Peter Sinclair video: Paris Climate Agreement - A Good Start

by Peter Sinclair, Yale Climate Communications, February 10, 2016

I was at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco when news of the Paris agreement came through, so had the chance to collect fresh reactions from some of the best climate experts on the planet.

Generally, hopeful reactions, mixed with a warning.  And, Jeff Goodell of Rolling Stone on the difference between “should” and “shall.”

Link:  http://climatecrocks.com/2016/02/10/new-vid-scientists-on-the-paris-agreement/

Stephen Mulkey: The Paris accord marks the beginning of a new era of sustainability

“By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle.
By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.”
George Monbiot writing in The Guardian, 12 December 2015

“It’s a fraud really, a fake,… just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises.”
James Hansen, PhD, after the Paris accord, 12 December 2015

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by Stephen Mulkey, Environmental Century, December 13, 2015

Now that the Paris accord has been finalized and agreed to by 196 nations, I am struck that for the first time in the series of now 21 Conferences of the Parties there is genuine clarity among a strong majority of participating countries about the the perceived gravity of this crisis. The recently announced “high ambition coalition” includes the US as part of more than 100 countries who have agreed that more strenuous efforts are in order. Even Australia has joined. This group is calling for a 1.5 C guardrail rather than the arbitrary and clearly dangerous 2.0 C limit to mean global warming. In addition to identifying a more appropriate target, the group wants future agreements to be legally binding and that global climate policy be based on science.

Why we should be encouraged

It is clear that the Paris talks are a watershed event for humanity and our children’s future. Given that Copenhagen was such a dismal failure, it is appropriate to be joyous about this degree of clarity among the participants. Any accurate interpretation of history will mark the Paris summit as the most important world event in early December 2015. The summit conveners seem to understand that the science is crystal clear and that we must act. Either we drastically reduce emissions by the middle of this century or face catastrophic consequences over a millennial time scale. It is now clear to these negotiators that the damages to our biosphere are effectively permanent on any meaningful human time scale. You can’t negotiate with this reality.

Every day that we delay large scale climate mitigation we impose a penalty on future generations. There is no safe amount of additional greenhouse gas that can be added to the already huge burden of the atmospheric commons. Negotiators are assuming that the increase in emissions will slow and stabilize by the year 2030, but this means that an enormous amount of carbon will be emitted before we begin to decrease emissions.

There is evidence that worldwide emissions may have decreased in 2015, but this is surely a momentary dip. Secretary of State John Kerry has claimed that the US was an important contributor to this apparent decrease, but there can be no doubt that China’s increase in clean energy production and implementation of efficiency is largely responsible. We can be certain that this year is not the year that emissions will peak. Indeed, under the current commitments we are on a trajectory to warm between 3 and 4 C, which will have consequences over ensuing millennia and result in manifold challenges to civilization.

Implications for sustainability

One missing part of the discussion in Paris was the impact of climate change on earth’s ecosystems. I have been an ecologist for over 30 years, conducting my research on tropical systems in Central and South America.  I have also worked in forests in North America and in parts of Asia and Europe. During that time I have witnessed manifold changes to the earth’s natural systems and it is clear to me that climate change is increasingly overtaking human use of natural resources as the dominant factor affecting ecosystem form and function.

The wholesale restructuring of the marine ecosystem of the Gulf of Maine is a prime example of how rapid warming is amplifying the effects of overfishing to produce what is effectively becoming a novel, albeit rapidly changing ecosystem. There are numerous other examples of this dynamic process playing out in sensitive ecosystems around the world. Much of what we have considered to be natural, no longer is, and most of what we hope to preserve will need to be adaptively managed as it transitions to something new.

The good news from Paris for ecosystems is that the accord explicitly endorses the UNFCCC program for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Destruction (REDD). Any expert who has attempted to quantify the carbon balance of forests will agree that implementing REDD will require broad scale proactive adaptive management. This simply means  that for the first time in history we will be required to tend our garden with the intention of sustainability.

If we are willing to seriously engage in sustainable management of forest resources to achieve “negative emissions” the profession of forest ecologist will take on a powerful new mission. In addition to implementing adaptive forest management, measuring, verifying, and certifying REDD activities will be a central skill of these professionals. The same logic can be applied to management of agricultural lands for enhanced carbon sequestration (e.g., Mulkey et al. 2008). Sustainability science is the field of research and teaching that provides such a comprehensive approach. Obviously higher education, and especially community colleges, will need to build new programs to train these professionals.

Additional good news comes in the form of recurring mandatory reporting of emissions reductions and efforts to achieve and improve on 2 C. The agreement targets 1.5 C as desirable. Each country agreeing to the accord is required to participate in reporting and review at five-year intervals. The US Congress cannot derail this, although presumably a president could ignore the requirement.

Avoiding mandatory reductions and including mandatory reporting in the agreement was Obama’s primary strategy for achieving success in Paris. Mandatory reductions would require action by a hostile US Congress. Apparently Obama spent considerable time and political capital to achieve consensus among the parties.

The reporting requirement also means that renewed efforts at energy efficiency will become important in order to achieve what the accord calls “a balance” to reduce overall emissions. If we fully examine the implications of developing broad scale energy efficiency, we are quickly led to the conclusion that sustainable adaptive management of energy and material processes is foundational to any such effort. The embodied carbon emissions in manufacturing, all aspects of the built environment, sales of goods and services, and transportation can be managed for efficiency through application of the principles of sustainability science. Again, higher education will have a clear mandate to supply these professionals as the market for energy management services grows.

Not enough soon enough

The bad news, as Monbiot and Hansen indicated in their statements above, is that the tenets of the Paris accord are much too weak to avoid catastrophe. Prior to the summit in Paris, 185 nations declared their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs in the figure above) to emissions reduction by 2030. If no other reductions are achieved, these commitments would result in a 3.5 C global mean temperature increase relative to preindustrial. Much more is needed.

There can be little doubt that we have passed a tipping point in the production of greenhouse gases from the earth’s biological systems. As warming accelerates ecosystem production of CO2, we will need to redouble our efforts to reduce human sources of emissions. Responding to these natural sources of positive feedback will require us to measure them so that efforts at emissions reductions are appropriate to the scale of the problem. Quantitative data are only now beginning to show trends, but it is clear that essentially all sources of natural emissions are increasing.

The most alarming evidence of such positive feedbacks comes from studies of forests and tundra. As ecologists have long suspected, recent data show that as forest respiration increases under increased nighttime temperatures, the Earth’s immense tropical forests will progressively lose their ability to store carbon. The data from the Arctic leave little room for doubt that the enormous stores of carbon in permafrost are increasingly being lost to the atmosphere. Modeling indicates that these emissions are accelerating. Similarly, it has recently been noted in the journal Science that there has been an alarming increase in the death of large trees worldwide. Some of this mortality is clearly related to climate change.

The Paris accord means that we have now entered the era of the end of fossil fuels. To be effective, I believe that we must also embark on an era of sustainable management of energy and resources. Whether or not energy companies acknowledge this reality is problematic. I predict that some companies will embrace the opportunity for transformation, while others will retrench in the mistaken belief that the world will not be able to shake its addiction to fossil fuels. 350.org and other environmental groups are now calling for redoubled efforts to stop exploration and mining of fossil fuels. Never again will any country or company be able to say that burning fossil fuels is consistent with a thriving future. The social license for business as usual by the fossil fuel industry has been revoked.

http://environmentalcentury.net/2015/12/13/the-paris-accord-marks-the-beginning-of-a-new-era-of-sustainability/

Joe Romm: In Historic Paris Climate Deal, World Unanimously Agrees To Not Burn Most Fossil Fuels

by Joe Romm, Climate Progress, December 12, 2015

In a literally world-changing deal that was almost unthinkable just a year ago, some two hundred leading nations unanimously embraced a plan that will leave most of the world’s fossil fuels unburned.

As part of a concerted effort to avoid catastrophic climate change, the world unanimously committed to an ongoing effort of increasingly deeper emissions reductions aimed at keeping total warming “to well below 2 °C [3.6 °F] above preindustrial levels.” The full text of this Paris Agreement goes even further, with the parties agreeing “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.”

Already, global coal use appears to be plateauing, and global oil use will likely follow suit in the next decade as countries ratchet up their CO2 targets.

To get an idea of how challenging these negotiations have been, imagine trying to get a substantive agreement on any major topic in the U.S. Senate if the requirement for success were unanimity! 

Tragically, conservatives in Congress are doing everything that they can to undermine this deal, which is humanity’s best chance to avoid decades if not centuries of needless suffering for billions of people.

The economic and environmental implications of this deal for Americans are staggering. In the near term, it will unlock an accelerating multi-trillion-dollar shift in capital investment away from carbon-intensive coal and oil, which were the cornerstone of the first industrial revolution, into clean technologies like solar, wind, LED lighting, advanced batteries, and electric cars. It means far less harmful carbon pollution will be emitted in the coming years.

The agreement “sends a very powerful message to the business and investment community that the age of fossil fuels is ending,” explained the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Alden Meyer. Thus, “continued investments in high-carbon assets conflicts with their fiduciary responsibility.”

The Paris Agreement means the world may avoid many of the most catastrophic impacts. That said, a quarter century of largely ignoring scientific warnings has left the world unable to stop a number of very dangerous impacts, including sea level rise, ocean acidification, extreme weather, and Dust-Bowlification.

“I’m optimistic within a pessimistic framework,” said David Doniger the Director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Climate & Clean Air Program. His words summed up how many of the people I spoke to feel here after two long weeks of negotiations.

At the same time, this deal is a vindication for the climate movement’s strategy to:

• mobilize a grassroots movements aimed at keeping carbon in the ground (as with Keystone XL);
• get institutions and others to disinvest in dirty energy, while shifting capital to clean energy; and
• push as hard as possible for a warming target below 2 °C

The pledges by 186 countries big and small, developed and developing, in the months leading up to the Paris conference are an enormous first step. But these intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) will need to be reviewed and ratched up every 5 years for the rest of the century to preserve a livable climate — and that review and ratchet is a key part of the deal.

Now begins the great race between accelerating clean energy price drops and deployment on the one hand, and accelerating climate impacts on the other hand. The challenge to keep warming below 2 °C — which requires essentially every country to have zero net fossil fuel emissions by century’s end — is enormous, as this chart from Climate Interactive makes clear:

As the graph shows, the INDCs flatten out global greenhouse gas emissions through 2030. Indeed, global CO2 emissions have plateaued the last two years, which suggests the multi-trillion-dollar global shift in investment from high-carbon growth to low-carbon has already begun. As the worlds’ nations deliver on their INDCs, and ratchet them up over time, this plateau may well get longer and longer — until it turns into a peak.

Change happens slow, until it happens fast. We have entered the fast phase.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/12/3731236/paris-deal-fossil-fuels/

Brendan DeMelle: Historic Paris Climate Agreement Should Spook Fossil Fuel Markets and Escalate Clean Tech Investment

by Brendan DeMelle, DeSmog blog, December 12, 2015

World leaders reached an historic agreement in Paris moments ago, capping off the COP21 climate talks with a unanimous deal among 195 countries to curb global warming pollution and hasten the clean energy transition. The gavel just fell on the Paris Agreement, and it's time to celebrate.

Is it enough to please everyone? No. Will people continue to suffer from climate-charged extreme weather events? Yes. But today is a welcome change from previous summit failures.

It’s a big deal whenever 195 countries agree on anything, and that’s exactly what’s happened here today. 195 nations, from the richest to the poorest, agreed to pave the road to the end of fossil fuels.

This agreement sends a strong signal to politicians and the markets that it’s time to immediately escalate the transition to renewable energy and end the reign of fossil fuels which have polluted not only the planet but also democracies the world over.

Let there be no doubt that unacceptable compromises were made here in Paris, and much work remains to strengthen this agreement on the critical issues of human rights, finance for countries that must adapt to the inevitable and ongoing impacts, and other critical issues.

Sea levels will continue to rise and the world must assist those climate refugees who have been and will be displaced by climate chaos. The poorest, most vulnerable nations must be adequately financed to protect their people.

As a result of this agreement, we can move from a sense of total failure towards guarded optimism that we’re on the right path.

This reminds me of the feeling I had on the night of Barack Obama’s victory in 2008. My wife and I hosted a party for friends to watch the results, and as we cheered Obama’s victory, I turned to my brother and said that it was fine to celebrate tonight, but tomorrow we had to wake up and start holding him accountable for all the promises he’d made during the campaign.

This Paris deal is no different.

Today, there will be celebration. But tomorrow, the hard work must begin to hold leaders accountable for the promises made here and to continue to strengthen this agreement because much was lost to compromise.

There are many more miles to travel to break free from fossil fuels entirely, and to ensure justice is done to hold those accountable for the damage they knowingly caused. Those such as ExxonMobil and the Koch brothers — who actively sowed doubt to confuse the public and bought off politicians to delay action — must be held to account.

That important work is already underway, and will need broad public pressure.

The historic agreement today in Paris sends the right signal to the world.

Keep your eyes peeled on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday morning to see what happens to the big oil, gas and coal stocks. Peabody Energy closed on Friday at a very weak $8.82 (NYSE: BTU), continuing a rapid decline over the past year. Here's the Peabody stock chart over the last year:



Blog Image credit: Shutterstock

http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/12/12/historic-climate-agreement-should-spook-fossil-fuel-markets-and-escalate-clean-tech-investment

DeSmog-UK Launches to Combat Climate Denial in Europe Ahead of Paris Climate Talks

by Brendan DeMelle, DeSmog UK, September 1, 2014

A welcome message from DeSmogBlog executive director Brendan DeMelle.

We’re pleased to introduce DeSmog UK, a brand new investigative journalism and research outlet dedicated to clearing the PR pollution that clouds climate science and exposing the individuals and organizations attacking solutions to global warming.

The newest addition to the international DeSmog network, DeSmog UK seeks to expose the same fossil fuel industry funded attacks on science and democracy that its colleagues at DeSmogBlog and DeSmog Canada investigate every day. 

DeSmog UK has appointed as Editor the intrepid British journalist Brendan Montague, who has spent the past three years examining climate denial and the origins of the think tanks and front groups that have waged war on climate science and policy solutions to global warming.

A small number of individuals and organizations have crafted a polluter-friendly echo chamber to confuse the public about the scientific consensus on global warming.

They hope to gain an outsized amount of influence over public policy debates on a range of environmental and public health priorities, most notably climate change and energy policy.

Their goal is simple: to delay action to curb global warming pollution and foster a clean energy future by creating doubt in the minds of the public. They use the same tactics — and many of the same PR firms and individuals — deployed by the tobacco industry in its decades-long campaign to protect cigarette profits and avoid accountability for killing millions of people.

Wherever the climate deniers and anti-science disinformers go, DeSmog will be right on their heels working to expose their spin and holding them accountable.

Although the UK government used to be respected for understanding the urgency of identifying policy solutions to combat global warming, the country’s leadership has shifted in recent years to an anti-science position that is leading Britain and much of Europe in the wrong direction on climate and energy policy.

Through original investigative journalism and crowd-powered deep research, DeSmog UK will expose the individuals and organizations responsible for delaying action on climate change in the UK.

With the international climate negotiations process stalled in dire straits, and the critical COP 21 meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change coming up in Paris in December 2015, there is an urgent need to clear up the denial campaign that has hindered progress toward climate policy solutions around the world.

The science is clear, the clock is ticking and yet the public debate on solutions remains polluted by industry-funded misinformation and propaganda.

DeSmog UK seeks to hold accountable those responsible for these attacks on science and democracy, clearing the way for informed public discourse and political action to avert runaway climate change.

You are invited to partner with us in this important endeavor — in fact, we’re counting on you — so let’s get started.

First, take a minute to follow us on Twitter and Facebook and sign up for our newsletter so you can stay up to speed on all of DeSmog UK’s activities.

Now let’s begin with an introductory series by DeSmog UK editor Brendan Montague.

Image credit: Kris Krug

http://desmog.uk/2014/08/31/desmog-uk-launched-combat-climate-denial-europe-ahead-paris-climate-talks