by Dana Nuccitelli, Skeptical Science, August 15, 2012
"The results indicate that the distributions of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures have significantly shifted towards higher values in the latter period compared to the earlier period in almost all s"
"...these changes have had the greatest impact on the extremes of the distribution and we conclude that the distribution of global daily temperatures has indeed become “more extreme” since the middle of the 20th century."
"we can state, with a high degree of , that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small."
"For July temperature in Moscow, we estimate that the local warming has increased the number of records expected in the past decade fivefold, which implies an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without warming."
"we estimate it is very likely ( level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude."
"Hansen claims that global warming is associated with increased in the US....His hypothesis is a complete and abject failure."
"Over the next several decades, the Western United States and the semi-arid from North Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent , with rain, when it does come, occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding."
"s like the United States have avoided prolonged s during the last 50 years due to natural variations, but might see persistent s in the next 20–50 years"
"There is medium that s will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased . This applies to s including...central North America."
Tamino on Variability
"The results indicate that the distributions of both daily maximum and minimum temperatures have significantly shifted towards higher values in the latter period compared to the earlier period in almost all s, whereas changes in variance are spatially heterogeneous and mostly less significant. However asymmetry appears to have decreased but is altered in such a way that it has become skewed towards the hotter part of the distribution."
More Mischaracterizations of Hansen et al.
"Turns out that A turned out to be correct"
"Cliff Mass gives the impression that there’s nothing to worry about because our “3-sigma” events — the real killers — will only be one degree hotter, quite ignoring the fact that we’ll get 10 times as many of them."
Probability - the Language of Science
"When a 3-sigma event happens, it’s a problem but we can deal with it and recover from it. When 10 (or more) times as many 3-sigma events happen … we have a problem.That means we’re already in trouble. The really bad news is that we’re already in trouble from just the warming we’ve already experienced, but it’s going to get worse because it’s going to get hotter. You think the 2011 Texas-Oklahoma heat wave was bad? You think this year’s corn-belt heat wave was bad? You think the 2010 Russian heat wave was very very bad? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet."