Blog Archive

Friday, September 19, 2014

Joe Romm: NOAA: With Hottest August On Record, 2014 Takes Aim At Hottest Year On Record

by Joe Romm, Climate Progress, September 18, 2014
Last month was the warmest August since records began being kept in 1880, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported Thursday. NOAA also projected out scenarios for the rest of the year making clear that 2014 is going to be one of the very hottest years on record — and possibly the hottest.
temperature percentiles
Land and sea surface temperature percentiles in August 2014. Hot spots in red.
As the map shows, the oceans were particularly warm. In fact, ocean warming blew more than one record out of the water:
The August global sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high departure from average not only beats the previous August record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F).
No millennial has experienced a below average temperature August, since, as NOAA notes, the last one occurred in 1976!
NOAA also reports that 2014 year-to-date temperatures currently rank as the third warmest on record:
But NOAA adds that of the years depicted in that chart, “The years 2013 and 2014 are the only years on this list not to begin during a mature El Niño event. The years 1998 and 2010, each of which became the warmest year on record at the time, ended the year in a strong La Niña event, as evidenced by the relative fading of global average temperature later in the year.”
But 2014 not only isn’t headed towards a La Niña, it may well end up with a modest El Niño. In any case, temperatures are not likely to fade as they did at the end of 1998 and 2010. That gives 2014 a chance at moving up to ultimately ending higher than the third warmest year on record.
Indeed, NOAA plots out several scenarios in the chart below whereby 2014 could become the hottest year on record (click to enlarge):

Stay tuned. Mother nature is just getting warmed up — thanks to human activity.

No comments: