Climate Change: The Next Generation: Will both the Northwest and the Northeast Passages open in July 2011? Taking bets now

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Will both the Northwest and the Northeast Passages open in July 2011? Taking bets now

July 17, 2011

5 comments:

ccpo said...: Hi Tenney,

On July 5th I posted the following to A Perfect Storm Cometh, "I'll be very surprised if both passages are not open by the end of the month, and see a 50/50 chance they will be open in the next two weeks."

It's looking like we'll be very close to that 50% in that the NEP is looking navigable to any Arctic-rated ship, and probably any ship with escort.

The NWP jammed up just after I made my post. There has been some deterioration and a lot of cracks, but it looks like the ice is kinda jammed in there and break up. Even the ice at the western end, that had been floating to the open ocean reversed and jammed up against the ice pack where it has that near-90 degree bend.

The Arctic Oscillation has moved from a strong negative (warmer Arctic Ocean) to a little positive (cooler Arctic Ocean) which should help slow melt a little. However, that also tends to make it stormier, so that may be helping break up the NEP. There have been a lot of storms centered over that area and a lot of disintegration.

Two weeks would be the 19th, so I will do an update either tomorrow or the next day and see ifa solid prediction can be made for the NWP. NEP? After the clouds clear, we'll probably see an essentially open NEP, but lots of ice floating aboutcons.; July 18, 2011 at 12:45 PM
ccpo said...: Have you ever done this Tenney? Thought I'd track the ice through the Fram Straight for a while to get a sense of just how much, and how quickly, ice flows through there.

Cheers; July 18, 2011 at 2:03 PM
ccpo said...: Oops... let's try that again. Thought I'd try tracking ice through the Fram Straight.

http://aperfectstormcometh.blogspot.com/2011/07/tracking-arctic-sea-ice-loss-via-fram.html

Cheers,

ccpo; July 18, 2011 at 2:04 PM
Tenney Naumer said...: The whole problem with the Nares Strait is that it freezes up depending on the temperature of the water going in and out and the air temperature and the thickness of the ice at the north end and if the ice arches form, and since the ice arches have not formed the past few years, and the thickness of the multi-year ice is less now, it is hard to get a grasp of what is going on.

I remember a few years ago, the ice there was so thick that it took months and months for it to break up -- nothing was going through there.

But I never saw it freeze like that again.; July 18, 2011 at 2:16 PM
Tenney Naumer said...: Anyway, the Arctic sea ice is toast.

Worse, Greenland's ice sheet is melting like a snow cone at the ball park in July.

Nowadays, I mostly focus on looking at Greenland.; July 18, 2011 at 2:17 PM