that was confirmed on Wednesday when the Met Office reported that sensors from around the world were showing that 2010 would be the hottest, or just possibly the second hottest year on record.

Either way, the news surprised many people, despite those tales emanating from New York and Moscow. A freezing UK winter and the collapse of the Copenhagen climate talks – along with the damaging leak of "climategate" emails from the University of East Anglia – had persuaded many that global warming was a dead issue. If only.

In fact, that record rise in global temperatures, far from appearing unexpectedly had been predicted. Last January, the Met Office announced that it believed this year would, indeed, be a record scorcher. Given that Britain was then coated in thick snow, the prediction was brave.

It was accurate nevertheless. Western Europe and eastern America may then have been going through a grim, cold winter but other areas – including Asia and western America – were experiencing unexpectedly hot weather. The overall trend was a warming one. Few took notice, however, and the Little Englander's myopic view of the world – that only local events matter – continued to dominate newspaper columns and blogs. Global warming was nonsense, they insisted.

Thus the deniers got it wrong while climate scientists got it spectacularly right. Indeed, we should note just how prescient the latter have been. In 1999, the Met Office's head of climate modelling Peter Stott – working with Oxford University's Myles Allen and other meteorologists – published a paper in Nature on the likely impact of greenhouse gas emissions. Using temperature data from 1946 to 1996, the paper estimated future global temperatures and included a graph of a range of predicted outcomes for 2000 to 2040 with a dotted line indicating the most likely path. Crucially, for the year 2010, that dotted line showed there would be a rise of 0.8 °C since the Second World War– which is exactly what we are experiencing today.

So scientists not only predicted how hot this year was likely to be six months ago, they forecast a decade ago just how much the world would heat up 10 years later. Bear this in mind when deniers tell you climate science is a conspiracy or the work of charlatans. They are talking rubbish.

Such precision is encouraging for it indicates climate scientists know what they are talking about, though at a deeper level, the news is disturbing – for it is clear that few people are actually listening to this message. Why? What lies behind scientists' failure to get their warning over? Most answers have concentrated on the difficulty of explaining science – riddled as it is with uncertainties and qualifications. And to some extent, these explanations are correct. Atmospheric physics and meteorology are complex. However, there is a second, more sinister explanation, one that forms the focus of Merchants of Doubt, by US academics Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, which is to be published this month by Bloomsbury. This analysis of right-wing politics and its impact on science shows how a handful of individuals have managed to obscure the truth on issues that range from the dangers of smoking to global warming. These right-wing libertarians include such scientists as Fred Seitz and Fred Singer – who both worked on the Cold War projects such as the US hydrogen bomb project and who helped set up institutions like the US's Heritage Foundation and Marshall Institute.

Funded by corporations and conservative foundations, these outfits exist to fight any form of state intervention or regulation of US citizens. Thus they fought, and delayed, smoking curbs in the 1970s even though medical science had made it clear the habit was a major cancer risk. And they have been battling ever since, blocking or holding back laws aimed at curbing acid rain, ozone-layer depletion, and – mostly recently – global warming.

In each case the tactics are identical: discredit the science, disseminate false information, spread confusion, and promote doubt. As the authors state: "Small numbers of people can have large, negative impacts, especially if they are organised, determined and have access to power."

In Britain, links between deniers and big business are less obvious. Yet it is clear lessons have been learned and tactics copied. Consider these examples: the leaking of the "climategate" emails and the wild over-reaction to the mistaken insertion of a paragraph in the IPCC's last climate assessment, that suggested wrongly that Himalayan glaciers are melting rapidly. Both created a furore with the former revealing "a massive fraud" that represented "the final nail in the coffin" for the theory of global warming, deniers argued.
This claim was later shown to be nonsense, though it took three inquiries to establish the point. The overall effect, however, was the spread of confusion among the public and an increase in doubt about climate change. And given that the email leak involved a specific act of computer hacking, one must conclude this was the specific goal of that electronic "break-in."
 
In this way, scientists' warnings – that without action the world will get at least two degrees hotter this century – have been obscured by a small group of ideologues who believe individual liberties are more important than any other cause. Our planet may burn, millions may die, and cities such as Moscow and New York may smoulder, but at least we will be free of petty regulation and bureaucracy.

It seems a stiff price to pay.

Link:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/aug/01/climate-change-robin-mckie

Joseph Romm: Lost in translation: In a Brazilian interview, Judith Curry incluir uma cena demasiado longa ou uma variação do tema de um programa de televisão indicando que este está com os seus dias contados, (i.e., more Currygate), or Tenney Naumer's 15 minutes of blogosphere fame

Lost in translation: In a Brazilian interview, Judith Curry incluir uma cena demasiado longa ou uma variação do tema de um programa de televisão indicando que este está com os seus dias contados


And you'll never guess who else is in the post-normal fan club!

by Joseph Romm, Climate Progress, August 1, 2010
 



Judith Curry, tribal elder for the confusionists, has now jumped the shark in two languages.

As Wikipedia explains, “Jumping the shark is an idiom used to describe the moment of downturn for a previously successful enterprise. The phrase was originally used to denote the point in a television program’s history where the plot spins off into absurd story lines or unlikely characterizations.  These changes were often the result of efforts to revive interest in a show whose audience had begun to decline, usually through the employment of different actors, writers or producers.”

Bingo.

Tenney Naumer, who blogs from Brazil on climate change, just posted, “More Currygate: Judith Curry has spread disinformation in Brazil. Interview from Época magazine, May 1, 2010.”  Tenney did the translations and issues the often-crucial, often-ignored advice, “head vise warning in effect!”

For me, the confusing confusionist interview itself is not as fascinating as something I discovered in the course of writing this post.

[Note: For a change of pace, and since the subject seems to call for it, I'm going to try a Rabett Run approach here.  Do read his new post on Jindal and the berms.  I digress.]

If you plug the phrase “jump the shark” into Google Translate into Portuguese, you get “pular o tubarão.”  If you plug that into Babylon 8, “the most popular translation software,” you get back “jump the shark.”

Ah, but if you plug “jump the shark” into Babylon, you get:  “incluir uma cena demasiado longa ou uma variação do tema de um programa de televisão indicando que este está com os seus dias contados.”
Babylon gets big kudos for this effort to explain the idiom, since if you plug that into Google, you get:
include a scene too long or a variation on the theme of a television program indicating that it is with its days numbered
And so it is with Dr. Curry’s interview.

Indeed I think it is a brilliant strategy for the confusionist tribe to grant interviews in foreign languages, since it (1) makes them more confusing and (2) gives them an extra layer of plausible deniability.

Curry famously walked back her paraphrasing of Montford’s attacks on the Hockey Stick after NASA’s Gavin Schmidt eviscerated them (see “Hockey Stick fight at the RC Corral“):
Gavin, the post I made in #167 was a summary of Montford’s book as closely as I can remember it, sort of a review. I did not particularly bring in my personal opinions into this, other than the framing of montford’s points. So asking me to retract a point made in a book in a review of that book is, well, pointless. your attempt to rebut my points are full of logical fallacies and arguing at points i didn’t make. As a result, Montford’s theses look even more convincing. Once you’e in a hole, you can try to climb out or keep digging. Well keep digging, Gavin. My final words: read the book.
[Response: Thanks for passing by. In future I will simply assume you are a conduit for untrue statements rather than their originator. And if we are offering advice, might I suggest that you actually engage your critical faculties before demanding that others waste their time rebutting nonsense. I, for one, have much better things to do. - gavin]
http://games.gearlive.com/blogimages/head_asplode.jpg

Whatever else you can say about Curry, she is also very good at refusing to define her terms or clarify her open-ended smears on the integrity and judgment of climate scientists — no matter how often you ask.

So who knows what she is trying to say in this Brazilian interview, since, as Tenney emails me, it seems rather unlikely that Curry is fluent in Portuguese.

I’m reposting this because:
  1. It is a cautionary tale for anybody  giving interviews in foreign languages on the subject this complex and nuanced.
  2. It’s laugh-out-loud [cry-out-loud?] funny.
  3. In this theater-of-the-absurd version of the children’s game of telephone, the reporter got one thing right:  “The confusion began at the end of last year, when Judith….”  As for when the confusion will end, who can say?
Here is Tenney’s translation:
Judith Curry: “I am not afraid of the climate”
American researcher says that there is still a lot of uncertainty about global warming
by Alexandre Mansur, Época, May 1, 2010
Hurricanes are a speciality of Judith Curry, director of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S.A. Now she is in the eye of the storm. The confusion began at the end of last year, when Judith criticized the publications of researchers Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, and Phil Jones, of the University of East Anglia, in the U.K., accused of distorting scientific data, via the released e-mails. Jones and Mann were cleared by investigations of the universities and by a British scientific committee. But Judith affirms that the problem of credibility is not over. She does not question that the Earth is warming. Nor that this is caused by human emissions. But she affirms that the catastrophic predictions emitted by the IPCC, a panel of scientists put together by the UN, are exaggerated.

WHO IS SHE?
She is the director of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, in the U.S.
WHAT DOES SHE DO?
Has recently published articles in which she criticized climatologists, members of the IPCC, the UN panel
SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE
Was on the board of the Society of American Meteorologists. Edited the Journal of Applied Meteorology. Worked for NASA, the American space agency
ÉPOCA – Do you have any fear of the consequences of climate change?
Judith Curry – There exist significant risks associated with them. This whole question of how “dangerous” is climate change has not been adequately evaluated. But I am not personally afraid of this.
ÉPOCA – Are scientists fulfilling their mission to inform the public?
Curry – The public’s perception that global warming is a planetary emergency probably had its peak between 2005 and 2007, with Hurricane Katrina and Al Gore’s film.  Since then, interest has been falling. The skepticism of climate change now questions if the impacts of warming are large or predominantly adverse. And if anything can be done to improve the situation. The public debate has deteriorated into attempts to discredit or censor scientists. And what we see is propaganda in order to influence the politics, and not to inform the public.
ÉPOCA – What is the risk of this? 
Curry – Many researchers, genuinely worried about the risks of warming, including myself, are disappointed by the political decisions for confronting the climate challenge. To begin with, I believe it is necessary to make changes to the IPCC, in order to reestablish its credibility. The process needs to be more open. It is necessary to improve the selection of authors and reviewers. A team of inspectors should supervise the process and investigate complaints. Due to the release of the e-mails, we must change the manner in which we evaluate the uncertainties. Many times, in the IPCC reports, the mere judgment of a specialist replaces the degree of uncertainty of the data of a rigorous scientific analysis. We are talking about the imprecision in the time of adjusting the temperature data in order to compensate for the effects of urban heat (the growth of cities, with a concentration of cement and asphalt, artificially increases the temperature of the region). Or to fill in regions of the Earth where there are no data available.
ÉPOCA – What do we still not know about climate change?
Curry – There are still many uncertainties. They are associated with the records of temperatures in the past. And also the climate models that researchers run on their computers to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere and to make estimates of the future.
ÉPOCA – It possible that science will be able to establish the degree of seriousness of the climate crisis? 
Curry – They do not know with certainty how much of the warming that occurred in the 20th century can be attributed to human activity. And the projections for warming for this century are not exact.
ÉPOCA – Do we need to wait until these uncertainties are reduced or eliminated before we make decisions that avoid the worst consequences of climate change?
Curry – This is not what I am suggesting. The uncertainties cannot be eliminated. We make decisions all the time in uncertain situations. It is that the degree of imprecision should be taken into consideration in the decision process. The chances of tragic consequences due to warming are at a minimum at least as great as arms of mass destruction in Iraq would have been. In the end, they did not exist, but we went to war anyway. We have a history of deciding to act in order to avoid bad things even when the probability is low.
“No one knows how much of the warming that occurred in the second half of the twentieth century can be attributed to human action”
ÉPOCA – How can we tell the legitimate skeptics from the industry lobbyists who just want to increase confusion? 
Curry – The fundamental question turns on the data and scientific models. A genuine skeptic puts forth arguments and will debate these in scientific journals or technical blogs.
ÉPOCA – Do you see a lobby campaign by the fossil-fuel industry to increase confusion? 
Curry – This also exists. But I do not see it as an important factor in skepticism in general in relation to climate change. The majority of people who write against the control of emissions use political or economic arguments. They are not concerned with the science. You can’t even call them skeptics. There are other skeptics who have a background in science. But few of them receive any money from oil or coal companies.  Entities like the American Enterprise Institute or the Competitive Enterprise Institute are preoccupied with the politics that could affect the competitiveness of the U.S. and our economy. So, they spend time and money organizing conferences and demanding information from climate researchers.
ÉPOCA – How do you view the controversy generated by the e-mails that were taken from the University of East Anglia?
Curry – The e-mails fed the concern about the methods used to construct the chronology of temperatures on Earth’s surface over the last 1,000 years. It is call the “hockey stick” (that shows a long period of lower temperatures and a sharp increase in the most recent years, like the end of a hockey stick).  Also, the e-mails raised doubts about the behavior of the scientists in relation to the process of evaluation by colleagues of each study, before it is published in scientific journals. And maybe there were even violations of the Freedom of Information Act (or FOA, as it is abbreviated in English, a law that gives a citizen the right to ask for access to secret government documents).
ÉPOCA – Do the messages exchanged between Michael Mann and Phil Jones demonstrate any sign of improper conduct?
Curry – There exist various investigations for evaluating this. From what I know, the answer would be “yes.”
ÉPOCA – The investigations by the British scientific committee and the University of Pennsylvania exonerated Mann and Jones. 
Curry – I agree with the conclusion of the investigations that there was no evidence of incorrect scientific conduct. I did not see a sign of plagiarism or falsification of data in the work of the scientists. Not using all the data, selecting data arbitrarily and using inappropriate statistical methods do not fall under incorrect conduct. But also it does not inspire confidence in the product of the research. The behavior of these scientists, such as disqualifying critics and showing little transparency, delaying the public availability of the temperature data they used. But I think it is time to stop focusing on individual behavior and to start a reevaluation of the entire process of the IPCC’s scientific evaluation.
ÉPOCA – What needs to change in the IPCC?
Curry – It needs to be more open to different opinions and to external verification. There is a rush to publish articles in scientific journals just before the IPCC closes. Clearly, scientists want their work to be included. There is the perception that the best way to get your work included is to support the basic narrative of the IPCC. And the scientists of the IPCC tried to disqualify researchers who published articles with contrarian opinions. Thus, in order to continue to be relevant, the IPCC can no longer limit itself to summarizing the scientific literature every five years. It needs to open the range of scientific views about warming and the political options for confronting it.
I won’t even try to debunk this because, frankly, halfway through reading it my vise failed containment and now I have to clean up a grey gooey mess all over my office –  I hate it when that happens!

And even if the translation back to English were 100% accurate, who knows if the interviewer got the original translation right — assuming Curry wasn’t speaking Portuguese.  She can clear that up if she wants.  Don’t hold your breath, unless you’re in the Tea Party (see below).

One final point.  I had never heard of this “postnormal” science stuff until Curry started using the phrase in the comments of my earlier post:
  • “Joe, what I’ve done is something very old fashioned in this postnormal, tribalistic environment”
  • “argument of Jerome Ravetz (associated with postnormal science)”
It seemed like another ill-defined term that allows users to smear science and scientists without actually defining their terms — see my reply to Curry here.

Now a faithful reader sends me an online chat that Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli did after his absurdly soft ball profile in the Washington Post Magazine published today.  Although you wouldn’t know it from the profile, Cuccinelli is an anti-science pro-pollution extremist, whose actions have been denounced by leading scientists and the Washington Post editorial board itself:
This is from the chat:
Richmond VA: Mr. Cuccinelli, I want to thank you for making yourself available to answer questions from the public. My question is in regards to your stand on climate change, a topic on which you have put a great deal of focus considering your position as attorney general. Do you think that our green house gas emissions have no impact on the environment? Also, would you consider yourself an environmentalist? Under what circumstances would you put the health of the natural world above the desires of man and business?
Ken Cuccinelli: I presume that all emissions have SOME impact. However, it appears that some or much of the science surrounding determing the nature and scope of climate change may be either uncertain or severely biased. E.g., check “post-normal science” on wikipedia, google or bing.
I always want to see us pursuing a balance b/n the needs of mankind, including the need to make a living, and the conservation of our environment. Strikingly, that kind of attempt at balance appears to be badly lacking at EPA… leading to some conflicts b/n Va. and EPA.
Hmm.  That  kind of reads like a re-translation, too.

I have a new phrase for Cuccinelli and Curry:  post-normal climate.   After more than 10,000 years of relatively stable climate that allowed modern human civilization to develop and ’sustain’  several billion people, post-normal climate is what you get when you ignore decades of observation and research and warnings by the overwhelming majority of the world’s climate scientists, leading scientific organizations, major journals, and National Academies of Science around the world.  It’s what you get when you demonize real science and try to label it post-normal or tribalistic or severely biased.

What does a post-normal climate look like?  Well, of course nobody knows for certain, and nobody rational wants to find out, but we have some paleoclimate clues:
Assuming we keep listening to those who keep blowing smoke into our faces by focusing on trivialities and the emails of individual scientists rather than working as hard as possible to explain to the public the overwhelming body of scientific evidence, then it probably looks something like this:  Hell and High Water.

Hmm.  Might need to do a whole post on post-normal climate.

Apologies to Eli if this was all lost in translation!

Link:  http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/01/lost-in-translation-in-a-brazilian-interview-judith-curry-incluir-uma-cena-demasiado-longa-ou-uma-variacao-do-tema-de-um-programa-de-televisao-indicando-que-este-esta-com-os-seus-dias-contados/#comment-288338

Posts for July 2010

Posts for July 2010: