Don't blink, or you're gonna miss it!
Comments:
Anonymous said...
North EAST passage.
Is totally clear from AMSR-E images in the Bremen University site (www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html).
The Kara sea and Laptev sea (western Russia) are already nearly ice-free. On the other side, the Chukchi sea is already ice-free, but the Barents sea (Alaska) has yet a lot of ice.
The only obstacle to northeast navigation is the ice-filled East Siberian sea. Given the 2007-like current weather, this ice will melt in coming few weeks.
Respect to the NW passage, it seems (given the current long-lived cool anomaly here) that will be closed probably until middle or late August.
July 22, 2009, 12:39 a.m.
Nick Barnes said...
North-East. Viscount Melville Sound is still full of some pretty serious ice, whereas the sea around Severnaya Zemlya and along the East Siberian coast is a great big frappuccino. How are you going to measure it?
July 22, 2009, 7:15 a.m.
Nick, what do you think the best way to measure would be?
Nick Barnes said...
Well, CT and NSIDC both do daily maps (CT is concentration, NSIDC is extent). I suggest the first day with a clear route on both maps.
Anon at 12:39 mistyped "Barents" for "Beaufort".
Well, ok, Nick.
I usually have a daily peek at the Danish site for the envisat images. Here is today's (July 22, 2009), but the problem is that some of the pieces of this composite image can be as old as 3 days ago. But, it always seems especially good for looking at the region off the coast of northern Siberia (click on the image to enlarge). (These images are updated daily at this site: http://www.seaice.dk/iwicos/latest/):
But check out this -- that Northeast Passage is hangin' by a thread!
Then, of course, we have the Cryosphere Today from the Universities of Illinois and Colorado, but hey, they always seem very optimistic in their sea ice concentrations, but who am I? Here is their graphic from July 21st, 2009:
Brian Dodge said...
Northeast; August 10. Just a guess, but it looks to me like warm air is pushing from Siberia to Canada, melting the east side and keeping the Northwest passage cooler and ice packed. If the wind (weather) changes it could change things up quickly - most of the ice is now first year, thin, and responds to weather more than climate.
July 22, 2009, 11:47 p.m.
Dear B Buckner,
I forgot to thank you. Any and all compliments are most certainly welcome! Tenney (July 27)
Nick Barnes said...
The CT graphics usually seem to correspond well with MODIS images. Here's (see the real comments section for the link) the East Siberian coast, this morning. There's some cloud cover, but you can still see there's a lot of loose ice. This better photo (see the real comments section for the link) from yesterday shows the ice around the New Siberian Islands much better.
This will all clear. I give it two weeks.
July 23, 2009, 6:31 a.m.
Here is the 500-m resolution MODIS Rapidfire image link -- showing the Siberian coastline -- it gives a much better idea of the situation, IMO, than the graphs above that I posted (thanks, Nick!):
Gentlemen, a quick look at the latest graphics (23 July, see Danish site -- graphics updated daily) makes it appear as if it will be a close thing in the coming days.
-
Looking at this, there's a pretty clear coastal passage of the whole East Siberian Sea. Unfortunately, the view of the New Siberian Islands is obscured by heavy cloud. When they are clear of ice, the NE passage will be open.
Posts
7 comments:
North EAST passage.
Is totally clear from AMSR-E images in the Bremen University site(www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html).
The Kara sea and Laptev sea (westen Russia)are already nearly ice-free. On the other side , the Chukchi sea is already ice-free, but the Barents sea(Alaska )has yet a lot of ice.
The only obstacle to northeast navigation is the ice-filled East Siberian sea. Given the 2007-like current weather, this ice will melt in coming few weeks.
Respect to the NW passage, it seems(given the current long lived cool anomaly here) that will be closed probably until middle or late August.
North-East. Viscount Melville Sound is still full of some pretty serious ice, whereas the sea around Severnaya Zemlya and along the East Siberian coast is a great big frappuccino. How are you going to measure it?
Nick, what do you think the best way to measure would be?
Well, CT and NSIDC both do daily maps (CT is concentration, NSIDC is extent). I suggest the first day with a clear route on both maps.
Anon at 12:39 mistyped "Barents" for "Beaufort".
Northeast; August 10. Just a guess, but it looks to me like warm air is pushing from Siberia to Canada, melting the east side and keeping the Northwest passage cooler and ice packed. If the wind (weather) changes it could change things up quickly - most of the ice is now first year, thin, and responds to weather more than climate.
The CT graphics usually seem to correspond well with MODIS images. Here's the East Siberian coast, this morning. There's some cloud cover, but you can still see there's a lot of loose ice. This better photo from yesterday shows the ice around the New Siberian Islands much better.
This will all clear. I give it two weeks.
Looking at this, there's a pretty clear coastal passage of the whole East Siberian Sea. Unfortunately, the view of the New Siberian Islands is obscured by heavy cloud. When they are clear of ice, the NE passage will be open.
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