S. Jevrejeva, A. Grinsted & J. C. Moore, GRL 36 (2009), Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (2009) L20706; doi: 10.1029/2009GL040216.

Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

S. Jevrejeva (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool, U.K.), A. Grinsted (Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark), J. C. Moore (Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland; Thule Institute, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China)

Received 23 July 2009; accepted 23 September 2009; published 28 October 2009. 

Abstract

The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.

Link to abstract:  http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040216.shtml