Comments on Kulluk's current situation, lifted from neven's blog

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/01/shell-drill-spill.html#comments

From commenter "A-team":

Leave it at that? (Day one on the rocks in 30' surf?)

Back in 2000, after 14 years of non-use in Tuktoyaktuk, the Canadians hired a consulting firm to generate a glowing account of the Kullak's previous performance in Beaufort sea ice:

ftp://ftp2.chc.nrc.ca/CRTreports/PERD/Kulluk_00.pdf

Fascinating bit about the shackle breaking -- was it really newly purchased, is there really a neutron beam facility in Dutch Harbor to check it for cracks (or can you hardly get a cup of warm coffee there)? I've heard that the abrupt loss of tension brought the Aiveq broadside to 40' swells, causing a 50 degree roll and sea water into the engine exhaust/air intakes. That, not asphaltine in deteriorated diesel, caused all four fuel injectors to fail.

We'll have to take Shell's word on the accident -- they've already announced their investigative report won't be made public. Mum's the word too at privately held Edison Chouest Offshore, the nation's largest maritime transport company (over 200 vessels including the Nathan B Palmer). The billionaire Chouest brothers are the largest single donor to Louisianna politician Scalise, exceeding even the Kochs. Scalise has been pressing the Obama administration non-stop to open up more areas for oil and gas exploration.

It is tricky to calculate the degree of sway from the Coast Guard video. The camera was held steady but seemingly not gyroscopically stabled. As the helicopter circles around the wreck at varying distances, the horizon is not quite level. Thus it is difficult to compute the maximal angle or periodicity of sway. The 'survivor anchor' was deployed prior to ground -- though what effect if any it is having remains obscure.

While it is great that the Kulluk is upright for now, I don't believe the 24-gon at the bottom was ever designed to pivot 9902 metric tons of deadweight. The rig is not grounded on a sand or gravel beach but rather off a rocky headland, in 5-6 fathoms. You can see rocks sticking out on all sides in the photos and the nav chart that I have attached.

I think they may end up having to build a breakwater around the wreck or a rock causeway out to it. Either way, not going to be easy to pump the oil ballast. It will have to be replaced with sea water to keep it stable until it can be cut up. Pulling it loose to sink it at sea is very dicey until all the lube and diesel have been lifted out.

I've attached a largish photomontage including a shot of Kulluk in sea ice, along with Dr. Woodgate's map of coastal currents.

Posted by: A-Team | January 02, 2013 at 18:38

Shell fought off 50 separate lawsuits (and bought off 50 separate legislators???) to get their Beaufort permits ... let's see how that goes from here on out. Are the Chinese willing to pay $20 a gallon for fuel?

Below is what the operational length of day looks like at this latitude -- and what it means to grapple lines in the dark in heavy seas and high wind. I've attached also a photo of what the bottom looks like at the rocky headland on the west end of Ocean Bay beach. It's a miracle that the wreck is so close to the largest coast guard air base in Alaska.

They have no air assets that could be deployed to the Beaufort Sea (aka Gyre). If the coast guard cutter Alex Haley had fouled their port propeller launching a line to the Kulluk there, that becomes a serious accident in its own right in the real Arctic.

This article may interest people in terms of drilling the Beaufort Sea in moving multi-year pack ice:

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/44067367_Numerical_Simulation_of_the_Kulluk_in_Pack_Ice_Conditions

Posted by: A-Team | January 02, 2013 at 19:13

Here is what the underside of the rig looks like, the edge that will be rocking back and forth on the rocks for the rest of the winter. Note the rig is somewhat elliptical in shape -- I've not yet determined if the long axis is oriented parallel to shoreline. The fairleads penetrate the hull so that sea ice in the Beaufort does not mess up the 12 fixed anchors (which were not deployed here).

There are three listed endangered vertebrates whose designated critical habitat includes Sitkalidak Island -- Stellar sea lion, sea otter, Steller eider. It's not going to work having them oiled up. I could see haul-out and use of Partition Cove, especially behind low barrier. I wonder what they'll do about all the Kodiak bears in terms of salvage staging. Here's the link to American Land Conservancy projects there.

http://www.alcnet.org/projects/overview/alaska/sitkalidak

http://www.mxak.org/community/kulluk/kullukmore.html

Posted by: A-Team | January 02, 2013 at 19:40