tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5795493410204216782024-03-14T13:49:03.673-05:00Climate Change: The Next GenerationWhen we see records being broken and unprecedented events such as this, the onus is on those who deny any connection to climate change to prove their case. Global warming has fundamentally altered the background conditions that give rise to all weather. In the strictest sense, all weather is now connected to climate change. Kevin Trenberth<p></p>
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Now at 8,800+ articles. <b>HIT THE PAGE DOWN KEY TO SEE THE POSTS</b>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.comBlogger8997125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-48452063261665422532024-01-14T20:34:00.000-06:002024-01-14T20:34:25.084-06:00Tamino's latest on the September 2024 temperature anomaly<p><a href="https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/01/09/2-fast-2-furious/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/01/09/2-fast-2-furious/</a></p>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-33737075269789214722023-07-09T11:11:00.004-05:002023-07-09T11:11:53.818-05:00Unofficial Temperature Records on July 9, 2023<p>This was copied from http://coolwx.com/record/ which is published by a noted climate change denier. Apparently, he does not believe his own data. </p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">LEGEND OF UNOFFICIAL RECORDS:</span></p><center style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><table border="1"><tbody><tr><td></td><td><span><center>Daily Close</center></span></td><td><span><center>Daily Tied</center></span></td><td rowspan="3"><span style="color: white;">.</span></td><td><span><center>Daily Broken</center></span></td><td><span><center>Monthly<br />Tied/Broken</center></span></td><td><span><center>All-time<br />Tied/Broken</center></span></td></tr><tr><td><span>HIGH<br />RECORD</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><center><span>##.#</span></center></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><center><span>##.#</span></center></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span style="color: white;"><center><span>##.#</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#ff00ff"><span style="color: white;"><center><span>##.#</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#000000"><span style="color: white;"><center><span>##.#</span></center></span></td></tr><tr><td><span>LOW<br />RECORD</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ffff"><center><span>##.#</span></center></td><td bgcolor="#3399ff"><center><span>##.#</span></center></td><td bgcolor="#0000ff"><span style="color: white;"><center><span>##.#</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#000088"><span style="color: white;"><center><span>##.#</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#000000"><span style="color: white;"><center><span>##.#</span></center></span></td></tr></tbody></table></center><p style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: -webkit-center;"><a name="tablet">Table Units: [ Fahrenheit | </a><a href="http://coolwx.com/record/indexc.php#tablet" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><u>Celsius</u></a> ]</p><table border="1"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center><b>ID</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span>City</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span>Country</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Current<br />Temp &<br />Trend<br />(°F)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Unofficial Daily /<br />Monthly /<br />Alltime<br />Record (°F)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Margin of<br />Unofficial<br />Daily<br />Record (°F)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Database<br />Length<br />(years)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center><b>ID</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDVE</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Braunschweig</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 84.7 100.4 102.2<br /><i>(1984) (2022) (1992)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+6.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>45</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDVE</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Stuttgart-Echterdingen</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 98.6 106.0<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (1941)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+5.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>68</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSZH</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Zurich-Kloten</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Switzerland</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 90.0 98.6 100.4<br /><i>(1959) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+5.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>65</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSZH</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFSX</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Luxeuil</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">96.8 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.5 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(1984) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+4.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFSX</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRX</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Monte Calamita</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 87.8 95.0 99.0<br /><i>(2015) (2020) (2017)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+3.6</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>41</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRX</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDTY</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Schwaebisch Hall</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 96.8 98.6<br /><i>(1984) (2019) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+3.6</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>46</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDTY</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDNY</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Friedrichshafen</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">93.2 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 89.6 98.6 98.6<br /><i>(2010) (2007) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+3.6</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>51</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDNY</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDM</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Munchen</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 87.8 97.5 98.6<br /><i>(2002) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+3.6</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>81</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDM</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDDC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Dresden-Klotzsche</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 87.8 96.8 100.4<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+3.6</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>45</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDDC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFSD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Dijon</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">96.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.2 103.1 103.1<br /><i>(2020) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+3.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFSD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDQM</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Hof</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">89.6 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 86.0 95.0 95.4<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+3.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>65</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDQM</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDFM</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Baden Wurttemberg, Neuostheim</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">98.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 95.0 104.0 104.0<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+3.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>47</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDFM</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFHP</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Le Puy</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 88.0 99.3 99.3<br /><i>(2020) (2015) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+3.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>39</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFHP</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DTTZ</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Tozeur</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Tunisia</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">118.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>115.0 120.6 127.4<br /><i>(2008) (2018) (1979)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+3.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DTTZ</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIVD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Dobbiaco</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">86.0 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 83.1 90.3 95.0<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+2.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIVD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETEB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Ansbach / Katterbach</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">90.9 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 88.7 98.6 98.6<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (1994)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+2.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>63</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETEB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETIK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Illesheim</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">93.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.4 99.7 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (2015) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+2.1</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>69</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETIK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMU</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Capo Mele</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 97.3 98.6<br /><i>(2013) (2022) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>57</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMU</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIMS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Piacenza</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 89.6 102.9 104.7<br /><i>(2012) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>53</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIMS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETSI</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Ingolstadt</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETSI</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSGS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Sion</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Switzerland</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.2 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>65</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSGS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LKKV</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Karlovy Vary</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Czech Republic</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 86.0 94.5 96.4<br /><i>(2010) (2007) (2012)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>42</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LKKV</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDHL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Luebeck-Blankensee</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">89.6 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 87.8 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (1992)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>39</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDHL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Nuernberg</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.2 101.5 101.5<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>67</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDDF</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Frankfurt / M-Flughafen</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">96.8 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 95.0 104.0 104.0<br /><i>(1959) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>81</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDDF</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LKLN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Plzen Line</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Czech Republic</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.8 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(1995) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.6</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LKLN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSGG</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Geneve-Cointrin</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Switzerland</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.4 103.5 103.5<br /><i>(1984) (2015) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>65</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSGG</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Chambery / Aix-Les-Bains</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.6 101.8 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (2015) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHA</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Altenstadt</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">86.0 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 84.7 95.0 95.0<br /><i>(2010) (1984) (1984)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHA</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOXT</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Tulln</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Austria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 90.3 101.5 102.2<br /><i>(2011) (2019) (2013)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.1</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOXT</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Bueckeburg</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 90.3 99.0 100.6<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.1</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRM</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Grazzanise</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">95.0 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.9 103.6 103.6<br /><i>(2012) (2015) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+1.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRM</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DTTD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Remada</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Tunisia</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">114.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>113.7 120.2 120.2<br /><i>(2008) (1981) (1981)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+1.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>52</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DTTD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>CWSA</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Sable Island, N. S.</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Canada</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">73.4 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 72.5 76.6 86.0<br /><i>(2013) (1994) (2016)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+0.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>53</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>CWSA</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LKTB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Brno / Turany</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Czech Republic</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">89.6 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 89.1 97.5 100.0<br /><i>(1991) (2013) (2013)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>61</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LKTB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETOU</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Wiesbaden</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">94.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 94.3 101.8 102.0<br /><i>(1959) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>80</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETOU</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GOOD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Diourbel</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Senegal</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">102.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>101.8 111.2 122.0<br /><i>(1991) (1995) (1987)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+0.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GOOD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETSN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Neuburg / Donau</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.0 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+0.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETSN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ENHD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Haugesund / Karmoy</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Norway</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">73.4 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 73.0 88.2 88.2<br /><i>(2014) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+0.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>39</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ENHD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDE</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Erfurt-Bindersleben</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff0000"><span><center><span style="color: white;">93.2 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.0 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(1959) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>35</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDDE</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>SBIL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Ilheus Aeroporto</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Brazil</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">84.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 84.2 101.1 105.8<br /><i>(1990) (1992) (1995)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>40</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>SBIL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOWS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Salzburg-Flughafen</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Austria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(2002) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>68</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOWS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRE</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Pratica Di Mare</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 89.6 95.4 101.5<br /><i>(2011) (2005) (2007)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>54</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRE</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Bolzano</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 95.0 102.4 104.0<br /><i>(2016) (2022) (1987)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIMG</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Albenga</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.4 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(2015) (1985) (1985)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIMG</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Milano / Malpensa</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.4 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(1983) (2022) (1981)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>57</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFSB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Bale-Mulhouse</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 95.0 102.2 102.4<br /><i>(1984) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFSB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Grenoble / St. Geoirs</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.2 100.9 103.1<br /><i>(2020) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GOGK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Kolda</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Senegal</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">96.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 96.8 111.6 121.8<br /><i>(1998) (2012) (1999)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GOGK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETSL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Lechfeld</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 87.8 98.6 98.6<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>61</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETSL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Niederstetten</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.4 97.0 98.6<br /><i>(2002) (2022) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETHF</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Fritzlar</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.4 100.6 100.6<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>57</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETHF</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDTL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Lahr, CAN-AFB</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.4 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDTL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDJA</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Memmingen Allgau</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 87.8 98.6 98.6<br /><i>(2010) (1984) (1984)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>53</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDJA</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDDV</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Hannover</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.4 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>71</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>EDDV</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DAUL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Laghouat</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Algeria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">107.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>107.6 118.4 118.4<br /><i>(2021) (1981) (1981)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>45</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DAUL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Napoli / Capodichino</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 95.2 102.2 104.0<br /><i>(2002) (1987) (1981)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>62</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMH</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Pian Rosa</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">51.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 52.0 65.8 65.8<br /><i>(1968) (1988) (1988)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>46</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMH</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFSO</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Nancy / Ochey</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 88.0 104.0 104.0<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFSO</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFSN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Nancy / Essey</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.8 104.2 104.2<br /><i>(1982) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>52</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFSN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GFLL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Lungi</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Sierra Leone</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 86.2 104.0 105.8<br /><i>(1989) (1973) (1973)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>45</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GFLL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETIH</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Hohenfels</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.4 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(1995) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>58</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETIH</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LKPR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Praha / Ruzyne</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Czech Republic</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 90.0 97.3 99.3<br /><i>(1959) (1983) (2012)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>66</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LKPR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETHL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Laupheim</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 88.2 98.6 98.6<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETHL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DAUK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Touggourt</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Algeria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">116.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>117.0 121.1 121.1<br /><i>(2012) (2018) (2018)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>51</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DAUK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIME</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Bergamo / Orio Al Serio</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 90.1 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(1995) (1983) (1979)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>54</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIME</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GMMZ</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Ouarzazate</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Morocco</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">105.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>106.3 109.0 110.5<br /><i>(2018) (2017) (2006)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>53</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GMMZ</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETAR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Ramstein</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">92.7 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.2 101.3 101.7<br /><i>(1984) (2019) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>69</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETAR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>CYQI</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Yarmouth, N. S.</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Canada</span></td><td bgcolor="#ff7f00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">78.8 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 79.3 84.7 86.5<br /><i>(2010) (2013) (1993)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>51</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>CYQI</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMF</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Torino / Caselle</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.6 98.6 99.1<br /><i>(2016) (2022) (1984)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.1</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>58</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIMF</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Celle</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.6 102.6 102.6<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>65</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>SBFN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Fernando De Noronha</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Brazil</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 86.5 102.2 111.9<br /><i>(1996) (1973) (1989)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>54</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>SBFN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIPX</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Verona / Villafranca</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.9 100.8 102.2<br /><i>(2012) (2013) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>58</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIPX</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Clermont-Ferrand</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.9 105.3 105.8<br /><i>(1982) (1983) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>UARR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Uralsk</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Kazakhstan</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">100.4 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>101.3 106.3 108.1<br /><i>(1984) (1984) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>74</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>UARR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOWL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Linz / Hoersching-Flughafen</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Austria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.3 99.3 99.3<br /><i>(2002) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>70</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOWL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>SPME</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Tumbes</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Peru</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 90.5 102.4 108.0<br /><i>(1997) (1991) (2020)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>SPME</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFMO</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Orange</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">95.0 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 95.9 105.3 108.7<br /><i>(1982) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFMO</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>KMTH</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Marathon, FL</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.0 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.9 97.0 114.1<br /><i>(2009) (2005) (2020)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>35</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>KMTH</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>GUCY</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Conakry / Gbessia</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Guinea</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 88.7 107.6 107.6<br /><i>(2002) (1977) (1977)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>47</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>GUCY</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DAOY</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>El Bayadh</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Algeria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">98.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 99.5 108.0 108.0<br /><i>(2012) (1997) (1997)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-0.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DAOY</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>UATT</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Aktjubinsk</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Kazakhstan</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">102.2 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>103.3 108.0 109.4<br /><i>(2011) (1984) (1975)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>79</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>UATT</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFLN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Saint-Yan</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 94.3 104.5 104.5<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFLN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Lyon / Satolas</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 94.3 102.7 103.8<br /><i>(2020) (1983) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>48</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFLL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DTTL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Kelibia</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Tunisia</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 94.6 104.4 113.9<br /><i>(2012) (2017) (1987)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>51</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DTTL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRQ</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Firenze / Peretola</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">98.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>100.0 107.6 109.9<br /><i>(2017) (1983) (2012)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.4</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>58</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRQ</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIML</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Milano / Linate</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.0 100.4 102.7<br /><i>(1968) (1975) (2003)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>66</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIML</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>UWUU</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Ufa</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Russia</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 93.2 102.0 102.0<br /><i>(2020) (1952) (1952)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>79</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>UWUU</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>SBPL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Petrolina</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Brazil</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 89.6 102.2 114.8<br /><i>(2013) (1995) (1991)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>48</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>SBPL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LSZL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Locarno</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Switzerland</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 104.5 104.5<br /><i>(2016) (1985) (1985)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>65</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LSZL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIVR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Passo Rolle</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">68.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 69.8 78.8 80.6<br /><i>(2010) (1987) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>48</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIVR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRU</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Roma / Urbe</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 96.8 104.9 106.9<br /><i>(2019) (2001) (2002)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRU</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRP</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Pisa / S. Giusto</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.2 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(2003) (2005) (2005)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>64</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIRP</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRA</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Roma / Ciampino</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 95.0 102.2 105.8<br /><i>(2019) (1983) (1981)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>62</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRA</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GOTK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Kedougou</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Senegal</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 95.0 108.3 120.9<br /><i>(2011) (1999) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GOTK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>GBYD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Banjul / Yundum</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Gambia, The</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 95.0 116.6 116.6<br /><i>(2016) (1980) (1980)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>GBYD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GAKD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Kayes</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Mali</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">100.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>102.2 110.3 124.7<br /><i>(2002) (2012) (2010)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>61</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GAKD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>FOOK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Makokou</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Gabon</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">82.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 84.2 91.4 103.1<br /><i>(1995) (1977) (1992)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>FOOK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETNW</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Wunstorf</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 95.0 103.6 103.6<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETNW</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETMN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Nordholz</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 97.3 98.6<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (1992)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>52</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>ETMN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Fassberg</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.2 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (2022) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>58</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>ETHS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EPWR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Wroclaw Ii</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Poland</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.6 99.3 100.4<br /><i>(2002) (2022) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EPWR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DTTG</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Gabes</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Tunisia</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">113.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>114.8 116.6 122.0<br /><i>(1980) (2021) (2020)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>60</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DTTG</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>USCC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Chelyabinsk-Balandino</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Russia</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.4 100.4 102.0<br /><i>(2020) (2012) (1934)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>67</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>USCC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSZA</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Lugano</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Switzerland</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.4 98.8 98.8<br /><i>(2016) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>46</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LSZA</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFST</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Strasbourg</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.4 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(1982) (2019) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>54</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFST</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GCHI</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Hierro / Aeropuerto</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Spain</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">80.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 82.4 93.2 104.7<br /><i>(2022) (1992) (2012)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GCHI</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDMA</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Augsburg</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Germany</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.4 98.8 98.8<br /><i>(2010) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-1.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>60</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>EDMA</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TJNR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Roosevelt Roads, PR</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">90.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 91.9 100.4 108.0<br /><i>(2020) (2003) (2015)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-1.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>69</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TJNR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>TGPY</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Point Salines Airport</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Grenada</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.8 91.4 100.6<br /><i>(2020) (2002) (1998)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>38</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>TGPY</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TFFJ</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Gustavia, Saint Barthelemy</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Guadeloupe</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 89.8 93.2 107.6<br /><i>(1987) (1995) (1981)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>37</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TFFJ</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LICD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Lampedusa</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 89.8 97.5 100.4<br /><i>(2019) (1984) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LICD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFCR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Rodez</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 88.0 101.1 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (2006) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>36</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFCR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LEGR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Granada / Aeropuerto</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Spain</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">104.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>106.0 113.9 114.8<br /><i>(2015) (2017) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LEGR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GGOV</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Bissau Aeroport</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Guinea-Bissau</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">91.4 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 93.4 104.7 118.4<br /><i>(2013) (1985) (1976)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>41</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>GGOV</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOWI</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Innsbruck-Flughafen</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Austria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.8 98.6 99.1<br /><i>(2010) (2015) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>67</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LOWI</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIVP</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Paganella</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">66.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 68.4 87.8 87.8<br /><i>(2010) (1973) (1973)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>47</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIVP</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPZ</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Venezia / Tessera</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 88.2 100.4 100.4<br /><i>(2012) (1983) (1991)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>58</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPZ</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFLW</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Aurillac</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">84.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 86.4 100.4 100.6<br /><i>(1983) (1983) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>43</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFLW</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>GOSS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Saint-Louis</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Senegal</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 91.8 113.0 118.4<br /><i>(1989) (1982) (2017)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.2</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>GOSS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LPFL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Flores Acores</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Portugal</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">78.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 81.1 93.2 104.0<br /><i>(2006) (1979) (1980)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>45</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LPFL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LKMT</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Ostrava / Mosnov</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Czech Republic</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 88.3 98.1 98.6<br /><i>(1995) (1994) (2013)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>61</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LKMT</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFMC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Le Luc</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">95.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 97.3 108.9 108.9<br /><i>(2012) (1982) (1982)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>41</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFMC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DAOI</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Chlef</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Algeria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">111.2 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>113.5 118.4 118.4<br /><i>(1984) (2015) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DAOI</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DAOF</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Tindouf</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Algeria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">114.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>117.1 118.9 122.9<br /><i>(2011) (2016) (2004)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>DAOF</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>TNCB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Flamingo Airport, Bonaire</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Netherlands Antilles</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.1 98.6 102.7<br /><i>(2005) (1992) (2008)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>TNCB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TFFF</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Le Lamentin</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Martinique</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 90.3 98.6 102.2<br /><i>(2010) (1975) (1988)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>56</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TFFF</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPI</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Udine / Rivolto</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.1 100.8 100.8<br /><i>(1983) (1983) (1983)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>51</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPI</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIMK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Torino / Bric Della Croce</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">84.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 86.7 93.2 95.0<br /><i>(2020) (2022) (2019)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>48</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIMK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFQG</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Nevers</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.1 102.9 103.6<br /><i>(2010) (2019) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>49</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFQG</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFMN</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Nice</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 88.5 101.8 101.8<br /><i>(2019) (1988) (1988)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>52</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LFMN</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFMD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Cannes</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>France</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 90.3 99.3 100.9<br /><i>(2007) (2019) (2017)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>42</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LFMD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LEJR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Jerez De La Fronteraaeropuerto</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Spain</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">102.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>104.7 116.6 116.6<br /><i>(2016) (1995) (1995)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>50</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LEJR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>HTSO</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Songea</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Tanzania</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">77.0 ▼</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 79.5 89.6 100.4<br /><i>(2019) (1976) (1975)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>59</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>HTSO</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TBPB</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Grantley Adams</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Barbados</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">86.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 88.7 89.6 100.4<br /><i>(1993) (1978) (1979)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>35</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>TBPB</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>MWCR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Owen Roberts Airport Grand Cayman</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Cayman Islands</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.3 98.6 102.2<br /><i>(2004) (2012) (1995)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>57</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>MWCR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LOWW</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Wien / Schwechat-Flughafen</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Austria</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 92.3 105.8 105.8<br /><i>(2011) (2012) (2012)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>66</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LOWW</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRV</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Viterbo</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 95.9 104.2 104.5<br /><i>(2012) (2005) (2022)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>51</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIRV</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIPE</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Bologna / Borgo Panigale</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">93.2 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 95.9 104.0 106.0<br /><i>(2017) (1983) (1998)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.7</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>LIPE</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>TNCC</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Hato Airport, Curacao</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Netherlands Antilles</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.5 102.0 102.2<br /><i>(1995) (1992) (1975)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>43</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>TNCC</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>OIGG</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Rasht</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Iran</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">87.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 90.7 107.6 107.6<br /><i>(2011) (1980) (1980)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>-2.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>42</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>OIGG</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPH</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Treviso / S. Angelo</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Italy</span></td><td bgcolor="#ffff00"><span><center><span style="color: black;">89.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 92.5 102.2 102.2<br /><i>(2012) (1989) (1989)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-2.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>54</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>LIPH</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#777777" colspan="8"><span style="color: #777777;">.</span></td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>PAMD</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Middleton Island, AK</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ffff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">48.9 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 46.0 43.0 -52.8<br /><i>(1952) (1955) (1980)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+2.9</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>69</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>PAMD</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>KCSM</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Clinton, OK</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ffff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">69.1 ▲</span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 66.2 53.6 -6.0<br /><i>(2015) (2005) (2021)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+2.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>55</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>KCSM</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>KCCR</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Concord, CA</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ffff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">55.9 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 53.1 48.9 22.1<br /><i>(1999) (1999) (1990)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+2.8</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>40</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>KCCR</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>CWQS</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Kindakun Rocks, B. C.</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Canada</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ffff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">49.8 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 47.5 33.8 -20.2<br /><i>(2009) (1988) (2002)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+2.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>43</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>CWQS</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>PHBK</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Kekaha, HI</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ffff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">70.0 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 68.0 57.9 42.8<br /><i>(1973) (1974) (1979)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>+2.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>62</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>PHBK</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>KSQL</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>San Carlos Airport, CA</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#3399ff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">55.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 55.0 51.1 22.1<br /><i>(1986) (1986) (1990)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>+0.3</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>40</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>KSQL</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>KPAO</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>Palo Alto Airport, CA</span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span>United States</span></td><td bgcolor="#3399ff"><span><center><span style="color: black;">55.4 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center> 55.4 48.9 21.2<br /><i>(2000) (1986) (1990)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>0.0</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center>39</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#C5C5C5"><span><center><b>KPAO</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DNPO</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Port Harcourt</span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span>Nigeria</span></td><td bgcolor="#0000ff"><span><center><span style="color: white;">71.6 </span></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center> 72.1 54.1 48.2<br /><i>(2021) (2008) (2008)</i></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>-0.5</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center>38</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><span><center><b>DNPO</b></center></span></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center><b>ID</b></center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span>City</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span>Country</span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Current<br />Temp &<br />Trend<br />(°F)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Unofficial Daily /<br />Monthly /<br />Alltime<br />Record (°F)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Margin of<br />Unofficial<br />Daily<br />Record (°F)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center>Database<br />Length<br />(years)</center></span></td><td bgcolor="#00ff00"><span><center><b>ID</b></center></span></td></tr></tbody></table>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-46922235052084504102022-05-29T20:32:00.001-05:002022-09-08T21:19:26.730-05:00Historic Greenland ice sheet rainfall unraveled<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #a5a6b7; font-family: georgia;">by </span><a class="article-byline__link" href="http://www.esa.int/esaCP/index.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #a5a6b7; font-family: georgia; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">European Space Agency</a>, May 26, 2022</p><div class="mt-4 article-main" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; height: auto; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 1.5rem;"><div class="article-gallery lightGallery" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><div data-src="https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2022/historic-greenland-ice.jpg" data-sub-html="Meltwater and surface lakes on the Greenland ice sheet. Credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2021), processed by ESA" data-thumb="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/tmb/2022/historic-greenland-ice.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><figure class="article-img" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><img alt="Historic Greenland ice sheet rainfall unravelled" height="530" src="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2022/historic-greenland-ice.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-style: none; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%; opacity: 0.75; position: relative; transition: opacity 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; user-select: none; vertical-align: middle;" title="Meltwater and surface lakes on the Greenland ice sheet. Credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2021), processed by ESA" width="800" /></span><figcaption class="text-darken text-low-up text-truncate-js text-truncate mt-3" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #71738b; margin-top: 1rem; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Meltwater and surface lakes on the Greenland ice sheet. Credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2021), processed by ESA</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For the first time ever recorded, in the late summer of 2021, rain fell on the high central region of the Greenland ice sheet. This extraordinary event was followed by the surface snow and ice melting rapidly. Researchers now understand exactly what went on in those fateful summer days and what we can learn from it.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The never-before-seen rainfall, on 14 August 2021, made headlines around the world. The upper-most parts of Greenland's enormous ice cap used to be too cold for anything other than <a class="textTag" href="https://phys.org/tags/snow/" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">snow</a> to fall, but not anymore.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">What caused this extreme rainfall and how did it affect the ice?</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Researchers from the Department of Glaciology and Climate at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) in collaboration with colleagues from France and Switzerland have scrutinized these questions and come up with the answers.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It didn't only rain at Summit Camp—rain was measured by new automatic weather stations placed across the ice sheet by GEUS' ice-sheet monitoring projects PROMICE and GC-Net.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Studying detailed data from these stations alongside measurements of surface reflectivity, or albedo, from the Copernicus Sentinel-3 <a class="textTag" href="https://phys.org/tags/satellite+mission/" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">satellite mission</a> and information on <a class="textTag" href="https://phys.org/tags/atmospheric+circulation+patterns/" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">atmospheric circulation patterns</a>, the researchers discovered that the rain had been preceded by a heatwave at a time of year when seasonal melting is usually slowing down.</span></p><div class="article-gallery lightGallery" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><div data-src="https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2022/historic-greenland-ice-1.jpg" data-sub-html="Greenland air temperature for August 2019, 2020, 2021, compared to the 1991–2020 August average. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF/ESA (data ERA5)" data-thumb="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/tmb/2022/historic-greenland-ice-1.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><figure class="article-img text-center" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><img alt="Historic Greenland ice sheet rainfall unravelled" src="https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2022/historic-greenland-ice-1.jpg" style="border-style: none; box-sizing: border-box; height: auto; max-width: 100%; position: relative; transition: opacity 0.3s ease-in-out 0s; user-select: none; vertical-align: middle;" title="Greenland air temperature for August 2019, 2020, 2021, compared to the 1991–2020 August average. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF/ESA (data ERA5)" /></span><figcaption class="text-left text-darken text-truncate text-low-up mt-3" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #71738b; margin-top: 1rem; overflow: hidden; text-align: left; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Greenland air temperature for August 2019, 2020, 2021, compared to the 1991–2020 August average. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF/ESA (data ERA5)</span></figcaption></figure></div></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It wasn't the rain</span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"It turns out that the rain itself wasn't the most important factor," says Prof. Jason Box from GEUS and lead author of the paper reporting their results, which has been accepted for publication in <i style="box-sizing: border-box;">Geophysical Research Letters</i>.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"There is an irony. It's not really the rain that did the damage to the snow and ice, it's the darkening effect of the meltwater and how the heat from the event erased snow that had overlaid darker ice across the lower third of the ice sheet.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">"Unusually warm atmospheric rivers swept along Greenland in the late summer months, bringing potent melt conditions when the <a class="textTag" href="https://phys.org/tags/melt+season/" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">melt season</a> was drawing to a close."</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In fact, this sudden increase of surface ice melt on Greenland could have happened without any rain ever touching the ground.</span></p></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The never-before-seen rainfall, on 14 August 2021, made headlines around the world. The upper-most parts of Greenland's enormous ice cap used to be too cold for anything other than <a class="textTag" href="https://phys.org/tags/snow/" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">snow</a> to fall, but not anymore.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="plyr plyr--full-ui plyr--video plyr--html5 plyr--fullscreen-enabled plyr--pip-supported plyr__poster-enabled plyr--paused" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; background: rgb(0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; direction: ltr; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; font-weight: var(--plyr-font-weight-regular, 400); height: 719.578px; line-height: var(--plyr-line-height, 1.7); max-width: 100%; min-width: 200px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-shadow: none; transition: box-shadow 0.3s ease 0s, -webkit-box-shadow 0.3s ease 0s; z-index: 0;" tabindex="0"><div class="plyr__controls" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-pack: end; align-items: center; background: var(--plyr-video-controls-background, linear-gradient(rgba(0, 0, 0, 0), rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75))); border-bottom-left-radius: inherit; border-bottom-right-radius: inherit; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: var(--plyr-video-control-color, #fff); display: flex; justify-content: flex-end; left: 0px; padding-top: calc(var(--plyr-control-spacing,10px)*3.5); position: absolute; right: 0px; text-align: center; transition: opacity 0.4s ease-in-out 0s, transform 0.4s ease-in-out 0s, -webkit-transform 0.4s ease-in-out 0s; z-index: 3;"><div class="plyr__controls__item plyr__volume" style="-webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; margin-left: calc(var(--plyr-control-spacing,10px)/4); max-width: 110px; min-width: 80px; position: relative; width: 104px;"><button class="plyr__control" data-plyr="mute" style="appearance: button; background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-radius: var(--plyr-control-radius, 3px); border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; cursor: pointer; flex-shrink: 0; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: calc(var(--plyr-control-spacing,10px)*0.7); position: relative; touch-action: manipulation; transition: all 0.3s ease 0s; width: auto;" type="button"><span class="label--not-pressed plyr__sr-only" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); height: 1px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; position: absolute; width: 1px;"><span style="font-family: georgia; 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font-size: small;">Play</span></span></button></div><figcaption class="text-darken text-low-up mt-4" itemprop="caption" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71738b; margin-top: 1.5rem;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><i>For the first time ever recorded, in the late summer of 2021, rain fell on the high central area of the Greenland ice sheet. This extraordinary event was preceded by a heatwave and followed by the surface snow and ice rapidly melting. The animation is a series of five images captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 mission and shows how the surface of the ice sheet changed between on 1, 3, 5, 20, and 23 August 2021. The melt, which also created lakes on the surface of the ice, is clear to see. Researchers, supported by ESA’s Science for Society program, discovered that it wasn’t actually the rain that caused the melt, it was unusually warm ‘atmospheric rivers’ that swept along Greenland, bringing potent melt conditions when the melt season would normally be drawing to a close. Credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2021), processed by ESA.</i></span></figcaption><figcaption class="text-darken text-low-up mt-4" itemprop="caption" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71738b; margin-top: 1.5rem;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Even though the rainfall was a shock and a milestone in climate history, researchers knew it was bound to happen sooner or later, given the rising temperatures of the Arctic.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Therefore, Prof. Box and the co-authors encourage research to look further into the workings behind atmospheric rivers and not just rainfall.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212438; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">They conclude that understanding the frequency of heatwaves, appears to be a more significant research target than the liquid precipitation that heatwaves may or may not produce.</span></p></figcaption><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-05-historic-greenland-ice-sheet-rainfall.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: georgia;">https://phys.org/news/2022-05-historic-greenland-ice-sheet-rainfall.ht</span>ml</a></p>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-46443162359531511262022-02-22T11:59:00.002-06:002022-02-22T12:01:15.821-06:00Flip Flop: Why Variations in Earth's Magnetic Field Aren't Causing Today's Climate Change<p> B<span face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #2b2b2b; font-size: 16.64px;">y Alan Buis, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px;">NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, August 3, 2021</span></p><header class="blog_header" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 0px 0px 2em; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div class="sharing_buttons_stats" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="chertools_floater" data-react-cache-id="CherTools-0" data-react-class="CherTools" data-react-props="{"share":[["Facebook"],["Twitter"],["Pinterest"],["Email"]]}" style="box-sizing: content-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="wasnt_it_good all" style="box-sizing: content-box; left: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: fixed; top: 55vh; z-index: 99999;"><div class="i_found_someone" style="box-sizing: content-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="facebook" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; background: url("/assets/public/facebook_icon@2x.png") center center / cover no-repeat; box-sizing: content-box; color: white; cursor: pointer; font-size: 38px; height: 45px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 0px 8px; width: 45px;"></div><div class="twitter" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; background: url("/assets/public/twitter_icon@2x.png") center center / cover no-repeat; box-sizing: content-box; color: white; cursor: pointer; font-size: 38px; height: 45px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 0px 8px; width: 45px;"></div><div class="pinterest" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; background: url("/assets/public/pinterest_icon@2x.png") center center / cover no-repeat; box-sizing: content-box; color: white; cursor: pointer; font-size: 38px; height: 45px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 0px 8px; width: 45px;"></div><div class="email" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 50% 50%; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; background: url("/assets/public/email_icon@2x.png") center center / cover no-repeat; box-sizing: content-box; color: white; cursor: pointer; font-size: 38px; height: 45px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 0px 0px 8px; width: 45px;"></div></div><div class="where_do_you_go open" style="box-sizing: content-box; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="icon arrow_down" style="border-bottom: 6px solid transparent; border-left: 8px solid rgb(119, 119, 119); border-top: 6px solid transparent; box-sizing: content-box; display: inline-block; height: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 35px; padding: 0px; transform: rotate(180deg); width: 0px;"></span></div></div></div></div></header><div class="wysiwyg_content" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div class="image_module right" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; float: right; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5em 2.5em; max-width: 50%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><img alt="magnetosphere" src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2399" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 355.925px;" /><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">Earth is surrounded by a system of magnetic fields, called the magnetosphere. The magnetosphere shields our home planet from harmful solar and cosmic particle radiation, but it can change shape in response to incoming space weather from the Sun. Credit: <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4188" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio</a></figcaption></figure></div><div class="image_module right" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; float: right; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 1em 0px 1.5em 2.5em; max-width: 50%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><img alt="conceptual animation of solar wind" src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2400" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 355.925px;" /><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">A constant outflow of solar material streams out from the Sun, depicted here in an artist's rendering. This solar wind is always passing by Earth. Credit: NASA Goddard's Conceptual Image Lab/Greg Shirah</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Earth is surrounded by an immense magnetic field, called the magnetosphere. Generated by powerful, dynamic forces at the center of our world, our magnetosphere shields us from erosion of our atmosphere by the solar wind, particle radiation from coronal mass ejections (eruptions of large clouds of energetic, magnetized plasma from the Sun’s corona into space), and from cosmic rays from deep space. Our magnetosphere plays the role of gatekeeper, repelling these forms of energy that are harmful to life, trapping most of it safely away from Earth’s surface. You can learn more about Earth’s magnetosphere <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3105/earths-magnetosphere-protecting-our-planet-from-harmful-space-energy/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">here</b></a>.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Since the forces that generate our magnetic field are constantly changing, the field itself is also in continual flux, its strength waxing and waning over time. This causes the location of Earth’s magnetic north and south poles to gradually shift, and to even completely flip locations every 300,000 years or so. That might be somewhat important if you use a compass, or for certain animals like birds, fish and sea turtles, whose internal compasses use the magnetic field to navigate<i style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">.</i></p><div class="column-width video_player_container" data-react-cache-id="Video-0" data-react-class="Video" data-react-props="{"files":[{"file":"/system/video_items/177_COR2_CMEs_best.m4v"},{"file":"/system/video_items/178_COR2_CMEs_best.webm"},{"file":"/system/video_items/179_COR2_CMEs_best.ogv"}],"caption":"The Sun unleashed a series of four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on May 22-24, 2010 as the STEREO Ahead spacecraft watched the action. In the coronagraph images, the Sun, blocked out by an occulting disk (seen as red), is represented by a white disk to show its relative size. CMEs are large solar storms that expel a billion tons of matter at a million miles per hour or more. Credit: NASA/European Space Agency","poster":"/system/resources/detail_files/280_COR2_CMEs_best.jpg","video_div":"video_99404","layout":"column-width","autostart":true,"vrview":"false","vrview_stereo":"true","title":"Powerful Eruptions on the Sun\u0026#39;s Surface","display_caption":true,"autoloop":true,"controls":null}" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 2em; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><div class="video_container" id="video_99404" style="background-color: black; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><video controls="" loop="" poster="https://climate.nasa.gov/system/resources/detail_files/280_COR2_CMEs_best.jpg" preload="auto" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;"></video></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">The Sun unleashed a series of four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on May 22-24, 2010 as the STEREO Ahead spacecraft watched the action. In the coronagraph images, the Sun, blocked out by an occulting disk (seen as red), is represented by a white disk to show its relative size. CMEs are large solar storms that expel a billion tons of matter at a million miles per hour or more. Credit: NASA/European Space Agency</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Some people have claimed that variations in Earth’s magnetic field are contributing to current global warming and can cause catastrophic climate change. However, the science doesn’t support that argument. In this blog, we’ll examine a number of proposed hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in Earth’s magnetic field on climate. We’ll also discuss physics-based reasons why changes in the magnetic field can’t impact climate.</p><div class="column-width image_module" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2401" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;" target="_blank"><img alt="Image of the average strength of Earth's magnetic field at the surface (measured in nanotesla) between January 1 and June 30, 2014" src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2401" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;" /></a></figure></div><div class="column-width image_module" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2402" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;" target="_blank"><img alt="Image showing changes in Earth's magnetic field between January 1 and June 20, 2014" src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2402" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;" /></a><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">Launched in November 2013 by the European Space Agency (ESA), the three-satellite Swarm constellation is providing new insights into the workings of Earth’s global magnetic field. Generated by the motion of molten iron in Earth’s core, the magnetic field protects our planet from cosmic radiation and from the charged particles emitted by our Sun. It also provides the basis for navigation with a compass.<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Based on data from Swarm, the top image shows the average strength of Earth’s magnetic field at the surface (measured in nanotesla) between January 1 and June 30, 2014. The second image shows changes in that field over the same period. Though the colors in the second image are just as bright as the first, note that the greatest changes were plus or minus 100 nanotesla in a field that reaches 60,000 nanotesla. Credit: European Space Agency/Technical University of Denmark (ESA/DTU Space)</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/newsletter_signup/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Get NASA's Climate Change News:</b> Subscribe to the Newsletter »</a></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Hypotheses:</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1. Shifts in Magnetic Pole Locations</b></p><div class="column-width video_player_container" data-react-cache-id="Video-0" data-react-class="Video" data-react-props="{"files":[{"file":"/system/video_items/184_movement.m4v"},{"file":"/system/video_items/185_movement.webm"},{"file":"/system/video_items/186_movement.ogv"}],"caption":"NOAA NCEI and CIRES scientists created this animation depicting the wandering of Earth\u0026rsquo;s North Magnetic Pole over the past 50 years. Credit: NOAA/NCEI","poster":"/system/resources/detail_files/283_movement.jpg","video_div":"video_15511","layout":"column-width","autostart":true,"vrview":"false","vrview_stereo":"true","title":"Earth\u0026#39;s Wandering North Magnetic Pole","display_caption":true,"autoloop":true,"controls":null}" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 2em; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><div class="video_container" id="video_15511" style="background-color: black; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px; min-height: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><video controls="" loop="" poster="https://climate.nasa.gov/system/resources/detail_files/283_movement.jpg" preload="auto" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;"></video></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">NOAA NCEI and CIRES scientists created this animation depicting the wandering of Earth’s North Magnetic Pole over the past 50 years. Credit: NOAA/NCEI</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">The position of Earth’s magnetic north pole was first precisely located in 1831. Since then, it’s gradually drifted north-northwest by more than 600 miles (1,100 kilometers), and its forward speed has increased from about 10 miles (16 kilometers) per year to about 34 miles (55 kilometers) per year. This gradual shift impacts navigation and must be regularly accounted for. However, there is little scientific evidence of any significant links between Earth’s drifting magnetic poles and climate.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2. Magnetic Pole Reversals</b></p><div class="image_module right" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; float: right; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 1em 0px 1.5em 2.5em; max-width: 50%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><img alt="Supercomputer models of Earth's magnetic field" src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2403" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 355.925px;" /><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">Supercomputer models of Earth's magnetic field. On the left is a normal dipolar magnetic field, typical of the long years between polarity reversals. On the right is the sort of complicated magnetic field Earth has during the upheaval of a reversal. Credit: University of California, Santa Cruz/Gary Glatzmaier</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">During a pole reversal, Earth’s magnetic north and south poles swap locations. While that may sound like a big deal, pole reversals are common in Earth’s geologic history. Paleomagnetic records tell us Earth’s magnetic poles have reversed 183 times in the last 83 million years, and at least several hundred times in the past 160 million years. The time intervals between reversals have fluctuated widely, but average about 300,000 years, with the last one taking place about 780,000 years ago.</p><div class="column-width image_module" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2404" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;" target="_blank"><img alt="Geomagnetic polarity over the past 169 million years, trailing off into the Jurassic Quiet Zone. Dark areas denote periods of normal polarity, light areas denote reverse polarity." src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2404" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;" /></a><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">Geomagnetic polarity over the past 169 million years, trailing off into the Jurassic Quiet Zone. Dark areas denote periods of normal polarity, light areas denote reverse polarity. Credit: Public domain</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">During a pole reversal, the magnetic field weakens, but it doesn’t completely disappear. The magnetosphere, together with Earth’s atmosphere, continue protecting Earth from cosmic rays and charged solar particles, though there may be a small amount of particulate radiation that makes it down to Earth’s surface. The magnetic field becomes jumbled, and multiple magnetic poles can emerge in unexpected places.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">No one knows exactly when the next pole reversal may occur, but scientists know they don’t happen overnight: they take place over hundreds to thousands of years.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">In the past 200 years, Earth’s magnetic field has weakened about nine percent on a global average. Some people cite this as “evidence” a pole reversal is imminent, but scientists have no reason to believe so. In fact, <b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">paleomagnetic studies show the field is about as strong as it’s been in the past 100,000 years, and is twice as intense as its million-year average. </b>While some scientists estimate the field’s strength might completely decay in about 1,300 years, the current weakening could stop at any time.</p><div class="image_module right" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; float: right; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 1em 0px 1.5em 2.5em; max-width: 50%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><img alt="The Sun expels a constant outflow of particles and magnetic fields known as the solar wind and vast clouds of hot plasma and radiation called coronal mass ejections. This solar material streams across space and strikes Earth’s magnetosphere, the space occupied by Earth’s magnetic field, which acts like a protective shield around the planet." src="https://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/2409_h_0219_vc_animation_earth_only.00400_print.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 355.925px;" /><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">The Sun expels a constant outflow of particles and magnetic fields known as the solar wind and vast clouds of hot plasma and radiation called coronal mass ejections. This solar material streams across space and strikes Earth’s magnetosphere, the space occupied by Earth’s magnetic field, which acts like a protective shield around the planet. Credit: NASA Goddard/Bailee DesRocher</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Plant and animal fossils from the period of the last major pole reversal don’t show any big changes. </b>Deep ocean sediment samples indicate glacial activity was stable. In fact, geologic and fossil records from previous reversals show nothing remarkable, such as doomsday events or major extinctions.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">3. Geomagnetic Excursions</b></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Recently, there have been questions and discussion about “geomagnetic excursions:” shorter-lived but significant changes in the magnetic field’s intensity that last from a few centuries to a few tens of thousands of years. During the last major excursion, called the Laschamps event, radiocarbon evidence shows that about 41,500 years ago, the magnetic field weakened significantly and the poles reversed, only to flip back again about 500 years later.</p><div class="column-width image_module" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2410" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;" target="_blank"><img alt="Earth's magnetic field" src="https://climate.nasa.gov/internal_resources/2410" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;" /></a><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">Earth’s magnetic field. Credit: NASA</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">While there is some evidence of regional climate changes during the Laschamps event timeframe, ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland don’t show any major changes. Moreover, when viewed within the context of climate variability during the last ice age, any changes in climate observed at Earth’s surface were subtle.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Bottom line: There’s no evidence that Earth’s climate has been significantly impacted by the last three magnetic field excursions, nor by any excursion event within at least the last 2.8 million years.</b></p><h3 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.4em; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 1.5em 0px 0.5em; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Physical Principles</b></h3><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1. Insufficient Energy in Earth’s Upper Atmosphere</b></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Electromagnetic currents exist within Earth’s upper atmosphere. But the energy driving the climate system in the upper atmosphere is, on global average, a minute fraction of the energy that drives the climate system at Earth’s surface. Its magnitude is typically less than one to a few milliwatts per square meter. To put that into context, the energy budget at Earth’s surface is about 250 to 300 watts per square meter. <b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">In the long run, the energy that governs Earth’s upper atmosphere is about 100,000 times less than the amount of energy driving the climate system at Earth’s surface. There is simply not enough energy aloft to have an influence on climate down where we live.</b></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2. Air Isn’t Ferrous</b></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Finally, changes and shifts in Earth’s magnetic field polarity don’t impact weather and climate for a fundamental reason: air isn’t <i style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">ferrous</i>.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Ferrous?</i> Say <b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">what??</i></b> Bueller? <i style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Bueller?</i></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">Ferrous means “containing or consisting of iron.” While iron in volcanic ash is transported in the atmosphere, and small quantities of iron and iron compounds generated by human activities are a source of air pollution in some urban areas, iron isn’t a significant component of Earth’s atmosphere. <b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">There’s no known physical mechanism capable of connecting weather conditions at Earth’s surface with electromagnetic currents in space.</b></p><div class="column-width image_module" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; margin: 2em 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><figure class="inline_figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/_self" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;" target="_blank"><img alt="Thermal and compositional structure of the atmosphere." src="https://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/2452_image002.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: middle; width: 711.862px;" /></a><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a6470; font-size: 0.88em; margin: 0.8em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">Thermal and compositional structure of the atmosphere. The upper atmosphere, comprising the mesosphere, thermosphere, and embedded ionosphere, absorbs all incident solar radiation at wavelengths less than 200 nanometers (nm). Most of that absorbed radiation is ultimately returned to space via infrared emissionsfrom carbon dioxide (CO<span style="bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 10.9824px; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span>) and nitric oxide (NO) molecules. The stratospheric ozone layer absorbs radiation between 200 and 300 nm.<br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />The plot on the left shows the typical global-average thermal structure of the atmosphere when the flux of solar radiation is at the minimum and maximum values of its 11-year cycle. The plot on the right shows the density of nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and atomic oxygen (O), the three major neutral species in the upper atmosphere, along with the free electron (e−) density, which is equal to the combined density of the various ion species. The F, E, and D regions of the ionosphere are also indicated, as is the troposphere, the atmosphere’s lowest region. Credit: Naval Research Laboratory/J. Emmert</figcaption></figure></div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Solar storms and their electromagnetic interactions only impact Earth’s ionosphere, </b>which extends from the lowest edge of the mesosphere (about 31 miles or 50 kilometers above Earth’s surface) to space, around 600 miles (965 kilometers) above the surface. <b style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">They have no impact on Earth’s troposphere or lower stratosphere, where Earth’s surface weather, and subsequently its climate, originate.</b></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;">In short, when it comes to climate, variations in Earth’s magnetic field are nothing to get charged up about.</p><h3 style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.4em; letter-spacing: -0.01em; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 1.5em 0px 0.5em; padding: 0px;">Related Feature</h3><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16.64px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3105/earths-magnetosphere-protecting-our-planet-from-harmful-space-energy/" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0e7ee0; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;" target="_self">Earth's Magnetosphere: Protecting Our Planet from Harmful Space Energy</a></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; margin: 1em 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px;"><span face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-size: 16.64px;">https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/</span></span></p></div>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-69676486760198213112021-05-08T23:11:00.002-05:002021-05-08T23:11:23.369-05:00Let's call climate change deniers what they really are: CLIMATE LIARS! Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-85162584153254148722020-04-27T10:48:00.002-05:002020-04-27T10:48:20.050-05:00Amy Westerfelt: The Reason COVID-19 and Climate Seem So Similar: Disinformation<h3 class="subtitle" style="color: #757575; font-family: "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.16em; margin: 4px 0px 0px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The disinformation industry has deployed these strategies across multiple issues.</span></h3>
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<a class="image-link" href="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc65f3713-0aac-4e28-a9fd-b4bac4150a9f_2603x2082.jpeg" style="border: none; clear: left; color: #1a1a1a; display: inline !important; font-family: Spectral, serif; font-size: 19px; height: auto; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-top: 1.6em; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; width: auto;" target="_blank"><img alt="" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c65f3713-0aac-4e28-a9fd-b4bac4150a9f_2603x2082.jpeg","height":1165,"width":1456,"bytes":815891,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null}" height="159" src="https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc65f3713-0aac-4e28-a9fd-b4bac4150a9f_2603x2082.jpeg" style="display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-height: 1165px; max-width: 1456px; width: 728px;" width="200" /></a></div>
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<em style="color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Illustration by <a href="https://twitter.com/EfflamMercier" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">Efflam Mercier</a>.</span></em></div>
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<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">by Amy Westerfelt, <i>Drilled News</i>, April 20, 2020</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For a long time, the story went that the tobacco industry cooked up disinformation and then spread it to the fossil fuel guys, the chemical industry, pharma, you name it. But one thing that became incredibly clear when we began digging into PR firms and specific publicists was that this version of history is not quite right; if disinformation strategies were cooked up by any particular industry it was the public relations industry, which put these strategies to work on behalf of fossil fuels, tobacco, chemical manufacturers and more, often all at the same time. The <a href="https://www.drillednews.com/post/the-world-s-first-publicist-worked-for-big-oil" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">very first publicist</a>, Ivy Ledbetter Lee, worked on behalf of both Standard Oil and, shortly after, American Tobacco, for example. <a href="https://www.drillednews.com/post/how-astroturfing-made-its-way-from-tobacco-to-oil" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">Daniel Edelman developed astroturf campaigns</a> for both RJ Reynolds tobacco company and the American Petroleum Institute, as did John Hill, who went so far as to have tobacco folks join the API. He also worked with Monsanto, juggling all three clients at the same time. E. Bruce Harrison worked for the chemical guys first, then <a href="https://www.drillednews.com/post/new-documents-link-tobacco-oil-and-public-media" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">managed front groups for tobacco and fossil fuels</a> at the same time. You get the drift.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">These industries all surely learned from each other at various points in time, but that was mostly because they were working with the same publicists. The history is less that tobacco or oil embraced disinformation first and then passed it on and more that a handful of PR firms and consultants created the disinformation industry, and then put it to work on behalf of whatever industry needed it at any given time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Today, those same strategies are at work on behalf of those who worry that the response to COVID-19 will undermine capitalism, which is why climate folks keep noting how familiar the whole anti-science component of the rightwing response to the pandemic feels. It’s familiar because the exact same strategies are being deployed, in some cases by the same people. Here are a few key examples:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong>Disinformation Strategy #1: He who controls the language controls the narrative. </strong>Ivy Lee’s big thing, way back 100+ years ago when he was working with the Rockefellers... oh, and advising Hitler and Goebbels too… was to take control of language. If the government wanted to impose safety regulations on your industry, you described them as “extra” or “additional” or “surplus.” In climate, we’ve seen language shift from “the greenhouse effect” to global warming to climate change. When media finally seized the power to make its own language choices, opting for “climate crisis” or “climate emergency," it was deemed radical, even by other journalists. In the COVID-19 context, we’ve seen this too. It’s gone from a “flu” to “a really bad flu” to “a pandemic” in a relatively condensed amount of time. But you’ll see those trading in disinformation continue to refer to it as “just a bad flu” or point out how many people the flu kills every year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong>Disinformation Strategy #2: Leverage science illiteracy to create doubt:</strong> This has been a hugely effective tactic for multiple industries because the vast majority of public don’t spend a lot of time reading scientific studies, nor do they understand that scientific research has its own language. That makes it very easy to point to something like the uncertainty inherent in any scientific research and say “see, they don’t really know.” The best recent example of this is the re-emergence of Michael Fumento, as <em>Drilled News </em>contributor Paul Thacker <a href="https://twitter.com/thackerpd/status/1251840856673464322?s=20" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">pointed out recently</a>. Fumento questioned health models for the tobacco guys, climate models for the oil guys, and has <a href="https://t.co/Qfr1YSGpJB?amp=1" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">now returned</a> to question public health models used to predict the spread and likely death toll of COVID-19. Fumento was also famously fired when <i>Businessweek</i> outed him for accepting $60,000 from Monsanto one year to write GMO-friendly pieces in his column, which was syndicated to dozens of papers across the country. Of course models, like science in general, have a bit of uncertainty baked in; they represent both the most extreme outcomes and the most likely scenarios, they encapsulate multiple variables. And if you know enough about them, it’s quite easy to cherry pick data and flaws and argue, as Fumento does, that modeling in general is bunk that ought to be thrown out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><strong>Disinformation strategy #3: Astroturfing </strong>This weekend, social media was awash in the news that those anti-lockdown rallies in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado were all fomented by rightwing donors. <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/maryland/comments/g3niq3/i_simply_cannot_believe_that_people_are/fnstpyl/" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">Someone on Reddit</a> figured out all the “re-open the economy” websites were made by one guy in Florida. This is astroturfing 101, and it’s a strategy that’s been a key tool in the disinformation toolbox for at least 100 years. When coalminers and steelworkers were striking regularly back in the late 1800s and early 1900s, publicists like Ivy Lee, Edward Bernays and John Hill helped create fake protest groups that supposedly represented all the coal miners who just wanted these strikes to be over so they could get back to work. In more recent years, fossil fuel companies have backed fake advocacy groups like the California Drivers Alliance or the Washington Consumers for Sound Fuel Policy to fight against everything from emissions regulations to a carbon tax. Astroturfing is fake activism meant to give the illusion of grassroots opposition to policy. My favorite example is the Save the Plastic Bag Coalition, a petrochemical and plastic manufacturers-backed group that protests bag bans and bag taxes. It’s somewhat rare, however, to get a sitting U.S. President supporting and promoting your astroturf campaign, as Trump has done with the fake “re-open the economy” movement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s3-the-mad-men-of-climate-denial/id1439735906?i=1000458727231" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">Season 3 of Drilled</a> gets into these strategies and more in great detail, and you’re bound to see in this history the roots of today’s pandemic disinformation machine.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This week is Earth Week and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/19/the-guardian-joins-forces-with-hundreds-of-newsrooms-to-promote-climate-solutions" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">a lot of media outlets</a> are focused on solutions to climate change, a conversation that COVID-19 has certainly changed. Which got me thinking: often people act like climate accountability is <strong>not </strong>a solution, like all we do is point out problems or play the blame game. Sorry for <a href="https://twitter.com/amywestervelt/status/1251914089237864448?s=20" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">harshing your mellow </a>about carbon capture occasionally, but for the team at <em>Drilled News, </em>accountability is an <a href="https://www.drillednews.com/post/the-climate-covid-19-policy-tracker" style="color: red; text-decoration-line: none;">absolutely necessary </a>part of addressing climate change. How can you move forward functionally if you don’t know where things went wrong in the past? How can any technological solution possibly work if it’s plugged into the same old system (carbon capture is an excellent example of this, come to think of it)?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Our hope, of course, is that when people learn to recognize these strategies and know what’s behind them, they might become less effective. Disempowering the disinformation industry is a necessary part of any climate solution.</span></div>
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<a href="https://drillednews.substack.com/p/the-reason-covid-19-and-climate-seem"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://drillednews.substack.com/p/the-reason-covid-19-and-climate-seem</span></a></div>
Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-65481447813409596972020-04-24T11:54:00.002-05:002020-04-24T11:54:28.337-05:00Bill McKibben's response to Michael Moore's Planet of the Humans<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #17292e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 18.495px; margin-bottom: calc(0.3em + 0.6rem);">
A Youtube video emerged on Earth Day eve making charges about me and about <a href="https://350.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">350.org</a> — namely that I was a supporter of biomass energy, and that 350 and I were beholden to corporate funding, and have misled our supporters on the costs and trade-offs related to decarbonizing our economy. These things aren’t true. Apparently there are lots of other falsehoods and misrepresentations in the film as well, but I’ll let others speak to those.</div>
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Like the film-maker, I previously personally supported burning bio-mass as an alternative to fossil fuels—in my case, when the rural college where I teach replaced its oil furnaces with a wood-chip burner more than a decade ago, I saluted it. But as more scientists studied the consequences of large-scale biomass burning, the math began to show that it would put large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere at precisely the wrong moment: if we break the back of the climate system now, it won’t matter if forests suck it up fifty years hence. And as soon as that became clear I began writing and campaigning on those issues. Here’s a <a href="https://grist.org/climate-energy/burning-trees-for-electricity-is-a-bad-idea/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">piece</a> of mine from 2016 that couldn’t be much clearer, and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/dont-burn-trees-to-fight-climate-changelet-them-grow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">another</a> from 2019 in the New Yorker about the fights in the Southeast, and <a href="https://commonwealthmagazine.org/opinion/2-simple-steps-to-address-climate-change/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">another</a> from 2020 as campaigners fought to affect policy in the Northeast. The other side has definitely noticed—here’s an <a href="http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/16697/the-science-is-clear-on-renewable-wood-energy" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">article</a> from the biomass industry attacking me, <a href="https://350.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">350.org</a>, and others. I’m reasonably sure that most of the valiant people here and in the UK that have been fighting this fight will vouch that I’ve been a help, not a hindrance.</div>
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As for taking corporate money, I’ve actually never taken a penny in pay from <a href="https://350.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">350.org</a>, or from any other environmental group. Instead, I’ve donated hundreds of thousands of dollars over the years in honoraria and prizes. And <a href="https://350.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">350.org</a> hasn’t taken corporate money, (though it did accept the donation of hundreds of irregular parkas from The North Face in 2009 to warm the hundreds of young people it brought from around the world to the Copenhagen climate conference) <a href="https://350.org/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">350.org</a> has no financial interest in the campaigns it runs to clean our financial system of dirty fossil fuels, and does not act as financial adviser; it’s untrue to suggest it ever promoted one fund over another or profited from doing so.</div>
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I am used to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/opinion/sunday/embarrassing-photos-of-me-thanks-to-my-right-wing-stalkers.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">ceaseless harassment and attack</a> from the fossil fuel industry, and I’ve done my best to ignore a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/opinion/sunday/lets-agree-not-to-kill-one-another.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f81e9; cursor: pointer; font-weight: bold;">lifetime of death threats</a> from right-wing extremists. It does hurt more to be attacked by others who think of themselves as environmentalists. I have spent much of the last ten years doing my best to enlarge the environmental movement in every way I can think of, and to support others in their work; I think that a broad big movement is our best hope. And I have found great joy and satisfaction in that work. I don’t understand the reasoning behind these particular attacks; when I first heard rumors of them last summer I wrote the producer and director to set the record straight, and never heard back from them. That seems like bad journalism, and bad faith.</div>
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Obviously there are worse things going on in the world right now, from the pandemic we are all dealing with, to the efforts of the oil industry to use its cover to build new pipelines; they overshadow these attacks, which in any event aren’t on me alone but on lots of others who work, day by day, for change—we’re well aware our victories won’t come all at once, but also that we need to keep pushing. So while you shouldn’t waste any sympathy on me, I am very grateful for the solidarity people have been showing. That feels good.</div>
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Bill McKibben</div>
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<a href="https://350.org/response-planet-of-the-humans-documentary/">https://350.org/response-planet-of-the-humans-documentary/</a></div>
Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-35641460789375095932020-03-08T16:30:00.000-05:002020-03-08T16:30:36.217-05:00WaPo: The Congo rain forest is losing ability to absorb carbon dioxide. That’s bad for climate change<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img alt="The rainforest in Yangambi, Congo. A new study shows that trees in the region are losing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide. The same has been seen in the Amazon, raising concerns that the world’s two largest rainforests may eventually add to global warming. (De Agostini/Getty Images)" class="w-100 mw-100" height="" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/VI4M5QC5VAI6VLCQDBYB4FHANU.jpg&w=1440" style="font-family: Franklin, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; text-align: center; width: 740.148px;" width="5534" /></span><br />
<figcaption class="left ml-gutter mr-gutter mr-auto-ns ml-auto-ns gray-dark font--subhead font-xxxs mt-xs mb-sm" style="color: #666666; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.25; margin: 8px auto 16px;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The rainforest in Yangambi, Congo. A new study shows that trees in the region are losing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide. The same has been seen in the Amazon, raising concerns that the world’s two largest rainforests may eventually add to global warming. (De Agostini/Getty Images)</span></i></figcaption><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">by <span class="author-name font-bold black" style="color: black; font-weight: 700;">Daniel Grossman, <i>The Washington Post</i>, </span>March 4, 2020</span></div>
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<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Scientists have determined that trees in the Congo Basin of central Africa are losing their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, raising alarms about the health of the world’s second-largest contiguous rainforest and its ability to store </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/12/03/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-will-hit-yet-another-record-high-this-year-experts-project/?tid=lk_inline_manual_2&itid=lk_inline_manual_2" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #1955a5; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">greenhouse gases</a><span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"> linked to climate change.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #1955a5; text-decoration-line: none;">study published Wednesday </a>in the journal <i>Nature</i> found that some sites in the Congo Basin showed signs of weakened carbon uptake as early as 2010, suggesting that the decline in Africa may have been underway for a decade.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Increasing heat and drought is believed to be stifling the growth of the trees in the African rainforest, a phenomenon previously noted in the Amazon. The new data provides the first large-scale evidence that tropical rainforests around the world that have been untouched by logging or other human activity are losing their potency to fight climate change.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/top-scientists-warn-of-an-amazon-tipping-point/2019/12/20/9c9be954-233e-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html?tid=lk_interstitial_manual_7&itid=lk_interstitial_manual_7" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #1955a5; font-style: italic; text-decoration-line: none;">scientists warn of an Amazon ‘tipping point’</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The study predicts that by 2030, the African jungle will absorb 14% less carbon dioxide than it did 10 to 15 years ago. By 2035, Amazonian trees won’t absorb any carbon dioxide at all, the researchers said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">By the middle of the century, the remaining uncut tropical forests in Africa, the Amazon and Asia will release more carbon dioxide than they take up — the carbon “sink” will have turned into a carbon source.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Tropical forests will “add to the problem of climate change, rather than mitigating against,” said Simon Lewis, an ecologist at the University of Leeds in England and one of the paper’s co-authors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The results imply that unless nations accelerate efforts to counter climate change, temperatures will rise even faster than anticipated. The Earth “is more sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions than we thought,” said Lewis, who published a less comprehensive study of the African carbon sink in 2009.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The findings contradict models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and governments around the world, which predicted that the Congo Basin rainforest would continue to absorb carbon for many decades to come.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at Britain’s Hadley Centre, who was not involved in the new study, called the results “a really important finding.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Scientists have warned for decades that increased temperatures and reduced rainfall could hamper the tropical carbon sink, or the absorption of carbon dioxide by tropical forests.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/thermometers-climate-change/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_8&tid=lk_interstitial_manual_17&itid=lk_interstitial_manual_17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #1955a5; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">How we know that climate change is real</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The researchers estimate that in the 1990s, 17 percent of the carbon dioxide pumped out of smokestacks and tailpipes was taken up by uncut tropical jungles rather than accumulating in the atmosphere, slowing climate change. That figure has dropped to only 6 percent, they say.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Congo Basin research took more than a decade of work, requiring travel in dugout canoes, on motorcycles and by foot to some of the world’s most inaccessible jungles, and the measurement of tens of thousands of trees by hand. “This has been a huge endeavor,” said Wannes Hubau, a forest ecologist at the Africa Museum in Brussels and a co-author of the paper.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The new study’s origins date to 2005 when, with a research fellowship from Britain’s venerable Royal Society, Lewis began assembling a network of forest plots in Africa that had not been degraded by logging to track the amount of carbon the trees there absorb each year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A group of several hundred Amazon plots had been set up by a colleague five years earlier. But no one had done a similar survey of trees in the Congo Basin. And Africa is different.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“It’s a difficult research environment,” Lewis said. The road network in central Africa is spare and poorly maintained, and perennial political upheaval often halts work. Moreover, there’s little funding to support such research, and few African researchers with whom to collaborate.</span></div>
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<figure class="center mb-md ml-neg-gutter mr-neg-gutter ml-auto-ns mr-auto-ns hide-for-print" style="margin-block-end: 0px; margin-block-start: 0px; margin-inline-end: 0px; margin-inline-start: 0px; margin: 0px auto 24px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img alt="Wannes Hubau, a forest ecologist from the Africa Museum in Brussels, measures one of the massive trees in a plot at the Yangambi Research Station in Congo. He is using a forester’s tape measure that converts the trunk’s circumference into its diameter, a figure used to determine the amount of carbon the tree contains. (Daniel Grossman)" class="mw-100" height="" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/QDKHAES5UII6VLCQDBYB4FHANU.jpg&w=1440" style="max-width: 100%;" width="3264" /></span><figcaption class="left ml-gutter mr-gutter mr-auto-ns ml-auto-ns gray-dark font--subhead font-xxxs mt-xs mb-sm" style="color: #666666; line-height: 1.25; margin: 8px auto 16px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>Wannes Hubau, a forest ecologist from the Africa Museum in Brussels, measures one of the massive trees in a plot at the Yangambi Research Station in Congo. He is using a forester’s tape measure that converts the trunk’s circumference into its diameter, a figure used to determine the amount of carbon the tree contains. (Daniel Grossman)</i></span></figcaption></figure></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Computing the carbon content of a forest requires boots on the ground, measuring the girth of every tree in a patch about twice the size of a football field as frequently as every few years, Lewis said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Scientists have come up with standard equations for converting the diameter of a tree trunk into the amount of carbon contained in the wood. The quantity of carbon absorbed, or lost, by a plot is simply the mathematical difference between how much the trees contain in successive censuses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Lewis set up several dozen sites himself in Cameroon and Congo. But he wanted a record of carbon uptake in the years even before he began. So he sought out plots that had been set up earlier, often for different purposes by other researchers, and often later abandoned.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">One study site was started in 1979 in Liberia by a group of German foresters. The researchers fled the country in the late 1980s during Liberia’s civil war, and the records there were destroyed. But Lewis ferreted out a database of measurements that had been saved on a computer in the Netherlands. After hostilities ended, he drove to Liberia’s only remaining rainforest in 2007 with a sketch of the research locations and found a local resident who had helped conduct the original census. “He led us straight to tree number one of the census,” Lewis said. “Now they’re a core part of our network.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;">Expanding the network</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In 2013, Lewis hired Hubau to expand the network and look into questionable data on existing sites. It wasn’t easy. They wanted patches scattered all across central Africa, as far as possible from human influence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Hubau reached one site in Congo by motorcycle to find trunks as expansive and true as Greek columns, rising 10 stories above him. He had brought along a sheaf of papers that contained the vitals of each tree with a trunk thicker than his wrist. It amounted to 376 trees, when last counted in 2014.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Hubau noted which trees had died since then and which trees had grown big enough to be added to the roster. He wrapped a tape measure around the trunk of each tree. For trees too broad for Hubau’s lanky arms to hug, a helper would pass the dangling end of the tape measure around.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">But the site had serious complications. The 2014 crew had nailed numbered tags identifying each tree too tightly to the trunks. Subsequent growth had swallowed up some of them. Termites had attacked red blazes that a 2012 team had painted to mark the height from the ground at which they had applied their tapes. Tree girth must be checked at the same place each time. Even a slight change in the measurement point introduces errors that throw off the carbon tally.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">After two days of sweaty labor and detective work, Hubau had identified and measured every tree in that plot.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;">Predicting the sink's future</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The new Nature paper combines the work of researchers and field assistants who studied 135,625 trees at 244 African plots in 11 countries with data that, in some cases, goes back to the 1960s. It concludes that, on average, African trees absorbed the same amount of carbon dioxide for two decades through 2014. But a subset of trees began to lose their capacity to absorb carbon as early as 2010.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A typical acre of African jungle accumulates an extra 1,200 pounds of wood every year, equivalent to about half a cord of firewood. Like their Amazonian counterparts, the African forests appear to benefit from carbon dioxide fertilization — they grow more quickly as the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">But higher temperatures and increased drought, both detrimental to tree growth, are eroding the benefits of carbon fertilization, according to the new study.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Lewis, Hubau and a long list of colleagues used the African records, combined with a comparable set already available from the Amazon, to tease out the factors that influence the health of the tropical carbon sink and to predict its future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Researchers have already documented a reduction in carbon uptake in the Amazon rainforest. In a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273763195_Long-term_decline_of_the_Amazon_carbon_sink" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); color: #1955a5; text-decoration-line: none;">2015 paper also published in Nature</a>, scientists found that intact Amazon jungle absorbed 30 percent less carbon in the 2000s than in the 1990s. The new study finds that Africa is lagging only 10 or 20 years behind the Amazon. Hubau says central African forests are cooler than those in the Amazon, a factor that has delayed the impact of rising temperatures.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“This carbon sink is turning off far earlier than even the most pessimistic of these climate models,” Lewis said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Now, “we’ll have to cut emissions faster than expected,” said Betts, of the Hadley Centre.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Grossman’s reporting in Congo was supported by the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/the-congo-rainforest-is-losing-its-ability-to-absorb-carbon-dioxide-thats-bad-for-climate-change/2020/03/03/3363d218-5ca9-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/the-congo-rainforest-is-losing-its-ability-to-absorb-carbon-dioxide-thats-bad-for-climate-change/2020/03/03/3363d218-5ca9-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html</span></a></div>
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Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-72560146783135468292020-03-08T13:53:00.000-05:002020-03-08T13:53:10.831-05:00Mark Carney of the Bank of England unveils climate stress test<a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/bank-of-england-unveils-climate-stress-test/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #07508d; cursor: pointer; font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: inherit; opacity: 0.6; orphans: 2; outline: none !important; text-align: start; text-decoration: none !important; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" title="Bank of England unveils climate stress test"><img alt="" class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" height="491" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-800x491.jpg" srcset="https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-800x491.jpg 800w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-300x184.jpg 300w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-1024x629.jpg 1024w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-768x472.jpg 768w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-1536x944.jpg 1536w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986-1200x737.jpg 1200w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/31155410/climate-stress-scaled-e1577807696986.jpg 2017w" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 1.5rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 804.5px;" width="800" /></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Every financial institution needs a climate plan, says Mark Carney. <em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Image: By <a href="https://unsplash.com/@markusspiske?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #2c6893; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Markus Spiske</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/s/photos/climate-change?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #2c6893; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Unsplash</a></em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">by Kieran Cooke, <i>Climate News Network</i>, January 1, 2020</span><br />
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Tackling climate change isn’t just about replacing fossil fuels with renewables, or planting more trees. It’s about confronting climate stress across society.</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">LONDON –</em> The warming world means climate stress now permeates every part of society. And so an entire financial system which has underpinned the growth of a global economy largely dependent on fossil fuels must be reoriented to deal with what is fast becoming a full-blown crisis.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A campaign <a href="https://theenergymix.com/2018/11/29/snapshot-fossil-divestment-gains-momentum-as-global-finance-begins-to-realign/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">to halt or withdraw multi-million dollar investments</a> from industries associated with fossil fuel use is gaining momentum. And the central banks – the institutions responsible for regulating countries’ financial systems – are now taking action.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Leading the charge is the venerable <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Bank of England</a> (BOE), one of the oldest such institutions in the world. In December it became the first central bank to announce what it terms a banking stress test on climate change.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Under <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2019/december/boe-consults-on-proposals-for-stress-testing-the-financial-stability-implications-of-climate-change" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">the BOE’s stress test framework</a>, banks and insurance companies will be required to go through their books to evaluate their exposure to the impacts of climate change.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If, for instance, a British bank has loaned money to a company building a coal-fired power plant, the BOE will require the bank concerned to hold a substantial amount of additional capital to cover the risks of the project being abandoned because of new regulations or other climate change-related factors.</span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“A question for every company, every financial institution, every asset manager, pension fund or insurer is what’s your plan on climate change”</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In the same way, if an insurance group has granted cover to houses on a flood plain, or to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/26/rising-sea-levels-will-claim-homes-around-english-coast-report-warns" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">coastal properties which could be subject to rises in sea level</a> – or if a bank has granted mortgages on such properties – the BOE will require additional capital to be held to cover the financial risks involved.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/51095565" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Other financial institutions are examining ways</a> in which their activities can be <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/climate-change-central-banks-and-financial-risk-grippa.htm" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">protected from the more serious impacts of a warming world</a>. Several insurance groups have announced <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/coal-is-now-too-hot-for-insurers-to-handle/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">plans to withdraw cover from fossil fuel projects</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Central banks are following the BOE’s lead: a body with the somewhat cumbersome title of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) now has more than 40 members – all involved in monitoring the risks climate change poses to the finance sector.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The BOE’s action has two aims. One is to ensure the financial system can withstand the considerable financial costs posed by climate change. The other is to encourage financial institutions to invest their funds in more sustainable, environmentally friendly projects.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Mark Carney, the outgoing BOE governor who is soon to take up a post as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50621625" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">UN special envoy for climate action and finance</a>, describes the BOE stress test as the first comprehensive assessment of whether the financial system is on track to help deliver a transition to a sustainable future.</span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Worthless assets possible</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“A question for every company, every financial institution, every asset manager, pension fund or insurer is what’s your plan (on climate change),” <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50868717" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Carney told the BBC</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">He says that unless the finance sector and large companies wake up to the scale of the climate crisis, many of the assets they now hold in fossil fuels and other enterprises will become worthless.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Some financial institutions are taking action, says the BOE governor, divesting from investments in fossil fuels and becoming involved in more sustainable projects, but progress is still far too slow. Time is of the essence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“The climate emergency continues to build. The next year will be critical,” says Carney.</span></div>
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<a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/bank-of-england-unveils-climate-stress-test/"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://climatenewsnetwork.net/bank-of-england-unveils-climate-stress-test/</span></a></div>
Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-69569929564888311322020-03-08T13:39:00.002-05:002020-03-08T13:39:48.486-05:00Tropical forests may be heating Earth by 2035by Tim Radford, <i>Climate News Network</i>, March 6, 2020<br />
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<a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/tropical-forests-may-be-heating-earth-by-2035/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #07508d; cursor: pointer; font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: inherit; opacity: 0.6; orphans: 2; outline: none !important; text-align: start; text-decoration: none !important; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" title="Tropical forests may be heating Earth by 2035"><img alt="" class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" height="427" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/06100038/tropical-forests-e1583488873417-800x427.jpg" srcset="https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/06100038/tropical-forests-e1583488873417-800x427.jpg 800w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/06100038/tropical-forests-e1583488873417-300x160.jpg 300w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/06100038/tropical-forests-e1583488873417-768x410.jpg 768w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/06100038/tropical-forests-e1583488873417.jpg 955w" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 1.5rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 804.5px;" width="800" /></a><br />
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<a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/tropical-forests-may-be-heating-earth-by-2035/" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #07508d; cursor: pointer; font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: inherit; opacity: 0.6; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;" title="Tropical forests may be heating Earth by 2035"></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Bayaka people in the Central African Republic rainforest. <em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Image: By JMGRACIA100, via Wikimedia Commons</em></span></div>
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<strong style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #111111; font-size: 1rem; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Climate change so far has meant more vigorous forest growth as greenhouse gases rise. The tropical forests may soon change that.</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">LONDON, 6 March, 2020 –</em> Within about fifteen years, the great tropical forests of Amazonia and Africa <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/uol-tfc030220.php" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">could stop absorbing atmospheric carbon</a>, and slowly start to release more carbon than growing trees can fix.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A team of scientists from 100 research institutions has looked at the evidence from pristine tracts of tropical forest to find that – overall – the foliage <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/greenhouse-gases-have-a-puzzling-double-effect/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">soaked up the most carbon, most efficiently, more than two decades ago</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Since then, the measured efficiency of the forests as a “sink” in which carbon is sequestered from the atmosphere has been dwindling. By the last decade, the ability of a tropical forest to absorb carbon had dropped by a third.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">All plant growth is a balancing act based on sunshine and atmospheric carbon and rainfall. Plants absorb carbon dioxide as they grow, and surrender it as they die.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In a dense, undisturbed wilderness, fallen leaves and even fallen trees are slightly less likely to decompose completely: the atmospheric carbon in leaf and wood form has a better chance of being preserved in flooded forests as peat, or being buried before it can completely decompose.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The forest becomes a bank vault, repository or sink of the extra carbon that humans are now spilling into the atmosphere from car exhausts, factory chimneys and power station furnaces.</span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Theory and practice</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And in theory, as more and more carbon dioxide gets into the atmosphere, <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/humans-leave-greater-green-fingerprints/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">plants respond to the more generous fertilization</a> by growing more vigorously, and absorbing more carbon.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But as more carbon gets into the atmosphere, the temperature rises and <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-change-causes-killer-heatwaves/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">weather patterns begin to become more extreme</a>. Summers get hotter, rainfall more capricious. Then trees become vulnerable to drought, forest fire and invasive diseases, and die more often, and decompose more completely.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.africamuseum.be/en/staff/1091" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Wannes Hubau, once of the University of Leeds in the UK and now at the Royal Museum for Central Africa in Belgium</a>, and more than 100 colleagues from around the world, report in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;"><i>Nature</i></a> that they assembled 30 years of measurement from more than 300,000 trees in 244 undisturbed plots of forest in 11 countries in Africa, and from 321 plots of forest in Amazonia, and did the sums.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In the 1990s, intact tropical forests removed around 46 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. By the 2010s, the uptake had fallen to around 25 billion tonnes. This means that 21 billion tons of greenhouse gas that might otherwise have been turned into timber and root had been added to the atmosphere.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This is pretty much what the UK, France, Germany and Canada together spilled into the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion over a 10-year period.</span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“We’ve found one of the most worrying impacts of climate change has already begun. This is decades ahead of even the most pessimistic climate models”</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Extra carbon boosts tree growth, but every year this effect is being increasingly countered by the negative impacts of higher temperatures and droughts which slow growth and can kill trees,” said Dr Hubau.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Our modeling shows a long-term decline in the African sink and that <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/growing-threat-to-amazons-crucial-carbon-sink/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">the Amazon sink will continue to rapidly weaken</a>, which we predict will become a carbon source in the mid-2030s.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Tropical forests are <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/23288-2/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">an integral factor in the planetary carbon budget</a> – a crude accounting system that climate scientists rely upon <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/the-carbon-budget-doesnt-add-up-2/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">to model the choice of futures that face humankind</a> as the world heats up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Around half of Earth’s carbon is stored in terrestrial vegetation and the tropical forests account for about a third of the planet’s primary productivity. So how forests respond to a warmer world is vital.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Because the Amazon region is being hit by <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/cyclic-drought-destabilise-amazon/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">higher temperatures, and more frequent and prolonged droughts than forests in tropical Africa</a>, Amazonia is weakening at a faster rate.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But decline has also begun in Africa. In the 1990s, the undisturbed tropical forests alone inhaled 17% of human-made carbon dioxide emissions. In the decade just ended, this proportion fell to 6%.</span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Catastrophic prospect</span></strong></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In roughly the same period, the area of intact forest fell by 19%, and global carbon dioxide emissions rose by 46%. Even so, the tropical forests store 250 billion tonnes of carbon in their trees alone: 90 years of fossil fuel emissions at the present rate. So their sustained loss would be catastrophic.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Intact tropical forests remain a vital carbon sink but this research reveals that unless policies are put in place to stabilize the Earth’s climate, it is only a matter of time until they are no longer able to sequester carbon,” said <a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/geography/staff/1062/professor-simon-lewis" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Simon Lewis, a geographer at the University of Leeds</a>, and one of the authors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“One big concern for the future of humanity is when carbon-cycle feedbacks really kick in, with nature switching from slowing climate change to accelerating it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“After years of work deep in the Congo and Amazon rain forests, we’ve found one of the most worrying impacts of climate change has already begun.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“This is decades ahead of even the most pessimistic climate models. There is no time to lose in tackling climate change.” </span></div>
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<a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/tropical-forests-may-be-heating-earth-by-2035/"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://climatenewsnetwork.net/tropical-forests-may-be-heating-earth-by-2035/</span></a></div>
Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-59611693238516682072020-02-07T23:15:00.000-06:002020-02-07T23:15:12.659-06:00Roger Harrabin, BBC: Bank of England chief Mark Carney issues climate change warning<h1 class="story-body__h1" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #1e1e1e; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.125; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: small;">Bank of England chief Mark Carney issues climate change warning</span></h1>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">by Roger Harrabin, BBC Environment Analyst, BBC, December 30, 2019</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Readers, please see link at the bottom to go to the video interview.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The world will face irreversible heating unless firms shift their priorities soon, the outgoing head of the Bank of England has told the BBC.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Mark Carney said the financial sector had begun to curb investment in fossil fuels – but far too slowly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">He said leading pension fund analysis "is that if you add up the policies of all of companies out there, they are consistent with warming of 3.7-3.8C".</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Mr Carney made the comments in a pre-recorded <a class="story-body__link" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #222222; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">BBC Radio 4 Today interview.</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The interview, by presenter Mishal Husain, is one of several items on the programme which are focusing on climate change, on the day the show is <a class="story-body__link" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50901789" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #222222; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">guest edited by environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg.</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Mr Carney added that the rise of almost 4C was "far above the 1.5 degrees that the people say they want and governments are demanding.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a class="story-body__link-external" href="https://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 220, 220); border-bottom-style: solid; border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; color: #222222; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Scientists say the risks associated with an increase of 4C include a nine metre rise in sea levels</a> - affecting up to 760 million people – searing heatwaves and droughts, and serious food supply problems.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50868717"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50868717</span></a></div>
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Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-29329241326619662402020-01-22T20:32:00.000-06:002020-01-22T20:32:13.886-06:00Evidence that an ice-free Arctic Ocean allowed ancient CO2 and methane emissions<a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/ice-free-arctic-ocean-allowed-ancient-carbon-leaks/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #2c6893; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;" title="Ice-free Arctic Ocean allowed ancient carbon leaks"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img alt="" class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" height="418" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" src="https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-800x418.jpg" srcset="https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-800x418.jpg 800w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-300x157.jpg 300w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-1024x535.jpg 1024w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-768x401.jpg 768w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-1536x803.jpg 1536w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756-1200x627.jpg 1200w, https://files.climatenewsnetwork.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/09174838/ice-free-Arctic-Ocean-e1578592152756.jpg 1600w" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 1.5rem; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 804.5px;" width="800" /></span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Speleothems like these form fastest when the permafrost has thawed. <em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Image: By James St John, via Wikimedia Commons</em></span></div>
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<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As the world warms, more greenhouse gas will enter the atmosphere. Researchers now think an ice-free Arctic Ocean explains how and why.</span></strong><br />
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">by Tim Radford, <i>Climate News Network</i>, January 10, 2020</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><br /></em></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">LONDON –</em> Deep in a cave in Siberia, Israeli, Russian and British scientists <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/uoo-sam010620.php" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">have identified evidence of periodic losses of carbon from the permafrost</a>. And the unexpected link is not simply with peak periods of bygone global warming, but with an ice-free Arctic Ocean.</span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The escape into the atmosphere of prodigious volumes of methane and carbon dioxide from the thawing soils is in step not with average planetary temperature rise, but with long periods when the Arctic Ocean is free of ice every summer.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Fact one: about one quarter of land in the northern hemisphere is now, and has been for much of the last half million years, permanently frozen, and with it about <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-soils-may-produce-huge-methane-leak/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">twice as much atmospheric carbon</a> – in the form of peat and preserved vegetation – as there exists freely in the planetary atmosphere.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Fact two: in the most recent decades, sea ice has been both thinning and dwindling rapidly, and <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-ocean-ice-free-mid-century/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">the polar ocean could by 2050 become almost entirely ice-free</a> in the summer months.</span>
<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“This discovery about the behaviour of the permafrost suggests that the expected loss of Arctic sea ice will accelerate melting of the permafrost presently found across much of Siberia”</span></strong>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">And <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/rapid-warming-brings-arctic-changes/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">this twist in the tale of a rapidly-warming Arctic</a> is preserved in stalagmite formations in a cave deep beneath the rim of the Arctic Circle in Siberia.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The chronology of stalagmite and stalactite development can be established precisely by the pattern of uranium and lead isotope deposits in formations, built up imperceptibly by the steady drip of water from, and through, the soils far above.</span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">That is, the speleothems – a geologist’s catch-all word for both stalactite and stalagmite – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/speleothem" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">form fastest when the permafrost has thawed</a>. And unexpectedly, the periods of thaw did not match the peaks of interglacial warming during the last 1.35 million years. They did however coincide with periods when the Arctic was ice-free in the summer.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“This discovery about the behaviour of the permafrost suggests that the expected loss of Arctic sea ice in the future will accelerate melting of the permafrost presently found across much of Siberia,” said <a href="https://www.earth.ox.ac.uk/people/gideon-henderson/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">Gideon Henderson of the University of Oxford</a>, and one of the authors of a new study in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1880-1" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;"><i>Nature</i></a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The argument goes like this: if there is no sea ice then more heat and moisture is delivered from the ocean to the atmosphere, with warmer air flowing over Siberia, and therefore more autumn snowfall. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A blanket of snow insulates the soil beneath from the extreme winter cold, so ground temperatures go up, to unsettle the permafrost and start a thaw that leads to accelerated plant decay and ever-increasing escape of carbon dioxide and methane that would otherwise have been frozen into the permafrost.</span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So the stalagmites endure as evidence of these warmer soils and survive as a direct link to periods of ice-free ocean.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">“If these processes continue during modern climate change, <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/russia-moves-to-exploit-arctic-riches/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black; box-sizing: inherit; color: #00826f; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease-in 0s !important;">future loss of summer Arctic sea ice</a> will accelerate the thawing of Siberian permafrost,” the scientists say. </span>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/ice-free-arctic-ocean-allowed-ancient-carbon-leaks/">https://climatenewsnetwork.net/ice-free-arctic-ocean-allowed-ancient-carbon-leaks/</a></span>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-89301391769826116962020-01-19T18:20:00.002-06:002020-01-19T18:20:51.976-06:00Nick Breeze: Coping with climate distress - interview with psychotherapist Ro Randall<b style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Coping with climate distress - interview with psychotherapist Ro Randall</b><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Nick Breeze</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">for more information visit </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://envisionation.co.uk&source=gmail&ust=1579565913134000&usg=AFQjCNHYN7Ru4AlDJ8ojSK3JmuSOEasnhw" href="https://envisionation.co.uk/" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" target="_blank">https://envisionation.co.uk</a><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">or </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org&source=gmail&ust=1579565913134000&usg=AFQjCNHdZjABupXdrWcsRDLrE9bLXEPHcw" href="https://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" target="_blank">https://www.<wbr></wbr>climatepsychologyalliance.org</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">[or </span><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://climatepsychology.us/&source=gmail&ust=1579565913134000&usg=AFQjCNGFOPsA3wcM4bQEPerJPDf14NPpOw" href="https://climatepsychology.us/" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" target="_blank">https://climatepsychology.us/</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">]</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Ro Randall is psychotherapist specialising in climate-related distresswith many years researching the impact of the climate crisis on individuals and climate groups.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DkifHu04ZzzA&source=gmail&ust=1579565913134000&usg=AFQjCNFdhTPHuFHzGAfNEQRaxQorVwdB7A" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kifHu04ZzzA" style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?<wbr></wbr>v=kifHu04ZzzA</a>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-67115169630059780002019-09-03T10:07:00.000-05:002019-09-03T10:07:36.874-05:00Dorian Hammering Grand Bahama Island: Prolonged Storm Surge Threat Ahead for Southeast U.S.<h1 _ngcontent-c2="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 1.875rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
<span _ngcontent-c2="" class="article-author" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px;"><em _ngcontent-c2="" style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">by <a _ngcontent-c2="" class="article-author-link" href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/author/bob.henson" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: dimgrey; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">Bob Henson</a>, Wunderground, Cat6, </em> · </span><span _ngcontent-c2="" class="article-created-date" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 14px; white-space: nowrap;">September 2, 2019, 1:34 PM EDT</span></h1>
<img _ngcontent-c2="" class="article-img" src="https://s.w-x.co/wu/dorian-iss.jpg" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1e2023; display: inline-block; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; height: auto; margin-bottom: 20px; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 833.328px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #1e2023; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></span><br />
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<tr style="background-color: #f7f7f7; box-sizing: inherit;"><td style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0.5rem 0.625rem 0.625rem;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Above:</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/Astro_Christina" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">@astro_christina</a> captured this image of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneDorian?src=hashtag_click" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">#HurricaneDorian</a> on September 2, 2019 from the space station.</td></tr>
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After thrashing Great Abaco Island on Saturday, Dorian has parked over Grand Bahama Island, which has been getting the most fierce and prolonged battering from an extreme Atlantic hurricane in history. According to the <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#/search/basin/4,10,2,7/filter/categories/H5/pressure//years/1924,1925,1926,1927,1928,1929,1930,1931,1932,1933,1934,1935,1936,1937,1938,1939,1940,1941,1942,1943,1944,1945,1946,1947,1948,1949,1950,1951,1952,1953,1954,1955,1956,1957,1958,1959,1960,1961,1962,1963,1964,1965,1966,1967,1968,1969,1970,1971,1972,1973,1974,1975,1976,1977,1978,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">NOAA historical hurricane database</a>, the only comparable Category 5 beating is the one administered to Honduras by Hurricane Mitch of 1998, which spent 12 hours within 50 miles of the island of Guanaja as a Category 5 storm. However, Mitch's eye did not stay parked over land like Dorian's has.</div>
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At 3 pm EDT, Dorian was centered about 25 miles east-northeast of Freeport, moving west-northwest at just 1 mph. The hurricane’s eyewall has been slamming the island since 9 pm EDT Sunday, and storm surge has been extreme and prolonged over many areas. Sustained winds were 150 mph, not far below Category 5 strength. However, Hurricane Hunters confirmed a break in the eyewall on Monday afternoon, and the central pressure had risen to 941 millibars, so we can expect Dorian's strength to be further downgraded on Monday evening.</div>
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“These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island,” said the National Hurricane Center in a <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/021600.shtml" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">noon update</a>. There have been multiple reports of storm-surge flooding forcing residents to take shelter in attics.</div>
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“The Bahamas is presently at war and being attacked by Hurricane Dorian,” Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis <a href="https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/09/02/pm-we-are-at-war-with-hurricane-dorian/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">told</a> the Nassau Guardian. “And yet, it has no weapon at its disposal to defend itself during such an assault by this enemy.”</div>
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This is a topographic map of Grand Bahama island.<br />
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Green: 0-15 ft<br />
Yellow: 15-30 ft<br />
Red: 30+ ft<br />
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Dorian's storm surge is estimated at 18-23 ft, which would submerge everything in green and significant parts of the yellow. Hopefully most people managed to move to safe locations.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Storm surge: the biggest U.S. threat from Dorian</span></h2>
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After days of uncertainty on crucial aspects of Dorian’s track, computer models came into sharper agreement on Sunday night. The 0Z ensemble model runs from the European and GFS models closely agreed that Dorian will arc northeastward just off the coast from east central Florida on Tuesday to south of North Carolina by Friday. A small minority (about 10%) of ensemble tracks produce brief, grazing landfalls.</div>
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The latest 12Z Monday runs of the four track models that performed best in the two-day time range in 2018—the European, UKMET, HWRF, and GFS—have all fallen in line with a track about 50 - 80 miles from the coast of Florida and Georgia, then growing very close to the coast or making landfall in the Carolinas. Hurricane watches are not issued until 48 hours before a landfall threat, so we can expect such watches to be extended up the Southeast coast over the next day or two as the threat unfolds. Remember that the average error in a 24-hour NHC forecast is about 40 miles, and a 48-hour forecast is typically in error by about 65 miles.</div>
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The long awaited stall of <a class="PrettyLink hashtag customisable" data-query-source="hashtag_click" data-scribe="element:hashtag" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hurricane?src=hash" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">#</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">Hurricane</span></a> <a class="PrettyLink hashtag customisable" data-query-source="hashtag_click" data-scribe="element:hashtag" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dorain?src=hash" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">#</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">Dorain</span></a> occurred last night, unfortunately over <a class="PrettyLink hashtag customisable" data-query-source="hashtag_click" data-scribe="element:hashtag" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GrandBahama?src=hash" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">#</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">GrandBahama</span></a> island <img alt="☹️" aria-label="Emoji: Frowning face" class="Emoji Emoji--forText" draggable="false" src="https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/2639.png" style="border: 0px; height: 1.25em; padding: 0px 0.05em 0px 0.1em; vertical-align: -0.2em; width: 1.25em;" title="Frowning face" /><br />
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As it remains stalled, it is upwelling cooler water underneath. We see this effect via warming cloud tops near the center. More weakening expected in the short term.</div>
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Here is the 24h HWRF forecast for <a class="PrettyLink hashtag customisable" data-query-source="hashtag_click" data-scribe="element:hashtag" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dorian?src=hash" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">#</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">Dorian</span></a> parent domain just looking at the SST field underneath. You can follow the cold wake of the storm track, but notice the <26c br="" dorian.="" ssts="" under=""><br />This would likely induce continued weakening until Dorian moves away from its own cold wake.</26c></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Comparing Dorian and Matthew</span></h2>
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The consensus track for Dorian bears a <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-08-31-coast-hugging-southeast-hurricanes-deadly-billion-dollar-threat" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">close resemblance</a> to that of 2016’s Hurricane Matthew, which caused more than $10 billion in U.S. damage as it curled very near the coast from Florida to North Carolina on a coast-hugging track. The lastest NHC forecast has Dorian following Matthew's track within about 20 miles, all the way from central Florida to South Carolina. What are the similarities and differences?</div>
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—<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Size: </span>Dorian is about the same size as Matthew. During its track up the Southeast U.S. coast, Matthew had hurricane-force winds that extended out about 45 mlies to the northwest of the center, and tropical storm-force winds that extended out about 120 miles. For Wednesday, NHC is predicting that Dorian's hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds will extend out 40 and 120 miles to the northwest, respectively.</div>
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—<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Speed: </span>Dorian will be a slower mover than Matthew, especially near Florida. Matthew took <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">a day and a hal</a>f to get from just east of Florida's Space Coast to just south of Wilmington, North Carolina. Dorian is predicted to take <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/154449.shtml?cone#contents" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">about two days</a> to cover the same territory. As a result, water will pile up along the Southeast coast ahead of Dorian for a longer period than with Matthew, and peak flooding may extend over multiple tidal cycles.</div>
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—<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Strength: </span>Dorian will probably be about as strong as Matthew, perhaps a little stronger. Dorian will likely weaken to Category 3 strength as it moves near northern Florida, and it will likely be a Category 1 or 2 off North Carolina. This is quite similar to the weakening that Matthew experienced, although Matthew was already a minimal Category 1 by the time it reached northern South Carolina.</div>
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—<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">Track:</span> It’s uncertain at this point exactly where Dorian may track closer to or farther from the coast than Matthew. Matthew made landfall just north of Charleston, South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane. Dorian is more likely to make landfall in North Carolina, according to the latest NHC forecast.</div>
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All told, Dorian will have the potential to produce some of the largest storm surges on record along the Southeast coast, and will likely be a multi-billion dollar storm due to storm surge damages alone. Whether or not local all-time records occur, as they did during Matthew in 2016 at several locations, will hinge on Dorian’s exact track, timing, and strength.<br />
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Dorian is not moving into a strong preexisting frontal zone, so rainfall well inland will not be excessive, at least initially. The most concerning area for potential inland flooding is North Carolina, as by the time Dorian reaches this location (around Friday) it may be producing an expansive shield of rains to its north and northeast. Widespread rains of 5-10” and localized amounts well over 10” may be possible across eastern North Carolina, which was devastated by massive inland flooding during Matthew as well as during Florence (2018) and Floyd (1999).</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit;">President Trump says he didn’t know Category 5 hurricanes existed</span></h2>
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On Sunday, President Trump expressed his surprise over Hurricane Dorian’s Category 5 strength, saying:</div>
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“I’m not sure I’ve ever even heard of a Category 5. I knew it existed. And I’ve seen some Category 4s. You don’t even see them that much. But a Category 5 is something that, uh, I don’t know that I’ve never even heard the term, other than I know it’s there. That’s the ultimate. And that’s what we have, unfortunately.”</div>
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But the President knew full well that Category 5 hurricanes exist, based on his past comments. As <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/02/hurricane-dorian-illustrates-president-trumps-category-hurricane-problem/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">reported today</a> by the Capital Weather Gang’s Andrew Freedman, Trump has expressed shock at the existence of Category 5 storms at least two other times: during Hurricane Irma in 2017 (“never even knew a Category 5 existed”) and Hurricane Michael in 2018 (never heard about Category 5s before.”) Oddly, though, Trump has repeatedly called Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017, a Category 5—even though it was a Category 4 at landfall. Troublingly, since the president is in charge of ordering disaster relief in the wake of a hurricane, his Category 5 misconceptions could lead to a slowing or mis-allocation of resources.</div>
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President Donald Trump on the existence of Category 5 hurricanes, 2017-2019.</div>
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Trump’s Category 5 blindness is also financially dangerous for a businessman who owns a multi-million-dollar property on a barrier island in a hurricane storm surge zone--the Mar-a-Largo resort in Palm Beach, Florida. NOAA’s <a href="http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">National Storm Surge Hazard Maps database</a> predicts that Mar-a-Largo would see inundations of up to 3 – 6’ on the back-bay side during a Category 5 hurricane. The resort was <a href="https://www.wtsp.com/article/weather/hurricane/mar-a-lago-evacuated-boarded-up-hurricane-dorian/67-69d93323-6d79-400c-ac81-6c0fc2da87a3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">evacuated and boarded up</a> for Dorian, after a 1 pm Sunday evacuation order was given for the barrier island.</div>
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Also concerning is the President’s failure to understand the size of Dorian. On Sunday, he tweeted: "In addition to Florida – South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever.”</div>
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In these comments, President Trump confused the strength of the storm for its size. The intensity of a hurricane’s peak winds <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-01-dorian-isnt-yet-huge-hurricane-but-may-become-one-this-week" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">is not correlated with the areal size</a>, and Dorian is an average-sized hurricane whose winds will come nowhere close to affecting Alabama. Officials there had to scramble to put out statements refuting the President’s misinformation. Unfortunately, he <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-dorian-donald-trump-alabama-florida-1457178" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">repeated the claim</a> later at a FEMA press conference. He told journalists: "And Alabama could even be in for at least some very strong winds and something more than that, it could be. This just came up, unfortunately. It's the size of the storm that we're talking about. So, for Alabama, just please be careful also.”</div>
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Finally, we should be concerned about the President’s reported willingness to use nuclear weapons on hurricanes. According to an August 25, 2019 report from <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes-97231f38-2394-4120-a3fa-8c9cf0e3f51c.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1088b0; cursor: pointer; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;">Axios</a>, citing inside sources, during one hurricane briefing at the White House, Trump said (paraphrasing the president's remarks): "I got it. I got it. Why don't we nuke them? They start forming off the coast of Africa, as they're moving across the Atlantic, we drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can't we do that? Trump has denied making the statement.</div>
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If one were to detonate a nuclear device in the eyewall of a hurricane, the radioactive fallout would very efficiently be carried high into the atmosphere due to the tremendous upper-level outflow that ventilates a hurricane. In a matter of days, radioactive fallout would be carried around the globe by the sub-tropical jet stream, contaminating rainfall over a huge area. The blast would also have little or no impact on the hurricane, since the amount of energy released by a nuclear device is puny compared to what a hurricane generates. It is also illegal under the terms of the Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union to explode a nuclear weapon in the atmosphere.</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Dr. Jeff Masters co-wrote this post, including the section on President Trump.</em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Hammering-Grand-Bahama-Island-Prolonged-Storm-Surge-Threat-Ahead-Southeast-US">https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Hammering-Grand-Bahama-Island-Prolonged-Storm-Surge-Threat-Ahead-Southeast-US</a></em></div>
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Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-16691346848614884062019-07-30T20:52:00.001-05:002019-07-30T20:52:41.728-05:00The terrible truth of climate change<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">by Joëlle Gergis, <i>The Monthly</i>, 2019</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The latest science is alarming, even for climate scientists</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">In June, I delivered a keynote presentation on Australia’s vulnerability to climate change and our policy challenges at the annual meeting of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, the main conference for those working in the climate science community. I saw it as an opportunity to summarize the post-election political and scientific reality we now face.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">As one of the dozen or so Australian lead authors on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report, currently underway, I have a deep appreciation of the speed and severity of climate change unfolding across the planet. Last year I was also appointed as one of the scientific advisers to the Climate Council, Australia’s leading independent body providing expert advice to the public on climate science and policy. In short, I am in the confronting position of being one of the few Australians who sees the terrifying reality of the climate crisis.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Preparing for this talk I experienced something gut-wrenching. It was the realization that there is now nowhere to hide from the terrible truth.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The last time this happened to me, I was visiting my father in hospital following emergency surgery for a massive brain haemorrhage. As he lay unconscious in intensive care, I examined his CT scan with one of the attending surgeons who gently explained that the dark patch covering nearly a quarter of the image of his brain was a pool of blood. Although they had done their best to drain the area and stem the bleeding, the catastrophic nature of the damage was undeniable. The brutality of the evidence was clear – the full weight of it sent my stomach into freefall.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The results coming out of the climate science community at the moment are, even for experts, similarly alarming.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">One common metric used to investigate the effects of global warming is known as “equilibrium climate sensitivity,” defined as the full amount of global surface warming that will eventually occur in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations compared to pre-industrial times. It’s sometimes referred to as the holy grail of climate science because it helps quantify the specific risks posed to human society as the planet continues to warm.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">We know that CO2 concentrations have risen from pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million (ppm) to approximately 410 ppm today, the highest recorded in at least three million years. Without major mitigation efforts, we are likely to reach 560 ppm by around 2060.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">When the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report was published in 2013, it estimated that such a doubling of CO2 was likely to produce warming within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 °C as the Earth reaches a new equilibrium. However, preliminary estimates calculated from the latest global climate models (being used in the current IPCC assessment, due out in 2021) are far higher than with the previous generation of models. Early reports are predicting that a doubling of CO2 may in fact produce between 2.8 and 5.8 °C of warming. Incredibly, at least 8 of the latest models produced by leading research centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and France are showing climate sensitivity of 5 °C or warmer.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">When these results were first released at a climate modelling workshop in March this year, a flurry of panicked emails from my IPCC colleagues flooded my inbox. What if the models are right? Has the Earth already crossed some kind of tipping point? Are we experiencing abrupt climate change right now?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The model runs aren’t all available yet, but when many of the most advanced models in the world are independently reproducing the same disturbing results, it’s hard not to worry.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">When the UN’s Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015, it defined a specific goal: to keep global warming to well below 2 °C and as close as possible to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (defined as the climate conditions experienced during the 1850–1900 period). While admirable in intent, the agreement did not impose legally binding limits on signatory nations and contained no enforcement mechanisms. Instead, each country committed to publicly disclosed Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions. In essence, it is up to each nation to act in the public interest.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Even achieving the most ambitious goal of 1.5 °C will see the further destruction of between 70 and 90% of reef-building corals compared to today, according to the IPCC’s “Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” released last October. With 2 °C of warming, a staggering 99% of tropical coral reefs disappear. An entire component of the Earth’s biosphere – our planetary life support system – would be eliminated. The knock-on effects on the 25% of all marine life that depends on coral reefs would be profound and immeasurable.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">So how is the Paris Agreement actually panning out?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">In 2017, we reached 1 °C of warming above global pre-industrial conditions. According to the UN Environment Program’s “Emissions Gap Report,” released in November 2018, current unconditional NDCs will see global average temperature rise by 2.9 to 3.4 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">To restrict warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the world needs to triple its current emission reduction pledges. If that’s not bad enough, to restrict global warming to 1.5 °C, global ambition needs to increase five-fold.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Meanwhile, the Australian federal government has a target of reducing emissions by 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030, which experts believe is more aligned with global warming of 3 to 4 °C. Despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s claim that we will meet our Paris Agreement commitments “in a canter,” the UNEP report clearly identifies Australia as one of the G20 nations that will fall short of achieving its already inadequate NDCs by 2030.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Even with the 1 °C of warming we’ve already experienced, 50% of the Great Barrier Reef is dead. We are witnessing catastrophic ecosystem collapse of the largest living organism on the planet. As I share this horrifying information with audiences around the country, I often pause to allow people to try and really take that information in.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Increasingly after my speaking events, I catch myself unexpectedly weeping in my hotel room or on flights home. Every now and then, the reality of what the science is saying manages to thaw the emotionally frozen part of myself I need to maintain to do my job. In those moments, what surfaces is pure grief. It’s the only feeling that comes close to the pain I felt processing the severity of my dad’s brain injury. Being willing to acknowledge the arrival of the point of no return is an act of bravery.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">But these days my grief is rapidly being superseded by rage. Volcanically explosive rage. Because in the very same IPCC report that outlines the details of the impending apocalypse, the climate science community clearly stated that limiting warming to 1.5 °C is geophysically possible.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Past emissions alone are unlikely to raise global average temperatures to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. The IPCC report states that any further warming beyond the 1 °C already recorded would likely be less than 0.5 °C over the next 20 to 30 years, if all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions were reduced to zero immediately. That is, if we act urgently, it is technically feasible to turn things around. The only thing missing is strong global policy.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Although the very foundation of human civilization is at stake, the world is on track to seriously overshoot our UN targets. Worse still, global carbon emissions are still rising. In response, scientists are prioritizing research on how the planet has responded during other warm periods in the Earth’s history.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The most comprehensive summary of conditions experienced during past warm periods in the Earth’s recent history was published in June 2018 in one of our leading journals, <i>Nature Geoscience</i>, by 59 leading experts from 17 countries. The report concluded that warming of between 1.5 and 2 °C in the past was enough to see significant shifts in climate zones, and land and aquatic ecosystems “spatially reorganize.”</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">These changes triggered substantial long-term melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, unleashing 6 to 13 meters of global sea-level rise lasting thousands of years.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Examining the Earth’s climatic past tells us that even between 1.5 and 2 °C of warming sees the world reconfigure in ways that people don’t yet appreciate. All bets are off between 3 and 4 °C, where we are currently headed. Parts of Australia will become uninhabitable, as other areas of our country become increasingly ravaged by extreme weather events.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">This year the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s annual conference was held in Darwin, where the infamous Cyclone Tracy struck on Christmas Day in 1974, virtually demolishing the entire city. More than 70% of the city’s buildings, including 80% of its houses, were destroyed. Seventy-one people were killed and most of the 48,000 residents made homeless. Conditions were so dire that around 36,000 people were evacuated, many by military aircraft. It was a disaster of monumental proportions.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">As I collated this information for my presentation, it became clear to me that Cyclone Tracy is a warning. Without major action, we will see tropical cyclones drifting into areas on the southern edge of current cyclone zones, into places such as southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales, where infrastructure is not ready to cope with cyclonic conditions.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">These areas currently house more than 3.6 million people; we simply aren’t prepared for what is upon us.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">There is a very rational reason why Australian schoolkids are now taking to the streets – the immensity of what is at stake is truly staggering. Staying silent about this planetary emergency no longer feels like an option for me either. Given how disconnected policy is from scientific reality in this country, an urgent and pragmatic national conversation is now essential. Otherwise, living on a destabilized planet is the terrible truth that we will all face.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">As a climate scientist at this fraught point in our history, the most helpful thing I can offer is the same professionalism that the doctor displayed late that night in Dad’s intensive-care ward. A clear-eyed and compassionate look at the facts.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">We still have time to try and avert the scale of the disaster, but we must respond as we would in an emergency. The question is, can we muster the best of our humanity in time?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Joëlle Gergis</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Joëlle Gergis is an award-winning climate scientist and writer based at the Australian National University. She is the author of <i>Sunburnt Country: The History and Future of Climate Change in Australia</i>.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">© 2019 The Monthly. All rights reserved.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/august/1566136800/jo-lle-gergis/terrible-truth-climate-change"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/august/1566136800/jo-lle-gergis/terrible-truth-climate-change</span></a>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-22895446936129016132019-06-23T21:09:00.000-05:002019-06-23T21:09:44.393-05:00Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov & Evgeny Chuvilin: "Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf"; doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060251<div class="html-art-header" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; padding: 0px 0px 0.5em;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px;">Geosciences,</i> 9(<b><i>6</i></b>) (<span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px;">2019)</span> 251</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060251" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060251</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span class="inlineblock" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; margin-right: 3px; max-height: 1e+06px;"><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/search?authors=Natalia%20Shakhova&orcid=" itemprop="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;">Natalia Shakhova</a><span style="bottom: 0.33em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; max-height: 1e+06px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1,2,*</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; margin-left: 5px; max-height: 1e+06px;"></span><a class="toEncode emailCaptcha" data-author-id="1874085" href="mailto:please_login" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="bottom: 0.33em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; max-height: 1e+06px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="fa fa-envelope-o" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1; max-height: 1e+06px; text-rendering: auto;"></span></span></a>,</span><span class="inlineblock" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; margin-right: 3px; max-height: 1e+06px;"><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/search?authors=Igor%20Semiletov&orcid=" itemprop="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;">Igor Semiletov</a><span style="bottom: 0.33em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; max-height: 1e+06px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">1,3,4,5</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; margin-left: 5px; max-height: 1e+06px;"></span><a class="toEncode emailCaptcha" data-author-id="1874086" href="mailto:please_login" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="bottom: 0.33em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; max-height: 1e+06px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="fa fa-envelope-o" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1; max-height: 1e+06px; text-rendering: auto;"></span></span></a> and</span><span class="inlineblock" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline-block; margin-right: 3px; max-height: 1e+06px;"><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/search?authors=Evgeny%20Chuvilin&orcid=0000-0003-1173-546X" itemprop="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;">Evgeny Chuvilin</a><span style="bottom: 0.33em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; max-height: 1e+06px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">6</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; margin-left: 5px; max-height: 1e+06px;"></span><a class="toEncode emailCaptcha" data-author-id="1874087" href="mailto:please_login" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="bottom: 0.33em; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; max-height: 1e+06px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="fa fa-envelope-o" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1; max-height: 1e+06px; text-rendering: auto;"></span></span></a><a href="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1173-546X" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3156a2; line-height: inherit; max-height: 1e+06px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.mdpi.com/img/design/orcid.png?1b5ed457ed71c59e" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; height: auto; margin-left: 3px; max-height: 1e+06px; max-width: 13px !important; position: relative; top: -5px; vertical-align: middle; width: 13px;" title="OrcID" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Institute of Natural Resources, National Tomsk Research Polytechnic University, 30 Prospect Lenina, Tomsk 634050, Russia</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">International Arctic Research Center, University Alaska Fairbanks, Akasofu Building, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Pacific Oceanological Institute, Russian Academy of Science, 41 Baltiiskaya Street, Vladivostok 690022, Russia</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region 141701, Russia</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Science and Education Center, Northern (Arctic) Federal University, Naberezhnaya Severnoy Dvini, 17, Arkhangelsk 163002, Russia</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech), 3, Nobel st., Innovation Center Skolkovo, Moscow 121205, Russia</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Received 4 April 2019; accepted 3 June 2019; published 5 June 2019.</span></div>
<section class="html-abstract" id="html-abstract" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; margin: 1em 0px 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; padding-left: 0.5em;"><h2 id="html-abstract-title" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: inline; line-height: 1.4; margin: 15px 0px 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; padding: 0.5em 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: small;">Abstract</span></h2>
</section><section class="html-abstract" id="html-abstract" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; margin: 1em 0px 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; padding-left: 0.5em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This paper summarizes current understanding of the processes that determine the dynamics of the subsea permafrost–hydrate system existing in the largest, shallowest shelf in the Arctic Ocean; the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). We review key environmental factors and mechanisms that determine formation, current dynamics, and thermal state of subsea permafrost, mechanisms of its destabilization, and rates of its thawing; a full section of this paper is devoted to this topic. Another important question regards the possible existence of permafrost-related hydrates at shallow ground depth and in the shallow shelf environment. We review the history of and earlier insights about the topic followed by an extensive review of experimental work to establish the physics of shallow Arctic hydrates. We also provide a principal (simplified) scheme explaining the normal and altered dynamics of the permafrost–hydrate system as glacial–interglacial climate epochs alternate. We also review specific features of methane releases determined by the current state of the subsea-permafrost system and possible future dynamics. This review presents methane results obtained in the ESAS during two periods: 1994–2000 and 2003–2017. A final section is devoted to discussing future work that is required to achieve an improved understanding of the subject.</span></section><section class="html-abstract" id="html-abstract" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; margin: 1em 0px 0px; max-height: 1e+06px; padding-left: 0.5em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Open access: </span><a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251/htm" style="background-color: transparent;">https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251/htm</a></section>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-52446586765722431172019-04-26T18:45:00.004-05:002019-04-26T18:45:42.610-05:00Science: The ocean’s tallest waves are getting taller<br />
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<ul class="socialshares" data-social-description="Wind-driven waves are growing fastest in the Southern Ocean, new study says" data-social-pub-id="ra-56f2f91059d6f875" data-social-title="The ocean’s tallest waves are getting taller" data-social-url="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/ocean-s-tallest-waves-are-getting-taller" role="complementary" style="-webkit-box-pack: center; box-sizing: inherit; justify-content: center; list-style: none; margin: 2px 0px 15px; padding: 0px;">
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<img sizes="" src="https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/inline__450w__no_aspect/public/wave_16x9.jpg?itok=K4AUuKT_" srcset="https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/inline__450w__no_aspect/public/wave_16x9.jpg?itok=K4AUuKT_ 1w, https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/inline__699w__no_aspect/public/wave_16x9.jpg?itok=loZqYkSn 700w" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; display: block; height: auto; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; width: 762px;" /></div>
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Waves in the stormy Southern Ocean have grown an average of 30 centimeters since 1985.</div>
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The ocean’s tallest waves are getting taller</h1>
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By <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/author/colin-barras" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #37588a; text-decoration-line: none;">Colin Barras</a><time style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(102, 102, 102); box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 400; margin-left: 7.5px; padding-left: 7.5px; white-space: nowrap;">Apr. 25, 2019 , 2:05 PM</time></div>
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The frigid Southern Ocean is well known for its brutal storms, which can sink ships and trigger coastal flooding on distant tropical islands. Now, a new study suggests the biggest waves there—<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/14/massive-78-foot-wave-recorded-in-southern-ocean-a-new-record/?noredirect&utm_term=.2e5ce4fdfddb" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #37588a; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: none;">already the world’s largest</a>—are getting bigger, thanks to faster winds attributed to climate change.</div>
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Peter Ruggiero, a geophysicist at Oregon State University in Corvallis who was not involved in the study, calls the increase “substantial,” and says he is particularly concerned by evidence that the tallest waves are gaining height at the fastest rate. “If [those waves hit] at high tide, it could be potentially catastrophic.”</div>
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For the past 33 years, global satellites have been collecting data on ocean waves—and the winds that drive them. By bouncing energy pulses off wave crests and measuring the time those pulses take to come back, instruments called altimeters aboard satellites can measure wave height—the taller the waves, the faster the signal returns. Other satellite instruments monitor changes in the reflectivity of the ocean surface, which is reduced by wind-generated ripples, to estimate the speed of ocean winds. But interpreting the data is difficult: Different satellites can give different estimates of wind speed, for instance.</div>
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To minimize those discrepancies, physical oceanographer Ian Young at the University of Melbourne in Australia, and mathematician Agustinus Ribal at Hasanuddin University in Makassar, Indonesia, compared information from different satellites and calibrated their data against an independent data set collected by a <a href="https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #37588a; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: none;">global network of buoys</a> floating in the ocean. When they were done, two trends stood out: Since 1985, average ocean wind speeds in most of the world have increased between 1 centimeter and 2 centimeters per second per year, leading to increases in wave height in many places.</div>
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In the Southern Ocean, the trends are particularly strong. For instance, although average wind speeds there have increased by 2 centimeters per second each year, the speed of the top 10% fastest winds has increased by 5 centimeters per second per year. And although average wave heights there have increased by just 0.3 centimeters per year, the top 10% highest has grown by an average of 1 centimeter per year—<a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aav9527" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #37588a; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: none;">a growth of 30 centimeters since 1985</a>, they report today in <cite style="box-sizing: inherit;">Science</cite>.</div>
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The trends could be bad news for coastal communities, which face serious risks from sea level rise and extreme storm events, Young says. If oceanic winds are stronger and waves are taller, storms could be far more damaging.</div>
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Young and Ribal have done a good job of cross-checking and double-checking data from the three different types of satellite instrument, says Ole Johan Aarnes at the University of Bergen in Norway. But, he adds, it might be “optimistic” to think that the data now contain no errors. Confirming the trends will likely require more work, he believes.</div>
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The new paper doesn’t say definitively why wave height and wind speed is changing, although Young suspects a link with climate change. Ruggiero thinks that makes sense: He points out that a recent study in <cite style="box-sizing: inherit;">Nature Communications</cite> suggests higher global temperatures related to climate change are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08066-0" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #37588a; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: none;">driving an expansion of the tropics</a>—and an increase in wind speed there. “These are the secondary effects of climate change, not the obvious ones like sea level rise,” Young says. “This is where a lot of the research emphasis is now being placed.”</div>
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<a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/ocean-s-tallest-waves-are-getting-taller">https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/ocean-s-tallest-waves-are-getting-taller</a></div>
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</article>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-91797004890982115852019-04-21T17:06:00.004-05:002019-04-21T17:06:58.112-05:00WaPo: It’s been exceptionally warm in Greenland lately and ice is melting a month early<img class="" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Oj9iMHDdchCFf9Uqr6RDONxBFuA=/800x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/FTRVC2RDXRBVXFVOWNFCMAOIWA.png" sizes="(min-width: 768px) 50vw, 100vw" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Oj9iMHDdchCFf9Uqr6RDONxBFuA=/800x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/FTRVC2RDXRBVXFVOWNFCMAOIWA.png" srcset="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/RcvBs7_Y1enLGZNPSKr5tFTHCAg=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/FTRVC2RDXRBVXFVOWNFCMAOIWA.png 480w,https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Oj9iMHDdchCFf9Uqr6RDONxBFuA=/800x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/FTRVC2RDXRBVXFVOWNFCMAOIWA.png 800w" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0px; max-width: 800px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br />
<span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px auto 0px; max-width: 800px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Warmth over Greenland is highlighted in a daily analysis from mid-April. (ClimateReanalyzer.org)</i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">by Matthew Cappucci, The Capital Weather Gang, <i>The Washington Post</i>, April 18, 2019</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">You might have heard about the exceptional heat this year in the northern hemisphere and around the world. March <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/march-2019-was-second-hottest-on-record-for-globe" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">was just declared</a> the second warmest on record globally</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Records have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/02/alaskas-historically-warm-march-ended-with-even-more-records/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">shattered in Alaska</a>. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/25/hottest-february-day-temperature-united-kingdom-soars-winter-record/?utm_term=.34b7e63512f0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Scotland hit 70 degrees</a> in February. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/25/hottest-february-day-temperature-united-kingdom-soars-winter-record/?utm_term=.34b7e63512f0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Winter warmth</a> has torched the U.K., The Netherlands, and Sweden as well — coming on the heels of Europe’s warmest year on record. But they’re not alone.</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="3" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Greenland is baking, too. In fact, its summer melt season has already begun — more than a month ahead of schedule.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Marco Tedesco is a professor in atmospheric sciences at the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. He monitors behavior of the cryosphere<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> — </i>the part of earth’s water system that is frozen. He says melting of this extent shouldn’t begin until May. “The first melt event was detected on April 7,” he wrote in email.</span></div>
<div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal " data-elm-loc="5" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; outline: 0px; padding: 12px 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="P5ZIJAPPYFEY5LOK6SD6R5JKII" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a><img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/ZpYYDakzOdd5DFXMxorJpbKJeyo=/1321x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/P5ZIJAPPYFEY5LOK6SD6R5JKII.png" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/FAaNeURI441Md5wedmzInlg8jcY=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/P5ZIJAPPYFEY5LOK6SD6R5JKII.png" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/P5ZIJAPPYFEY5LOK6SD6R5JKII.png" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/ZpYYDakzOdd5DFXMxorJpbKJeyo=/1321x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/P5ZIJAPPYFEY5LOK6SD6R5JKII.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Greenland melt extent in 2019, compared to normal. (National Snow and Ice Data Center)</span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Air temperature anomalies were up to more than 20 degrees Celsius [36 Fahrenheit] above the mean,” noted Tedesco. His team has been eyeing Greenland’s southeast coast as ground zero for the early-season thaw. “Surface air temperature jumped to 41 degrees on April 2, up from minus-11,” he said. Temperatures dropped below freezing briefly before again soaring into the 30s, where the mercury has held steady for most of the past week.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">What’s been sling-shotting this balmy air northward?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“The subtropical jet stream,” wrote Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Mass. It’s teamed up with the polar jet to “transport warm, moist air from near Florida northward into southern Greenland,” she explained. “Locking this pattern in place has been a strong ridge — a northward bulge in the jet stream — just east of Greenland.”</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="9" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A lack of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean north of Scandinavia gave this bubble of warmth a bit of an extra boost, intensifying its warm conveyor belt into Greenland.</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="10" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going forward, “[t]hese types of patterns are expected to occur more frequently,” Francis wrote, citing climate change as the culprit. “Arctic ice cover continues to dwindle and temperatures there soar.”</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="11" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But <i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">advection </i>— the transport of air, in this case warm, from somewhere else — is just half the battle. Adding insult to injury is a shortage of cloud cover in recent weeks over Greenland. The high pressure “block” that Francis described has also helped clear the skies, allowing more sunshine to pour in and heat the ground further.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="GZEAVGAKGFFFTAVR622X6AZ6GA" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a><img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/mAIF_oxqqR_PB5qgEglsCN7d_r8=/957x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GZEAVGAKGFFFTAVR622X6AZ6GA.png" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Na0pbxYCq7tJ-4WEtwlvUyy-ZJg=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GZEAVGAKGFFFTAVR622X6AZ6GA.png" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GZEAVGAKGFFFTAVR622X6AZ6GA.png" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/mAIF_oxqqR_PB5qgEglsCN7d_r8=/957x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GZEAVGAKGFFFTAVR622X6AZ6GA.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; margin: 0px; max-width: 957px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px auto 0px; max-width: 957px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A reanalysis showing precipitation also points to where the source of warmth in Greenland is coming from. (ClimateReanalyzer.org)</span></i></span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="13" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Incoming solar radiation reached a value similar to ones we observed in August last year,” wrote Tedesco. That heats the ground even <i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">more. </i>It’s a vicious cycle of <i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">positive feedback, </i>indicating just how unstable — and delicate — the Arctic is.</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="14" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“I call this ‘melting cannibalism,” explained Tedesco. And it could get even worse, as it preconditions the ice to be more vulnerable to melting in the summer.</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="15" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When snow/ice on the ground melt, they form small pools of water. That changes how <i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">reflective </i>the surface is — a measure scientists refer to as “albedo.” Snow and ice have a very high albedo, meaning it reflects most of the incoming light that hits it. That’s why you have to wear sunglasses when you go skiing. Water, on the other hand, is a lot less shiny, which allows it to absorb more heat, a cyclical process on a local level and a driver of additional warming on the global level.</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="16" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">According to the <a href="http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">National Snow and Ice Data Center</a>, the rate of melting this early in the year has been off the charts. Satellite imagery shows several patches of extremely early melt along the coast.</span></div>
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Kuskokwim River ice went out at Bethel on April 13, by a week the earliest of record. Four of the past six years have been in the top ten earliest. Overall, Kusko ice is breaking about a week earlier than 90 years ago. <a class="PrettyLink hashtag customisable" data-query-source="hashtag_click" data-scribe="element:hashtag" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/akwx?src=hash" rel="tag" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">#</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">akwx</span></a> <a class="PrettyLink profile customisable h-card" data-mentioned-user-id="2937632239" data-scribe="element:mention" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/Climatologist49" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">@</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">Climatologist49</span></a> <a class="PrettyLink profile customisable h-card" data-mentioned-user-id="32684002" data-scribe="element:mention" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/MarkSpringer" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">@</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">MarkSpringer</span></a> <a class="PrettyLink profile customisable h-card" data-mentioned-user-id="469298678" data-scribe="element:mention" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/klshall" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">@</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">klshall</span></a> <a class="PrettyLink profile customisable h-card" data-mentioned-user-id="2482931264" data-scribe="element:mention" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/KYUKNews" style="background-color: transparent; color: #2b7bb9; outline: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"><span class="PrettyLink-prefix">@</span><span class="PrettyLink-value">KYUKNews</span></a></div>
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<span class="TweetInfo-heartStat" data-scribe="element:heart_count" style="margin-left: 3px;">19</span></a></div>
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<a class="u-linkBlend u-url customisable-highlight long-permalink" data-datetime="2019-04-15T21:51:00+0000" data-scribe="element:full_timestamp" href="https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1117908203289767936" style="background-color: transparent; font-weight: inherit; outline: 0px; text-decoration: inherit;">4:51 PM - Apr 15, 2019</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And it’s not just Greenland. Much of the Arctic has been baking. Ice melt in Alaska has set rivers gushing more than a month before normal in some places, setting records along the Kuskokwim River in Bethel, and triggering the earliest ice breakup along the Tanana River in Nenana.</span></div>
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/18/its-been-exceptionally-warm-greenland-lately-ice-is-melting-month-early/?utm_term=.51d46e4cc030"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/18/its-been-exceptionally-warm-greenland-lately-ice-is-melting-month-early/</span></a>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-39721558989798735992019-04-21T15:56:00.000-05:002019-04-21T15:56:14.250-05:00Paul Douglas, WaPo: As oceans rapidly warm because of climate change, an urgent need to improve hurricane forecasts<h2 class="deck" data-pb-field="subheadlines.basic" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #5a5a5a; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 28px; font-weight: 200; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 0px 0px 20px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Better hurricane forecasts require near-real-time, deep-ocean monitoring</h2>
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<img class="" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Iy_GVuJOkgdw84EG_AKMzYRN55M=/1429x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HJVHHAVX2ZAU5NMXDJBI3ZSMAQ.jpg" sizes="(min-width: 768px) 50vw, 100vw" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Iy_GVuJOkgdw84EG_AKMzYRN55M=/1429x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HJVHHAVX2ZAU5NMXDJBI3ZSMAQ.jpg" srcset="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/clsNYSP9_R6zhBbQC8OJ-ZUhFSo=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HJVHHAVX2ZAU5NMXDJBI3ZSMAQ.jpg 480w,https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Iy_GVuJOkgdw84EG_AKMzYRN55M=/1429x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/HJVHHAVX2ZAU5NMXDJBI3ZSMAQ.jpg 1429w" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; cursor: zoom-in; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><i>Hurricane Michael on the morning of Oct. 10, 2018. (AerisWeather)</i></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></div>
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by Paul Douglas, <i>The Washington Post</i>, April 16, 2019</div>
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In the past two hurricane seasons, record-breaking floods have engulfed our coastal zones in the Carolinas and Texas as storms have drawn more water and grown larger from rapidly warming oceans.</div>
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As the climate system continues to warm, we will need better prediction systems so we can prepare vulnerable coastal areas for bigger, wetter and faster-strengthening hurricanes. Hurricane season is just six weeks away.</div>
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/04/hurricane-outlook-forecast-colorado-state/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Hurricane season is approaching. Here’s the first 2019 outlook from scientists.</a>]</i></div>
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Recent studies confirm that warming of the world’s oceans is taking place faster than previously estimated — as much as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/climate/ocean-warming-climate-change.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">40 percent faster</a> than the United Nations estimated in 2015.</div>
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Research confirms that roughly <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-heat-does-the-ocean-trap-robots-find-out/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">93 percent of the warming</a> from man-made greenhouse gases is going into the world’s oceans. About two-thirds is absorbed in the ocean’s top 700 meters, noted Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth. This is the layer from which hurricanes draw much of their energy.</div>
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In a warmer, more volatile world, accurate weather predictions will require near-real-time data, not only from the atmosphere, but from regional variations in ocean warming, according to Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.</div>
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“The extra heat from increasing gases from carbon dioxide doesn’t necessarily go into the ocean uniformly,” Trenberth said in a recent interview. “There are increasing indications that the regional manifestations of the ocean heat content — where those spots are warmer — actually matters for subsequent climate over the next six months or so.”</div>
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Hurricane Harvey radar loop</div>
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<span aria-hidden="true" class="powa-shot-click powa-shot-click-play fa fa-play powa-shot-play-btn-icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-family: FontAwesome; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: auto; text-shadow: none !important; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div>
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<div class="powa-blurb-wrap powa-blurb inline-video-caption franklin-light" id="blurb-powa-29841e5c-f198-4156-81f8-963a8a92e07f-0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #111111; margin: 10px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; font-family: Georgia; font-size: calc(16.4px + 0.175vw); line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="powa-tease franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Long radar loop of Hurricane Harvey making landfall in southeast Texas in August 2017.</span> <span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(AerisWeather)</span></div>
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<span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;">Future improvements in hurricane track and intensity forecasts may rely on increasingly coupled models that combine measurements of the atmosphere with regional differences in surface and upper ocean heat content, in something close to real time.</span></span></div>
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<span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; font-family: Georgia; font-size: calc(16.4px + 0.175vw); line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;">“This is an important area of research, and I don’t think it’s being adequately capitalized at the current time,” Trenberth said, pointing out Hurricane Harvey tapped record levels of ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico before dumping more than 60 inches of rain near Houston.</span></span></div>
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<span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/08/due-to-climate-change-hurricanes-are-raining-harder-and-may-be-growing-stronger-faster/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Because of climate change, hurricanes are raining harder and may be growing stronger more quickly</a>]</i></div>
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<div class="posttv-video-embed powa powa-processed small" data-ad-bar="1" data-aspect-ratio="0.5625" data-autoinit="native-hls" data-autoplay-fallback="muted" data-autorun="true" data-blurb="1" data-custom-ctrls="true" data-decorated="true" data-device-class="deskweb" data-init-on-scroll="true" data-live="0" data-mpulse="true" data-nth-video-on-page="1" data-object-id="5c88466746e0fb000bdce369" data-org="wapo" data-player-type="posttv-embed" data-playthrough="1" data-preload="metadata" data-uuid="a2f96015-efec-4044-a5ba-fd748cbcf282" data-viewable-fired="true" data-youtube-id="" id="powa-a2f96015-efec-4044-a5ba-fd748cbcf282-1" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0); border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; height: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 368.368px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
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Hurricane Florence radar loop</div>
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<span aria-hidden="true" class="powa-shot-click powa-shot-click-play fa fa-play powa-shot-play-btn-icon" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; font-family: FontAwesome; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: auto; text-shadow: none !important; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div>
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<div class="powa-blurb-wrap powa-blurb inline-video-caption franklin-light" id="blurb-powa-a2f96015-efec-4044-a5ba-fd748cbcf282-1" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 10px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; font-family: Georgia; font-size: calc(16.4px + 0.175vw); line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span class="powa-tease franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Satellite and radar loop of Hurricane Florence making landfall in southeast North Carolina in September 2018.</span> <span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(AerisWeather)</span></div>
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Similarly, in 2018, Hurricane Florence tapped a regional hot spot of water, where natural variability combined with a warming climate, to fuel a vast swath of historic rains across the Carolinas.</div>
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But warm temperatures at the sea surface, by themselves, were insufficient to fuel the storm.</div>
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<span class="powa-byline franklin-light" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div>
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“If there’s not the ocean heat content below the surface to help sustain that, then that high sea-surface temperature will peter out fairly quickly,” Trenberth said. “This is one of the characteristics of Florence and Harvey. Although they took a lot of heat out of the ocean, there was still plenty more heat there, prolonging the lifetime of the storm.”</div>
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<i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/11/oceans-are-warming-faster-than-we-thought-scientists-suggest-we-brace-impact/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">The oceans are warming faster than we thought, and scientists suggest we brace for impact</a>]</i></div>
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Like vast atmospheric washing machines, both Harvey and Florence were able to recirculate a continuous supply of deep-ocean warmth, jet fuel for hurricanes, back up to the surface — prolonging intensity and extreme rainfall rates, with catastrophic results.</div>
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<img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/wNHyyCKK0PXHq95x5H_sOiZ0pMw=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YPL54CKWMRHNJGISZ5ZJ6JITNU.gif" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/cr43sa--3E57fTNXr4c5DmKQ0AI=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YPL54CKWMRHNJGISZ5ZJ6JITNU.gif" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YPL54CKWMRHNJGISZ5ZJ6JITNU.gif" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/wNHyyCKK0PXHq95x5H_sOiZ0pMw=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YPL54CKWMRHNJGISZ5ZJ6JITNU.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hurricane Irma is seen in a visible satellite image from Sept. 5, 2017. (NOAA/AerisWeather)</span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></div>
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The longer lifetime and sustained intensity driven by higher ocean content are what energizes what’s known as their eyewall replacement cycles. The eyewall is the zone of towering thunderstorms surrounding the hurricane’s calm center. It’s here that you find the hurricane’s strongest winds.</div>
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During an extreme hurricane, spiral arm bands wrap around the center so intensely that the storm forms a new (outer) eyewall, cutting off moisture flow to the old eyewall, which begins to collapse. The result: The storm temporarily weakens in strength (as Katrina did just at landfall in 2005) but expands in size.</div>
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Given high ocean heat content, the hurricane can reintensify during eyewall replacement. This happened with Hurricane Irma five times, and Trenberth believes these same dynamics were witnessed with Florence. This is how storms grow bigger, more intense and longer-lived, fueled by a steady supply of <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/oceanic/ocean-heat-content" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ocean heat</a>.</div>
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Stating the obvious: For weather forecasters to have any chance of accurately predicting hurricane eyewall replacement cycles, which affects storm size, intensity and severity of the subsequent storm surge, access to reliable temperature data in the upper oceans may be key.</div>
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<img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/_xELa5AIQnwna-LfsPP0y6LZiA8=/1429x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/IMVM67BSEBEHBDAOOVDHXMCTNU.jpg" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/bUjkJYDhsBpmyrCvSz7EfZsxCuc=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/IMVM67BSEBEHBDAOOVDHXMCTNU.jpg" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/IMVM67BSEBEHBDAOOVDHXMCTNU.jpg" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/_xELa5AIQnwna-LfsPP0y6LZiA8=/1429x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/IMVM67BSEBEHBDAOOVDHXMCTNU.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Hurricane Katrina’s cold-water wake. Sea-surface temperature anomalies on Aug. 30, 2005. (NASA Scientific Visualization Studio)</span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;">Hurricanes are nature’s quirky, automatic pressure-relief valves, transporting excess heat and moisture away from the tropics toward the poles, leaving behind trails of cooler water. But current weather models can’t capture real-time changes in surface and deep-ocean heating.</span></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<article class="paywall" itemprop="articleBody" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal " data-elm-loc="0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 0px; border-image: initial; border-left: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px !important; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 12px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: calc(16.4px + 0.175vw);">Trenberth speculates the latest high-resolution weather models over-intensify tropical systems that assume a constant sea-surface temperature, not fully taking into account their cold wake. Accurate prediction of hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and intensification may require near-real-time, high-resolution data from the upper oceans and Gulf of Mexico.</span></div>
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“The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is probably leading in terms of doing coupled weather forecasts,” Trenberth admitted, adding that the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction “has been playing with this and making some progress.”</div>
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So, the challenge remains: How can we accurately predict the future when we can’t get an accurate snapshot of what’s happening right now, both atmospheric and oceanic?</div>
<div data-elm-loc="27" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: calc(16.4px + 0.175vw); line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Tz10SzPCBof6p-UwBLX58T-3KxM=/1428x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CDQZUWUBZREPVPF2U3BE2X5DC4.jpg" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/R9O9LwyeJp85QlB0-RHqLoZxVgc=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CDQZUWUBZREPVPF2U3BE2X5DC4.jpg" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CDQZUWUBZREPVPF2U3BE2X5DC4.jpg" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/Tz10SzPCBof6p-UwBLX58T-3KxM=/1428x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CDQZUWUBZREPVPF2U3BE2X5DC4.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Left: An Argo float. Right: An ALAMO float, a cousin of the Argo float, diving. (Coastal Studies Institute, left; Robert Todd, WHOI)</span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;">Data from the Argo network of nearly 4,000 drifting floats in the world’s oceans could be programmed to provide deep-sea temperature data more frequently, close to real time during hurricane scenarios. Right now, Argo data updates roughly every 10 days.</span></span><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="30" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
“In places like the gulf and East Coast, they could program those to come up and down more frequently,” Trenberth speculated. “The result would be a more comprehensive understanding of upper-ocean water temperature profiles, giving forecasters the ability to gauge whether a hurricane’s cold wake may be resupplied with additional warming at the surface, thus prolonging the storm.”</div>
<div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal " data-elm-loc="31" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; outline: 0px; padding: 12px 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="V5YTOFGRUBF4JBRK74VM6QT4IY" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1955a5; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a><img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/w-0qoYd7K30ePgL_MW8-IWW_Tn4=/1427x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/V5YTOFGRUBF4JBRK74VM6QT4IY.jpg" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/M7GTt6oYPMSV3tUCHnOasQe-Wqc=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/V5YTOFGRUBF4JBRK74VM6QT4IY.jpg" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/V5YTOFGRUBF4JBRK74VM6QT4IY.jpg" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/w-0qoYd7K30ePgL_MW8-IWW_Tn4=/1427x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/V5YTOFGRUBF4JBRK74VM6QT4IY.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Global Argo array. (Argo Information Center)</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="32" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Accurate prediction of increasingly powerful (and wet) hurricanes requires increasingly sophisticated and coupled models combining atmospheric measurements with regional hot spots of unusually warm and deep-ocean water. Hurricanes don’t follow identical tracks, because the next hurricane can “feel” where a previous hurricane has been. Trenberth’s take: “Until we properly put those kinds of factors into our models, we’re not going to quite get those tracks right.”</div>
<div data-elm-loc="33" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
But regional hot spots of unusually warm, deep water may have implications beyond fueling hurricane strengthening and rainfall prediction. Nontropical cyclones, the bread-and-butter low-pressure systems that parade across our daily weather maps, also may be affected, especially the redevelopment of East Coast storms, feeding on tropical warmth and moisture.</div>
<div data-elm-loc="34" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
“This can lead to some intensification, but it’s also apt to lead to development out ahead of the storm, so it affects the actual track of the storm,” Trenberth said. “It may also lead to some increase in the size of the storm.”</div>
<div class="inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal " data-elm-loc="35" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: FranklinPro, FranklinITCProLight, "Franklin Gothic Medium", "Franklin Gothic", "ITC Franklin Gothic", "Apple SD Gothic Neo", "Myriad Set Pro", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica Neue Light", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 18.8889px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; outline: 0px; padding: 12px 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="OBC7D4KAOZAMRGX2VOG4I3Z2GY" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1955a5; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a><img class="_3-to-2 hi-res-lazy courtesy-of-the-lazy-loader" data-hi-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/9VapjS_Y2RdPeSg4Q_cKG9Eoddg=/1428x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/OBC7D4KAOZAMRGX2VOG4I3Z2GY.jpg" data-low-res-src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/AA9Rc76sG8OMBTdTNQNXVeuRXuo=/480x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/OBC7D4KAOZAMRGX2VOG4I3Z2GY.jpg" data-raw-src="https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/OBC7D4KAOZAMRGX2VOG4I3Z2GY.jpg" data-threshold="480" src="https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/9VapjS_Y2RdPeSg4Q_cKG9Eoddg=/1428x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/OBC7D4KAOZAMRGX2VOG4I3Z2GY.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: zoom-in; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 654.887px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span class="pb-caption" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #6e6e6e; display: block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.25em; margin: 4px 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The aftermath of Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach, Fla., on Feb. 24.</span></div>
<div data-elm-loc="36" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Weather data and <a href="https://www.aerisweather.com/support/docs/aeris-maps/reference/map-layers/#all:tropical" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">high-resolution mapping</a> are more accessible; weather model physics continues to advance and improve, but Hurricanes Harvey, Florence and Michael are reminders that the most accurate forecasts of track, intensity and rainfall require extensive, real-time analyses of ocean heat content, and not just at the surface. With rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, warming oceans fueling increasingly potent hurricanes makes real-time, deep-ocean data a necessity, not a luxury.</div>
<div data-elm-loc="37" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Tropical researchers are making great strides, but Hurricane Michael’s remarkable, last-minute intensification into a catastrophic 155-mph monster, just 2 mph shy of Category 5 strength, before leveling parts of the Florida Panhandle in October, underscores the urgency of removing biases in coupled air-sea models. Such advancements will provide meteorologists the tools necessary to improve tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts — and save lives.</div>
<div data-elm-loc="38" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 18.8889px; line-height: calc(1.5em + 0.3333vw); margin-bottom: 16px; margin-top: 4px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="https://www.pauldouglasweather.com/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Paul Douglas</i></a><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> is co-author of “</i><a href="https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B01M0RC2FK&preview=newtab&linkCode=kpe&ref_=cm_sw_r_kb_dp_hQGTCbR87P95B&tag=thewaspos09-20" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Caring for Creation: The Evangelical’s Guide to Climate Change and a Healthy Environment</i></a><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">” and co-founder and senior meteorologist at </i><a href="https://www.aerisweather.com/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); box-sizing: border-box; color: #2c6cb4; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">AerisWeather</i></a><i style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">, located in the Twin Cities of Minnesota.</i></div>
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Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-67337990804001590922019-04-21T15:27:00.001-05:002019-04-21T15:27:59.699-05:00Greenhouse Gas Emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost may be 12 times higher than thought, scientists say<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">'This needs to be taken more seriously than it is right now,’ says author of new study</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<img alt="Melting permafrost in Alaska caused by rising global temperatures." height="449" src="https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w968h681" width="640" /><br />
<amp-img alt="Melting permafrost in Alaska caused by rising global temperatures." class="i-amphtml-layout-responsive i-amphtml-layout-size-defined i-amphtml-element i-amphtml-layout" height="1667" i-amphtml-layout="responsive" layout="responsive" sizes="calc(100%)" src="https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w968h681" srcset="https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w968 968w, https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w375 375w, https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w768 768w" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: block; overflow: hidden !important; position: relative; width: 968px;" title="Melting permafrost in Alaska caused by rising global temperatures." width="2223"><img alt="Melting permafrost in Alaska caused by rising global temperatures." class="i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content" decoding="async" sizes="calc(100%)" src="https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w968h681" srcset="https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w968 968w, https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w375 375w, https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2019/04/17/14/melting-permafrost.jpg?w768 768w" style="border: none !important; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 0px; left: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: auto; max-height: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-height: 100%; min-width: 100%; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 0px;" title="Melting permafrost in Alaska caused by rising global temperatures." /></amp-img><br />
<div class="caption-wrap" style="background: rgb(247, 247, 247); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 10px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<figcaption class="caption" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Melting permafrost in Alaska caused by rising global temperatures. <span class="copyright" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">(Andrew Burton/Getty Images )</span></i></span></figcaption></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">by Chiara Giordano, <i>The Independent</i>, April 20, 2019</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #741b47; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">READERS: here is the Barrow, Alaska, measuring site for CO2:</span><br />
<span style="color: #741b47; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=fi"><span style="color: #741b47;">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=fi</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/emissions" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/emissions" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Emissions</a> from thawing Arctic <a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/permafrost" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/permafrost" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">permafrost</a> may be 12 times higher than previously thought, <a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">scientists</a> have discovered.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Permafrost is a mix of soil, rock or sediment that has been frozen for at least two years which is mostly found in the uppermost areas where temperatures are rising more quickly than the rest of the world.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When it thaws because of <a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/GlobalWarming" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/GlobalWarming" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">global warming</a>, it releases large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, causing temperatures to rise and creating a perpetual cycle where more permafrost melts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/nitrous-oxide" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/nitrous-oxide" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Nitrous oxide</a>, a third greenhouse gas nearly 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide, stays in the atmosphere for an average of 114 years, according to the <a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/environmental-protection-agency" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/environmental-protection-agency" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Environmental Protection Agency</a> (EPA).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It has “conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions,” according to a fresh <a class="body-link" data-vars-event-id="c6" data-vars-item-name="BL-8874456-https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/4257/2019/#section5" href="https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/4257/2019/#section5" rel="nofollow" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">study published</a> in the <i>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</i> journal.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However the research team behind the study, led by Harvard University scientists, has found that nitrous oxide emissions are 12 times higher than previously thought and therefore more of a threat.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The group used a small plane with a probe on its nose to measure greenhouse gases over 120 square miles of thawing permafrost in the North Slope of Alaska.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They found that nitrous oxide emissions reached what was previously thought to be the expected yearly limit within just one month in August 2013.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Nitrous oxide also poses a second threat because “up in the stratosphere, sunlight and oxygen team up to convert the gas into nitrogen oxides, which eat at the ozone,” Harvard University said in a statement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Jordan Wilkerson, one of the authors of the study, said: “Much smaller increases in nitrous oxide would entail the same kind of climate change that a large plume of CO2 would cause.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“This is widespread, pretty high emissions.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">He called for further research on the greenhouse gases, especially nitrous oxide, adding: “This needs to be taken more seriously than it is right now.”</span></div>
<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-greenhouse-gases-emissions-arctic-alaska-a8874456.html"><span style="color: black; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-greenhouse-gases-emissions-arctic-alaska-a8874456.html</span></a>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-16821106942866243972019-04-02T22:08:00.000-05:002019-04-02T22:08:18.968-05:00Ice-cliff failure via retrogressive slumping doi.org/10.1130/G45880.1<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Geology</i>, (2019) ; <a href="https://doi.org/10.1130/G45880.1" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1130/G45880.1</a></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2e32;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Ice-cliff failure via retrogressive slumping</span></span><br />
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Byron R. Parizek</a><a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">, </a></div>
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Knut Christianson, </a></div>
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Richard B. Alley, </a></div>
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Denis Voytenko, </a></div>
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Irena Vaňková, </a></div>
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Timothy H. Dixon, </a></div>
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<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ryan T. Walker, and </a></div>
<div class="al-author-name" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a class="linked-name" href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="border: 0px; color: #00436d; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">David M. Holland</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Abstract</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Retrogressive slumping could accelerate sea-level rise if ice-sheet retreat generates ice cliffs much taller than observed today. The tallest ice cliffs, which extend roughly 100 m above sea level, calve only after ice-flow processes thin the ice to near flotation. Above some ice-cliff height limit, the stress state in ice will satisfy the material-failure criterion, resulting in faster brittle failure. New terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland, suggest that taller sub-aerial cliffs are prone to failure by slumping, unloading submarine ice to allow buoyancy-driven full-thickness calving. Full</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">–</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Stokes diagnostic modeling shows that the threshold cliff height for slumping is likely slightly above 100 m in many cases and roughly twice that (145–285 m) in mechanically competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.</span></div>
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<a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/569567/ice-cliff-failure-via-retrogressive-slumping"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/569567/ice-cliff-failure-via-retrogressive-slumping</span></a>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-31014194833390790132019-02-16T16:58:00.000-06:002019-02-16T16:58:17.324-06:00Chris Mooney, WaPo: Earth Is 'Missing' at Least 20 Ft of Sea Level Rise. Antarctica Could Be The Time Bomb<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="main article image" height="259" src="https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2019-02/processed/accumulated_antarctica_change_nasa_1024.jpg" width="640" /></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">by Chris Mooney, <i>The Washington Post</i>, February 12, 2019</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Some 115,000 years ago, </span><em style="background-color: white;">Homo sapiens</em><span style="background-color: white;"> were still living in bands of hunter gatherers, largely confined to Africa. We still shared the globe with the Neanderthals, although it's not clear we had met them yet.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And though these various hominids didn't know it, the Earth was coming to the end of a major warm period. It was one that's quite close to our current climate, but with one major discrepancy - seas at the time were 20 to 30 feet (6 to 9 metres) higher.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">During this ancient period, sometimes called <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2015/11/28/oceans/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">the Eemian</a>, the oceans were <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6322/276" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">about as warm as they are today</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And last month, intriguing new research emerged suggesting that Northern Hemisphere glaciers have already retreated just as far as they did in the Eemian, driven by dramatic warming in Arctic regions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The finding arose when a team of researchers working on Baffin Island, in northeastern Canada, <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/these-arctic-landscapes-have-been-hidden-for-40-000-years" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">sampled the remains</a> of ancient plants that had emerged from beneath fast-retreating mountain glaciers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And they found that the plants were very old indeed, and had probably last grown in these spots some 115,000 years ago.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">That's the last time the areas were actually not covered by ice, the scientists believe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"It's very hard to come up with any other explanation, except that at least in that one area where we're working ... the last century is as warm as any century in the last 115,000 years," said Gifford Miller, a geologist at the University of Colorado in Boulder who led the research on Baffin Island.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But if Miller is right, there's a big problem. We have geological records of sea levels from the Eemian. And the oceans, scientists believe, were <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6244/aaa4019/F5.large.jpg" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">20 to 30 feet </a>(6 to 9 metres) <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6244/aaa4019/F5.large.jpg" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">higher</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Some extra water likely came from Greenland, whose ice currently contains over 20 feet (6 metres) of potential sea level rise. But it couldn't have been just Greenland, because that entire ice sheet <a href="http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/climatechange/glacial_interglacial/eemian/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">did not melt</a> at the time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">That's why researchers also suspect a collapse of the most vulnerable part of Antarctica, the West Antarctic ice sheet. This region could easily supply another 10 feet (3 metres) of sea level rise, or more.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"There's no way to get tens of meters of sea level rise without getting tens of meters of sea level rise from Antarctica," said Rob DeConto, an Antarctic expert at the University of Massachusetts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Trying to understand how Antarctica will fall</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Scientists are now intensely debating precisely which processes could have played out then — and how soon they'll play out again. After all, West Antarctica has already been shown, once again, to be beginning a retreat.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Some researchers, including DeConto, think they have found a key process - called marine ice cliff collapse - that can release a lot of sea level rise from West Antarctica in a hurry.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But they're being challenged by another group, whose members suspect the changes in the past were slow - and will be again.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To understand the dispute, consider the vulnerable setting of West Antarctica itself.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Essentially, it's an enormous block of ice mostly submerged in very cold water. Its glaciers sit up against the ocean in all directions, and toward the center of the ice sheet, the seafloor slopes rapidly downward, even as the surface of the ice sheet itself grows much thicker, as much as two miles thick in total.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As much as a mile and a half of that ice rests below the sea level, but there is still plenty of ice above it, too.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So if the gateway glaciers start to move backward - particularly a <a href="https://thwaitesglacier.org/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">glacier named Thwaites</a>, by far the largest of them - the ocean would quickly have access to much thicker ice.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The idea is that during the Eemian, this whole area was not a block of ice at all, but an unnamed sea. Somehow, the ocean got in, toppling the outer glacial defenses, and gradually setting all of West Antarctica afloat and on course to melting.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">DeConto, with his colleague David Pollard, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature17145" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">built a model</a> that looked to the Eemian, and another ancient warm period called the Pliocene, to try to understand how this could happen.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In particular, they <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/30/antarctic-loss-could-double-expected-sea-level-rise-by-2100-scientists-say/" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">included two processes</a> that can remove glaciers. One, dubbed 'marine ice sheet instability,' describes a situation in which a partially submerged glacier gets deeper and thicker as you move toward its center.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In this configuration, warm water can cause a glacier to move backward and downhill, exposing ever thicker ice to the ocean - and thicker ice flows outward faster.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So the loss feeds upon itself.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Marine ice sheet instability is probably underway already in West Antarctica, but in the model, it wasn't enough. DeConto and Pollard also added another process that they say is currently playing out in Greenland, at a large <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/04/11/scientists-just-uncovered-some-troubling-news-about-greenlands-most-enormous-glacier/?utm_term=.b4a84c6a13ee" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">glacier called Jakobshavn</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Jakobshavn is moving backward down an undersea hill slope, just in the way that it is feared the much larger Thwaites will drift. But Jakobshavn is also doing something else. It is constantly breaking off thick pieces at its front, almost like a loaf of bread, dropping slice after slice.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">That's because Jakobshavn no longer has an ice shelf, a floating extension that used to grow out over the ocean at the front of the glacier and stabilize it. The shelf collapsed as Greenland warmed in the past two decades.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As a result, Jakobshavn now presents a steep vertical front to the sea. Most of the glacier's ice is under the water, but more than 100 meters (330 feet) extend above it - and for DeConto and Pollard, that's the problem. That's too much to be sustained.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ice is not steel. It breaks. And breaks. And breaks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This additional process, called 'marine ice cliff collapse,' causes an utter disaster if you apply it to Thwaites. If Thwaites someday loses its own ice shelf and exposes a vertical front to the ocean, you would have ice cliffs hundreds of meters above the surface of the water.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">DeConto and Pollard say that such cliffs would continually fall into the sea. And when they added this computation, it not only recreated Eemian sea level rise, it greatly increased their projection of how much ice Antarctica could yield in this century - more than three feet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Since there are other drivers of sea level rise, like Greenland, this meant that we could see as much as six feet in total in this century, roughly double prior projections. And in the next century, the ice loss would get even worse.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"What we pointed out was, if the kind of calving that we see in Greenland today were to start turning on in analogous settings in Antarctica, then Antarctica has way thicker ice, it's a way bigger ice sheet, the consequences would be potentially really monumental for sea level rise," DeConto said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Moreover, the process, he argues, is essential to understanding the past - and thus how we could replicate it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"We cannot recreate six meters of sea level rise early in the Eemian without accounting for some brittle fracture in the ice sheet model," said DeConto.</span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A massive debate over marine ice cliffs</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Tamsin Edwards is not convinced. A glaciologist at Kings College London, she is lead author - with a number of other Antarctic experts - of a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-0901-4" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">study published Wednesday in <em>Nature</em></a><em> </em>(the same journal that published DeConto and Pollard in 2016) that disputes their model, in great detail.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Using a statistical technique to examine the results, Edwards and her collaborators find that the toppling of ice cliffs is not necessary to reproduce past warm periods after all.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They also present lower sea level rise possibilities from Antarctica in this century. If they're right, the worst case is back down to about 40 centimeters, or a little over a foot, rather than three to four feet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"Things may not be as absolutely terrible as that last study predicted," Edwards said. "But they're still bad."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is a new science, she said, and without more modeling it's unclear how ice cliffs will ultimately affect sea level rise.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But then what happened in the Eemian? Edwards thinks it just took a long time to lose West Antarctica. That it wasn't fast. After all, the entire geologic period was thousands of years long.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"We're an impatient lot, humans, and the ice sheets don't respond in a decade, they're slow beasts," she said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">DeConto says he's learned something from the critique.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"The Edwards study does illustrate the need for more in-depth statistics than we originally applied to our 2016 model output, but the models are evolving rapidly and they have already changed considerably since 2016," he said in a written statement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But he's not backing down on marine ice cliffs. The new critique, DeConto said, implies that "these processes aren't important for future sea level rise. And I think to me, that's kind of a dangerous message."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">He certainly has his allies. Richard Alley, a well known glaciologist at Penn State University who has published with DeConto and Pollard, wrote in an email that "cliff retreat is not some strange and unexpected physical process; it is happening now in some places, has happened in the past, and is expected wherever sufficiently high temperatures occur in ocean or air around ice flowing into the ocean."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Eemian - but worse?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There's one important thing to consider - the Eemian occurred without humans emitting lots of greenhouse gases.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Atmospheric carbon dioxide was far lower than it is today. The event was instead driven by changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun, leading to more sunlight falling on the northern hemisphere.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The big difference, this time around, is that humans are heating things up far faster than what is believed to have happened in the geologic past.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And that makes a key difference, said Ted Scambos, an Antarctic researcher who is leading the US side of an international multimillion dollar <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/30/unprecedented-u-s-british-project-launches-to-study-the-worlds-most-dangerous-glacier/?utm_term=.08337c94033d" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">mission to study Thwaites Glacier</a>, and who is a senior researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"The current pace of climate change is very fast," Scambos said, and the rate of warming might cause glaciers to behave differently than they did in the past.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Accordingly, Scambos says he sees the current debate as fruitful - "it's the discussion that needs to happen" - but that it doesn't lessen his worry about the fate of Thwaites Glacier if it retreats far enough.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">"There's no model that says the glacier won't accelerate if it gets into those conditions," said Scambos. "It just has to."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Humans were nowhere near the Antarctic in the Eemian - and we have never, in the modern period, seen a glacier as big as Thwaites retreat. It's possible something is going to happen that we don't have any precedent or predictions for.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Just last week, for instance, scientists <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/giant-void-identified-under-antarctica-reveals-a-monumental-hidden-ice-retreat" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(220, 220, 220); text-decoration-line: none;">reported a large cavity</a> opening beneath one part of the glacier - something they said models could not have predicted.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There is a massive stake involved now in at least trying to figure out what could happen - before it actually does. It will help determine whether humans, now organized and industrialized and masters of fossil fuels, are poised to drive a repeat of our own geological history.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">2019 © <em>The Washington Post</em></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/earth-s-climate-s-now-like-115-000-years-ago-when-the-sea-was-much-higher"><span style="color: black; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.sciencealert.com/earth-s-climate-s-now-like-115-000-years-ago-when-the-sea-was-much-higher</span></a></div>
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Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-29902827814265982672019-02-15T17:55:00.002-06:002019-02-15T17:55:28.335-06:00FloodList: New Scale to Characterize Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric River Storms<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A team of researchers led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego has created a scale to characterize the strength and impacts of “atmospheric rivers” - long narrow bands of atmospheric water vapor pushed along by strong winds. They are prevalent over the Pacific Ocean and can deliver to the Western United States much of its precipitation during just a few individual winter storms.</span></div>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_24982" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; clear: both; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 730px;"><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; clear: left; color: #999999; float: left; font-style: italic; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-top: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img height="425" src="http://floodlist.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Atmospheric-river-hits-California-1024x683.jpg" width="640" /></span></figcaption><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Atmospheric river hits California. Credit: Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory/ VIIRS satellite</span></figcaption></figure><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #575757; margin-bottom: 20px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They are the source of most of the West Coast’s heaviest rains and floods, and are a main contributor to water supply. For example, roughly, 80 percent of levee breaches in California’s Central Valley are associated with land-falling atmospheric rivers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The scale, described in the February 2019 <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1" rel="noopener" style="background: transparent; color: #cc3300; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society</em></a>, assigns five categories to atmospheric rivers (ARs) using as criteria the amount of water vapor they carry and their duration in a given location. The intention of the scale is to describe a range of scenarios that can prove beneficial or hazardous based on the strength of atmospheric rivers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The scale was developed by F. Martin Ralph, director of the Center for Western Water and Weather Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps, in collaboration with Jonathan Rutz from the National Weather Service and several other experts. It ranks atmospheric rivers from 1 to 5 and creates the categories “weak,” “moderate,” “strong,” “extreme,” and “exceptional.” It uses amounts of water vapor within an atmospheric river as its basis and a period of 24-48 hours as its standard measurement of duration. When an AR lasts in an area for less than 24 hours, it is demoted by one category, but if it lingers for more than 48 hours, it is promoted. This approach is based on research showing that a combination of strong water vapor transport with long duration over a location, is what causes the greatest impacts. Unlike the hurricane scale, recently criticized for not representing adequately the impacts of slow-moving lower-category hurricanes, the AR scale builds in duration as a fundamental factor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img height="76" src="http://floodlist.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Key-describing-atmospheric-river-intensity-categories.jpg" width="640" /></span></div>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_24981" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; clear: both; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 720px;"><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Key describing atmospheric river intensity categories. Credit: CW3E/Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.</span></figcaption></figure><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #575757; margin-bottom: 20px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The scale ranks ARs as follows:</span></div>
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<li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 5px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">AR Cat 1 (Weak): Primarily beneficial. For example, a February 23, 2017, AR hit California, lasted 24 hours at the coast, and produced modest rainfall.</span></li>
<li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 5px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">AR Cat 2 (Moderate): Mostly beneficial, but also somewhat hazardous. An atmospheric river on November 19-20, 2016, hit Northern California, lasted 42 hours at the coast, and produced several inches of rain that helped replenish low reservoirs after a drought.</span></li>
<li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 5px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">AR Cat 3 (Strong): Balance of beneficial and hazardous. An atmospheric river on October 14-15, 2016, lasted 36 hours at the coast, produced 5-10 inches of rain that helped refill reservoirs after a drought, but also caused some rivers to rise to just below flood stage.</span></li>
<li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 5px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">AR Cat 4 (Extreme): Mostly hazardous, but also beneficial. For example, an atmospheric river on January 8-9, 2017, that persisted for 36 hours produced up to 14 inches of rain in the Sierra Nevada and caused at least a dozen rivers to reach flood stage.</span></li>
<li style="background: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: disc; margin: 5px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">AR Cat 5 (Exceptional): Primarily hazardous. For example, a Dec. 29 1996 to January 2, 1997, atmospheric river lasted over 100 hours at the Central California coast. The associated heavy precipitation and runoff caused more than $1 billion in damages.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ralph is considered a leading authority on atmospheric rivers, which were officially defined by the American Meteorological Society in 2017. Researchers have only begun to study atmospheric rivers in depth in the past two decades building on earlier research into extra-tropical cyclone structure and precipitation, especially in the United Kingdom. In that time, they have also come to understand how these events frequently make the difference between flood and drought years in key coastal regions around the world such as California.</span></div>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" id="attachment_24980" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; clear: both; margin: 0px auto 24px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 720px;"><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #999999; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img height="545" src="http://floodlist.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/All-categories-of-atmopsheric-river-intensity-were-observed-during-a-2017-event.jpg" width="640" /></span></figcaption><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; color: #999999; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></figcaption><figcaption class="wp-caption-text" style="background: transparent; border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">All categories of atmospheric river intensity were observed during a 2017 event. Credit: CW3E/Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego</span></figcaption></figure><div style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; color: #575757; margin-bottom: 20px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ralph said that the scale could provide a crucial tool to officials with an operational need to assess flood potential in their jurisdictions before storms strike. Unlike other scales that focus primarily on damage potential, such as the Fujita scale for tornadoes or the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes, the atmospheric river scale accounts not only for storms that can prove hazardous, but also for storms that can provide benefits to water supply.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“The scale recognizes that weak ARs are often mostly beneficial because they can enhance water supply and snow pack, while stronger ARs can become mostly hazardous, for example if they strike an area with conditions that enhance vulnerability, such as burn scars, or already wet conditions,” say Ralph and co-authors in the paper appearing today in the February 2019 issue of the <em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,</em> “Extended durations can enhance impacts.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Coauthors of the paper include weather forecasters, such as meteorologist Jon Rutz and Chris Smallcomb of the National Weather Service (NWS).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“The concept of ARs has directly benefited NWS operations in the West through better scientific understanding, more accurate precipitation forecasts, and a better vehicle for communicating impacts to our partners,” said Rutz. “The AR scale is a significant step forward, providing forecasters with a tool to distinguish between primarily beneficial and primarily hazardous storms. I anticipate that this scale will be adopted and highly used.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Previous analysis has shown that on the West Coast, the Oregon coast receives the most atmospheric rivers in the “extreme” range (AR Cat 4), averaging about one per year. Washington receives extreme atmospheric rivers about every two years, the Bay Area about every three years and Los Angeles every 10 years. The 1996-1997 atmospheric river that caused the largest flood damages in California since 1950 would be categorized as an “exceptional” AR storm. The strongest atmospheric river storms hitting the Southern California coast annually, typically fall in the “moderate” to “strong” range (AR Cat 2-3).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When atmospheric river storms along the West Coast are predicted, the scale rankings will be updated and communicated via the CW3E website and Twitter handle. This new scale will add to data, seasonal outlooks and precipitation forecasts provided by the center as a resource to water managers, weather forecasters, emergency officials, policy makers, and others.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The researchers said that the atmospheric river scale is intended as a tool to increase situational awareness ahead of a major storm in a way that reflects conditions broadly in a region of roughly 50 km size. It is not intended to represent detailed conditions on smaller spatial scales where variable topography, land surface types, and vulnerabilities vary greatly and thus modulate storm impacts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“This scale enables improved awareness of the potential benefit versus hazard of a forecast AR,” said co-author Michael Anderson of the California Department of Water Resources. “It can serve as a focal point for discussion between water managers, emergency response personnel and the research community as these key water supply and flood inducing storms continue to evolve in a changing climate.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">“Forecasters in the western U.S. have been using the concept of ARs in their forecasting for a few years now, and many have been looking for a way to distinguish beneficial from hazardous AR storms,” said Rutz. “The scale was designed partly to meet this need, and it is anticipated that it will be used extensively.”</span></div>
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<em style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Source: University of California – San Diego</span></em></div>
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<span style="background: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://floodlist.com/america/usa/new-scale-to-characterize-strength-and-impacts-of-atmospheric-river-storms">http://floodlist.com/america/usa/new-scale-to-characterize-strength-and-impacts-of-atmospheric-river-storms</a></span></span></div>
Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-25846764626094564572019-02-15T17:42:00.000-06:002019-02-15T17:42:00.334-06:00L. A. Times: As lawsuits over climate change heat up, oil industry steps up spurious attacks on its critics<div class="full-width img-container aspect-ratio-no-aspect" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; height: 409.867px; object-fit: cover; width: 728.656px;">
<img alt="As lawsuits over climate change heat up, oil industry steps up attacks on its critics" class="full-width" src="https://www.latimes.com/resizer/ofIBWABSVE6uzWl6pVO0NEkKQ9c=/800x0/www.trbimg.com/img-5c6342a3/turbine/la-1550008991-m68wuqu37j-snap-image" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; height: 409.867px; object-fit: cover; vertical-align: middle; width: 728.656px;" /></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: benton;">The Deepwater Horizon oil rig, aflame in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. The rig's owner, BP, is one of more than 20 oil companies being sued over their alleged role in climate change. (Gerald Herbert / AP)</i><br />
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by Michael Hiltzik, <i>The Los Angeles Times</i>, February 12, 2019<br />
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The oil industry has been depicting itself lately as the target of a conspiracy by scientists, local government officials and climate change activists to make it look bad.</div>
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It would be odd to think that a conspiracy is necessary to punch holes in the fossil fuel companies’ public reputation, but here’s the argument presented by the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), one of the industry’s leading lobby organizations.</div>
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“In a highly-coordinated move,” the <a href="https://eidclimate.org/last-ditch-effort-sen-whitehouse-exxonknew-activists-try-to-revive-failing-climate-litigation-campaign/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">IPAA declares on its website</a>, “nearly 30 scientists, government officials and third-party organizations recently joined the fledgling climate litigation campaign.” The IPAA labeled this a “free-for-all” and quoted an industry newsletter calling the campaign “a carefully orchestrated effort by local governments in California and elsewhere to use state law to collect damages from companies producing and marketing fossil fuels.”</div>
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If you think this sounds like a Goliath pretending to be a David, you are right. The litigation campaign IPAA refers to is <a href="https://www.sheredling.com/climate-change-pr/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">a cluster of lawsuits</a> pioneered in 2017 by the California counties of San Mateo, Imperial Beach, Marin, and Santa Cruz, and the cities of Richmond, Oakland, and San Francisco, among other jurisdictions, against more than 20 oil and gas companies.</div>
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The plaintiffs assert that the companies freely promoted the use of their products even though they were aware of the products’ effect on global warming — information the industry allegedly suppressed for years. The municipalities are asking that the companies be forced to help pay for the damage wreaked by climate change, including drought, wildfires, sea level rise, and extremes of heat and precipitation. Since the filing of the California cases, similar lawsuits have been filed by Rhode Island, Washington’s King County (that is, Seattle), Baltimore, and New York City.</div>
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The oil companies succeeded in transferring the state lawsuits to federal court, where they expect to face less liability under the law. The plaintiffs’ argument that the cases belong back in state court is being heard by the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco.</div>
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What has the industry vibrating at the moment is a sheaf of <a href="https://www.sheredling.com/climate-change-pr-2/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">eight friend-of-the-court</a>, or <i>amicus</i>, briefs all filed on January 29, 2019, with the appellate court supporting the transfer back to state court. Among other parties, the briefs were filed by the California Assn. of Counties, the Natural Resources Defense Council, a group of six prominent oil company critics, and the National League of Cities.</div>
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To the industry, this looks like a cabal. In a blog post, the IPAA found something sinister in “the fact that all eight of the briefs were filed within hours of one another on a random January afternoon (i.e. there wasn’t a court-designated deadline).” Not only was that “reason enough to suspect some level of coordination took place,” the blog post observes, but “signing onto the <i>amicus</i> briefs were many of the activists and politicians who have played key roles in the broader campaign to take down the oil and natural gas industry for years.”</div>
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A couple of points are pertinent here. First of all, there was indeed a court-designated deadline for filing the briefs — January 29, the day they were filed. The <a href="https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/uploads/rules/frap.pdf" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">court’s procedural calendar</a> specifies that <i>amicus</i> briefs must be filed no later than seven days after the main brief of the party they’re supporting. The California <i>plaintiffs</i> filed their brief on January 22, seven days earlier. So much for the “coordination.”</div>
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Second, why should it be so odd that the supporters of the cities and counties are drawn from the community of fossil fuel critics? Who else?</div>
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Let’s examine some of the industry’s other points. Among the chief targets of its pushback are Naomi Oreskes and Geoffrey Supran of the Department of the History of Science at Harvard University, who filed one of the <i>amicus</i> briefs, in conjunction with four other scholars with interest in climate change science.</div>
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Oreskes and Supran were the authors of <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">a 2017 study</a> detailing the industry’s determined, decades-long effort to suppress scientific evidence of global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels, despite warnings by its own scientific researchers that the phenomenon was genuine, dangerous, and accelerating. </div>
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<a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-exxonmobil-20170822-story.html" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">We reported here on their study,</a> which focused on Exxon Mobil. They compared hundreds of Exxon Mobil's internal reports and peer-reviewed research papers with its advertising — especially paid "advertorials" the company placed in the op-ed section of the <i>New York Times</i> from 1972 through 2001. The authors concluded that Exxon Mobil had systematically "misled non-scientific audiences about climate science."</div>
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The IPAA blog post claims that the Oreskes-Supran study has been debunked, but that’s not so. Their <a href="https://eidclimate.org/expert-finds-no-scientific-support-study-claiming-exxon-misled-public-climate-change/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">statistical method was questioned</a> by another researcher, who was paid by Exxon Mobil. But the core of their findings wasn’t statistical but empirical. They compared internal company documents with the ad campaign and found them wildly divergent.</div>
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Oreskes, in an email, labeled the so-called debunking “the sort of expert-for-hire doubt-mongering” engaged in by the tobacco industry when it was fighting medical science over the dangers of smoking. That’s a topic she’s familiar with, having covered it in the 2010 book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B003RRXXO8/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">“Merchants of Doubt,”</a> co-written with Erik M. Conway.</div>
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It’s hardly surprising that the oil industry would be uneasy about the “fledgling climate litigation campaign.” The plaintiffs aim to use state laws to fix blame on the fossil fuel companies in ways that can’t be accomplished under federal environmental laws such as the Clean Air Act.</div>
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Indeed, federal law vests the states with primary responsibility for addressing air pollution, according to Victor Sher, the San Francisco attorney representing the counties and cities. “Cases involving false and deceptive marketing, over-promotion of products, campaigns to deceive the public — those are traditional state police power matters that the Clean Air Act doesn’t address at all.”</div>
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Federal Judge Vince Chhabria of San Francisco largely agreed last March, when he <a href="https://www.sheredling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-03-16-207-Order-Granting-Remand-4812-8763-1199-v.1.pdf" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">ordered the lawsuits returned to state court</a>. The oil companies appealed his order, which is why it’s now before the 9th Circuit bench.</div>
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The municipalities also are hoping to take advantage of California’s “public nuisance” doctrine, which holds that business can be held responsible for damage done by its products even if their usage was standard practice at the time.</div>
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The public nuisance argument was central to a lawsuit brought by California municipalities against lead paint manufacturers that concluded in 2017 with <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-lead-paint-ruling-20171115-story.html" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; line-height: 18px;" target="_blank">an order that the companies pay to clean up residual lead</a> in dwellings that could pose a health hazard to children in those homes.</div>
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There’s no question that the cities and counties face a long and arduous road to saddling the oil industry with the responsibility for climate change and the expense of addressing its impacts. The lead paint lawsuit lasted 17 years before the verdict was made final.</div>
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But there’s also no question that the industry did its best to hide what it knew about the prospects of global warming and its products’ role in it. The latest misleading attack on its critics shows, if nothing else, that it still hasn’t learned to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.</div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-climate-change-lawsuits-20190212-story.html">https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-climate-change-lawsuits-20190212-story.html</a></span></span></div>
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Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-21278569109928333212019-01-11T21:45:00.000-06:002019-01-11T21:45:07.229-06:00How fast are the oceans warming? doi: 10.1126/science.aav7619<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>Science</i>, <b>363</b>(<i>6423</i>) (11 Jan 2019) 128-129; doi: <span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-size: 15px;">10.1126/science.aav7619</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 40px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">How fast are the oceans warming?</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Zeke Hausfather, and Kevin Trenberth</span></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Abstract</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">Climate change from human activities mainly results from the energy imbalance in Earth's climate system caused by rising concentrations of heat-trapping gases. About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC). The ocean record of this imbalance is much less affected by internal variability and is thus better suited for detecting and attributing human influences (</span><em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">1</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">) than more commonly used surface temperature records. Recent observation-based estimates show rapid warming of Earth's oceans over the past few decades (see the figure) (</span><em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">1</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">, </span><em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">2</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">). This warming has contributed to increases in rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, the destruction of coral reefs, declining ocean oxygen levels, and declines in ice sheets; glaciers; and ice caps in the polar regions (</span><em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">3</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">, </span><em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">4</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 20px;">). Recent estimates of observed warming resemble those seen in models, indicating that models reliably project changes in OHC.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128.summary">http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128.summary</a></span></span></span>Tenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.com0