Georg Feulner & Stefan Rahmstorf, On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, GRL 37 (2010)

Link to entire paper here:  http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/feulner_rahmstorf_2010.pdf


Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (2010) L05707; doi: 10.1029/2010GL042710

On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth

Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf 

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract

The current exceptionally long minimum of solar activity has led to the suggestion that the Sun might experience a new grand minimum in the next decades, a prolonged period of low activity similar to the Maunder minimum in the late 17th century. The Maunder minimum is connected to the Little Ice Age, a time of markedly lower temperatures, in particular in the Northern hemisphere. Here we use a coupled climate model to explore the effect of a 21st-century grand minimum on future global temperatures, finding a moderate temperature offset of no more than −0.3 °C in the year 2100 relative to a scenario with solar activity similar to recent decades. This temperature decrease is much smaller than the warming expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.

Received 29 January 2010; accepted 5 February 2010; published 10 March 2010.

Citation: Feulner, G., and S. Rahmstorf (2010), On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05707, doi:10.1029/2010GL042710.


http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2010/2010GL042710.shtml