Arctic tipping points - US Navy's perspective
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| Dave Titley |
“The U.S. Navy is addressing a tipping point even more difficult to predict: human activity”
While the international scientific community pays increasing attention to the understanding and prediction of Arctic environmental tipping points and consequent abrupt climate change, the U.S. Navy is addressing a tipping point even more difficult to predict: human activity. With continued decline in summer sea ice, the Arctic has already seen a significant increase in activity, including destination shipping, adventure tourism, extended continental shelf (ECS) surveys and claims, and the consideration of Arctic change in national strategies and policies.
There are great uncertainties in the prediction of physical Arctic environmental tipping points due to the cascading effect of component uncertainties, incomplete understanding of physical processes, nonlinear feedback processes, and the relative contributions from anthropogenic, solar, and other causes. But it is even more difficult to predict a future tipping point in Arctic activity because of the vastly more complex factor affecting it: people. The future of fishing, resource extraction, trans-Arctic shipping, and security activity in the region remains an open question.
Thus, it is important for both Arctic and non-Arctic nations to cooperate in ways that build trust and confidence in an environment of openness and transparency. The U.S. Navy’s Arctic Roadmap and Strategic Objectives for the Arctic highlight this, focusing on the opportunities of cooperative partnerships that address the common strategic challenges associated with Arctic change.
Rear Admiral Titley was commissioned in 1980. While aboard USS Farragut from 1980-1983, Titley served as navigator, qualified as a surface warfare officer, and transferred to the Oceanography community the following year. Subsequent sea duty included tours as oceanographer aboard USS Belleau Wood 1985-1987, USS Carl Vinson in 1990, Carrier Group 6 1993-1995 and U.S. 7th Fleet 1998-2000. In 2009, Titley assumed duties as oceanographer and navigator of the Navy. His education includes a BSc in meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University, a MSc in meteorology and physical oceanography and a Ph.D in meteorology. In 2003-2004, Titley attended the MIT Seminar XXI on Foreign Politics, International Relations and National Interest. He was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society in 2009.
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