China to set absolute cap on CO2 emissions from 2016

by Kathy Chen and Stian Reklev, Reuters, June 3, 2014

BEIJING - China will set an absolute cap on its CO2 emissions from 2016, a senior government adviser said on Monday, a day after the United States announced new targets for its power sector, signalling a potential breakthrough in tough U.N. climate talks.

Progress in global climate negotiations has often been held back by a deep split between rich and poor nations, led by the United States and China, respectively, over who should step up their game to reduce emissions.

But the adviser's statement, coupled with the U.S. announcement, sparked optimism among observers hoping to see the decades-old deadlock broken. The steps come ahead of a global meet on climate change starting on Wednesday in Germany.

China, the world's biggest emitter, will set a total cap on its CO2 emissions when its next five-year plan comes into force in 2016, He Jiankun, chairman of China's Advisory Committee on Climate Change, told a conference in Beijing.

Carbon emissions in the coal-reliant economy are likely to continue to grow until 2030, but setting an absolute cap instead of pegging them to the level of economic growth means they will be more tightly regulated and not spiral out of control.

"The Chinese announcement marks potentially the most important turning point in the global scene on climate change for a decade," said Michael Grubb, a professor of international energy and climate policy at University College London.

It is not clear at what level the cap would be set, and a final number is unlikely to be released until China has worked out more details of the five-year plan, possibly sometime next year.

The announcement comes a day after the United States, the world's second-biggest emitter, for the first time announced plans to rein in carbon emissions from its power sector, a move the Obama administration hopes can inject ambition into the slow-moving international climate negotiations.

"The China-US one is a key trust relationship (in climate talks) and if they are rising above that it sends a very powerful signal to the rest of the world to get serious," said John Connor, CEO of Melbourne-based The Climate Institute.


TALKS IN BONN

Focus will now turn to Bonn in Germany, where negotiators from over 190 nations meet from Wednesday for the latest 10-day round of talks in a process meant to lead to a new global climate treaty in Paris in December 2015.

"Interesting hint from Beijing, although the key point will be where (the cap) is set. If ambitious and announced well in advance of Paris, it could be a game changer," said a spokesman for EU Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard.

China, often blamed by rich countries for holding back progress in U.N. talks on emissions due to its reluctance to take on a binding target, is stepping up efforts to clean up or shut down carbon-emitting sources such as coal-fired power plants, factories and vehicles, because they have also created a much-publicized pollution crisis that ends hundreds of thousands lives prematurely every year.

Despite the absolute cap on CO2, adviser He said China's greenhouse gas emissions would only peak in 2030, at around 11 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Its emissions currently stand at around 7-9.5 billion tonnes.

But He said that would depend on China achieving a real reduction in coal consumption from sometime around 2020 or 2025, and on the nation meeting its target of having 150-200 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity by 2030.

The share of non-fossil fuels in China's energy mix would reach 20 to 25 percent in 2030, He added. 

(Additional reporting by Michael Szabo in LONDON; Editing by Joseph Radford, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Ron Popeski and David Evans)

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL3N0OK1VH20140603?irpc=932

James Hrynyshyn: Carbon dioxide emissions hit new record

Carbon dioxide emissions hit new record

by James Hrynyshyn, "Class: M" blog, September 21, 2011

From Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions, published by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, comes some good news:

Even including the USA whose emissions in 2008-2010 are 11% more than in 1990, the industrialised countries have on average reduced greenhouse gas emissions by about 7.5% in the period 2008-2010, compared with 1990. Together they are well on course to achieve the [Kyoto] protocol, target of a collective average decrease in greenhouse gas emissions of 5.2% between 2008 and 2012 compared to the 1990 level.

Bet you didn't know the Kyoto Protocol was a success, even without the U.S.

But then there's the bad news:

Continuing growth in the developing nations and economic recovery in the industrialised countries drove the record-breaking 5.8% increase in global CO2 emissions to the all-time high of 33.0 billion tonnes, even though these have not returned to pre-recession levels in most industrialised countries. CO2 emissions went up in most of the major economies, led by China, USA, India and EU-27 with increases of 10%, 4%, 9% and 3%, respectively.

Whole dreary report, including stats like "Since 2003, CO2 emissions in China have doubled, and in India they have increased by 60%," is here.

http://scienceblogs.com/classm/2011/09/carbon_dioxide_emissions_hit_n.php

Steven J. Davis & Ken Caldeira, PNAS (2010), Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print March 8, 2010; doi: 10.1073/pnas.0906974107

Consumption-based accounting of CO₂ emissions

Steven J. Davis* and Ken Caldeira
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA 94305, U.S.A.

Abstract

CO₂ emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO₂ directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with the consumption of goods and services in each country. Consumption-based accounting of CO₂ emissions differs from traditional, production-based inventories because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involve CO₂ emissions. Here, using the latest available data, we present a global consumption-based CO₂ emissions inventory and calculations of associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 23% of global CO₂ emissions, or 6.2 gigatonnes CO₂, were traded internationally, primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries. In some wealthy countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, the United Kingdom, and France, >30% of consumption-based emissions were imported, with net imports to many Europeans of >4 tons CO₂ per person in 2004. Net import of emissions to the United States in the same year was somewhat less: 10.8% of total consumption-based emissions and 2.4 tons CO₂ per person. In contrast, 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported, on net, to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of CO₂

emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage. Sharing responsibility for emissions among producers and consumers could facilitate international agreement on global climate policy that is now hindered by concerns over the regional and historical inequity of emissions.

*Correspondence e-mail: sjdavis@carnegie.stanford.edu

Link:  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/23/0906974107.abstract