"Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise," by Thomas Jacob, John Wahr, W. Tad Pfeffer & Sean Swenson, Nature (February 8, 2012); doi: 10.1038/nature10847

Nature (online February 8, 2012); doi: 10.1038/nature10847

Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise

Thomas Jacob, John Wahr, W. Tad Pfeffer and Sean Swenson

Abstract

Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors to present-day global mean sea level rise^{1, 2, 3, 4}. Most previous global mass balance estimates for GICs rely on extrapolation of sparse mass balance measurements^{1, 2, 4} representing only a small fraction of the GIC area, leaving their overall contribution to sea level rise unclear. Here we show that GICs, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 ± 30 Gt yr⁻¹ from January 2003 to December 2010, contributing 0.41 ± 0.08 mm yr⁻¹ to sea level rise. Our results are based on a global, simultaneous inversion of monthly GRACE-derived satellite gravity fields, from which we calculate the mass change over all ice-covered regions greater in area than 100 km². The GIC rate for 2003–2010 is about 30% smaller than the previous mass balance estimate that most closely matches our study period². The high mountains of Asia, in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr⁻¹ for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr⁻¹ in previously published estimates^{2, 5}. For completeness, we also estimate that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, including their peripheral GICs, contributed 1.06 ± 0.19 mm yr⁻¹ to sea level rise over the same time period. The total contribution to sea level rise from all ice-covered regions is thus 1.48 ± 0.26 mm ⁻¹, which agrees well with independent estimates of sea level rise originating from land ice loss and other terrestrial sources⁶.