Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate, Nature Geosci., W. Han et al., (July 11, 2010)

Nature Geoscience, published online 11 July 2010; doi: 10.1038/ngeo901

Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate

Weiqing Han¹, Gerald A. Meehl², Balaji Rajagopalan³, John T. Fasullo², Aixue Hu², Jialin Lin⁴, William G. Large², Jih-wang Wang¹, Xiao-Wei Quan⁵, Laurie L. Trenary¹, Alan Wallcraft⁶, Toshiaki Shinoda⁶ and Stephen Yeager²

Abstract

Global sea level has risen during the past decades as a result of thermal expansion of the warming ocean and freshwater addition from melting continental ice¹. However, sea-level rise is not globally uniform^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. Regional sea levels can be affected by changes in atmospheric or oceanic circulation. As long-term observational records are scarce, regional changes in sea level in the Indian Ocean are poorly constrained. Yet estimates of future sea-level changes are essential for effective risk assessment². Here we combine in situ and satellite observations of Indian Ocean sea level with climate-model simulations, to identify a distinct spatial pattern of sea-level rise since the 1960s. We find that sea level has decreased substantially in the south tropical Indian Ocean whereas it has increased elsewhere. This pattern is driven by changing surface winds associated with a combined invigoration of the Indian Ocean Hadley and Walker cells, patterns of atmospheric overturning circulation in the north–south and east–west direction, respectively, which is partly attributable to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. We conclude that—if ongoing anthropogenic warming dominates natural variability—the pattern we detected is likely to persist and to increase the environmental stress on some coasts and islands in the Indian Ocean.

1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, UCB 311, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
2. Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
3. Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering/CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
4. Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
5. CIRES, University of Colorado/ESRL NOAA, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
6. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS 39529, USA

*Correspondence e-mail: whan@enso.colorado.edu

Link:  http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo901.html