Science (27 April 2012), Vol. 336, No. 6080, pp.
455-458; doi: 10.1126/science.1212222
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000
Paul J. Durack1,2,3,4,*, Susan E. Wijffels1,3, and Richard J. Matear1,3
Abstract
Fundamental thermodynamics and climate
models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will
become wetter
in response to warming. Efforts to detect this
long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and
evaporation
remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity
patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water
cycle.
Our 50-year observed global surface salinity
changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present
robust evidence
of an intensified global water cycle at a rate
of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the
response projected
by current-generation climate models and
suggests that a substantial (16-24%) intensification of the global
water cycle
will occur in a future 2-3 °C warmer world.
1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research, General Post Office (GPO) Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
2Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
3Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, CSIRO, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
4Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Mail Code L-103, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
*Correspondence e-mail: pauldurack@llnl.gov
No comments:
Post a Comment