Climate projection animations of global surface temperatures and Arctic Sea ice extent through 2100 from Met Office Hadley Centre

Climate projections from Met Office Hadley Centre

Because we can’t know the future for certain, our climate change scientists use computer-based climate models to project plausible scenarios, or projections, for coming centuries.

It is important to be aware that projections from climate models are always subject to uncertainty because of limitations on our knowledge of how the climate system works and on the computing resources available. Different climate models can give different projections. More on using computer models (external page)

The projections are also based on emissions scenarios, such as the level of CO₂ emissions increasing or decreasing. Many different scenarios are used, based on estimates of economic and social growth, and this is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. But even if greenhouse gas emissions are substantially reduced, the long lifespan of CO₂ in the atmosphere means that we cannot avoid further climate change due to CO₂ already in the atmosphere.

Despite the uncertainties, all models show that the Earth will warm in the next century, with a consistent geographical pattern.

Climate change projections

The globes below show latest results from the Met Office’s climate change research. The data are based on a mid-range IPCC emissions scenario A1B.

Predicted temperature rise to 2100 (animation from 1870 through 2100)

PLEASE GO TO THIS LINK TO SEE THE ANIMATION, THEY ARE IN FLASH AND I CAN'T STEAL THEM TO POST HERE:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/projections/

Predicted sea-ice extent out to 2100 (animation from 1860 through 2100)

PLEASE GO TO THIS LINK TO SEE THE ANIMATION, THEY ARE IN FLASH AND I CAN'T STEAL THEM TO POST HERE:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/projections/

Some of the diagrams below are maps of differences between the current climate, conventionally defined as 1960–1990, and the climate of the end of the 21st century, taken to be 2070–2100. For most quantities, changes are shown both for the annual average and for each of the four seasons December–February (Winter), March–May (Spring), June–August (Summer) and September–November (Autumn). The other diagrams are time-series, showing changes which occur as time passes.