Herders Say Weather Will Worsen
by Clyde E. GOULDEN, The New York Times, July 18, 2011
Clyde E. Goulden is the director of the Institute of Mongolian Biodiversity and Ecological Studies at the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Mongolian herders may not know the term “global climate change,” but almost all know that their weather is changing. If asked whether the weather will get better, stay the same or get worse, most of them will say the weather will get worse. Mongolian herders already face difficult seasons with winter temperatures down to minus 40 °C and strong, gusty cold spring winds. Summer may not offer much of a respite. The days alternate between cold nights and daytime heat waves or cold, windy, rainy days. Over the last 20 years, strong wind gusts have become more frequent and storms arrive with little warning. The herders love their lives, but many are afraid there may be no future in herding for their children.
In 2009 and 2010, my wife, Tuya, and I interviewed herders with a series of open-ended questions to learn of their perceptions of climate change in the steppe forest region of northern Mongolia. Mongolia has warmed almost 4 °F (2.14 °C) over the last 70 years. This summer and next, we are visiting many of the herders previously interviewed to confirm their perceptions and awareness of climate change in this part of the world.
In this write-up we will discuss some initial results. This summer we have interviewed 35 of the 100 families previously interviewed. Our approach has been to ask how today’s weather compares with their past experience. We approach this in two ways: We ask the same question twice (though rephrased) to check for consistency, and we compare this year’s responses with the answers from the previous year. Thus far herders have remained consistent in their responses about changed rains and increases in winds. In contrast, there is a great deal of variability in herder responses when asked about specific seasonal temperature changes (e.g., have the winters been colder or milder, or the summers warmer or cooler?). These responses will be compared with analytical results of meteorological data from each of the two study regions and with the conclusions from the experimental studies carried out by the University of Pennsylvania and National University of Mongolia researchers at Lake Hovsgol.
The initial surveys were based on an open-ended response by the herders to general questions; they could relate their perceptions and be as specific as they wanted to be. One observation that began to emerge from the first interviews was whether they felt the weather was more or less predictable than in the past. Almost 50% of the herders volunteered that the weather was more unpredictable. This year we have asked for an explicit response from all herders.
One older herder, Baatar, has lived in the same valley on the steppe for 61 years. With a family of four and almost 200 animals, he depends on his ability to predict weather to determine the best winter pasture and how much hay to collect for animals to supplement winter grazing. However, Baatar told us he can no longer predict the weather for the next season, or even for the next day. This ability remains highly critical for all winters but particularly for the harsh weather of a dzud year, when a herder like Baatar might lose many or all of his animals to a very icy winter. This is what climate change means here.
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