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Friday, March 25, 2011

Skeptical Science: "A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions" (Recycled denialist misinformation and the scientific bases of its refutation)

A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions

Posted on 25 March 2011 by John Cook

If there's one thing global warming skeptics like to do, it's recycle. But alas, not "good for the environment" type recycling.  Instead, they dig up old climate myths taken from the scrapheap of scientific history, sometimes debunked decades ago in the peer-reviewed literature. They dust them off and jettison them back into cyberspace. Another form of recycling is the adoption of misinformation techniques used in other areas of science. The tobacco industry mastered the merchandising of doubt -- techniques that were readily adopted by climate skeptics.
Another misinformation technique originating from the creation/evolution debate is the "Gish Gallop," named after Duane Gish who in a debate spewed forth an endless torrent of talking points, rendering constructive debate impossible. You have to be crazy to attempt to answer all the points of a Gish Gallop. Crazy or Skeptical Science's own Dana "cyborg" Nuccitelli, who over just the last month tackled Gish Gallops from Lubos MotlJohn Christy and Gregg Thompson.
A new Powerpoint originating in Australia, "Reconsidering Climate Change," takes the Gish Gallop to new levels.  Over the past 4 years, we here at Skeptical Science have been gradually accumulating the many skeptic arguments that propagate through the blogosphere. Nearly all of these arguments have been singlehandedly crammed into a single Powerpoint presentation. I read most of the Powerpoint, dutifully noting all the arguments it raised, although I confess I wasn't able to get past the extended rant about how those convinced that humans were causing global warming were akin to Nazis. Sorry, but I have better things to do with my time than listen to that nonsense.
Nevertheless, the number of arguments used up to that point were extensive. Here is a list of them all as well as one-liner rebuttals (which link to much more detailed rebuttals, often featuring multiple levels of information):
Skeptic ArgumentsWhat the Science Says
"Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy"Several investigations have cleared scientists of any wrongdoing in the media-hyped email incident.
"It's freaking cold!"A local cold day has nothing to do with the long-term trend of increasing global temperatures.
"Record snowfall disproves global warming"Warming leads to increased evaporation and precipitation, which falls as increased snow in winter.
"There's no empirical evidence"There are multiple lines of direct observations that humans are causing global warming.
"CO2 limits will make little difference"
If every nation agrees to limit CO2 emissions, we can achieve significant cuts on a global scale.
"CO2 is not a pollutant"Excess CO2 emissions will lead to hotter conditions that will stress and even kill crops.
"CO2 was higher in the past"When CO2 was higher in the past, the sun was cooler.
"Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup"By breathing out, we are simply returning to the air the same CO2 that was there to begin with.
"Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas"Rising CO2 increases atmospheric water vapor, which makes global warming much worse.
"Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions"The natural cycle adds and removes CO2 to keep a balance; humans add extra CO2 without removing any.
"CO2 limits will harm the economy"
The benefits of a price on carbon outweigh the costs several times over.
"Greenhouse effect has been falsified"The greenhouse effect is standard physics and confirmed by observations.
"The IPCC consensus is phoney"Ironically, it's those who are mispresenting Hulme's paper that are the ones being misleading.
"Over 31,000 scientists signed the OISM Petition Project"The 'OISM petition' was signed by only a few climatologists.
"There is no consensus"97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.
"There's no tropospheric hot spot"We see a clear "short-term hot spot" - there's various evidence for a "long-term hot spot".
"Peer review process was corrupted"An Independent Review concluded that CRU's actions were normal and didn't threaten the integrity of peer review.
"The science isn't settled"That human CO2 is causing global warming is known with high certainty & confirmed by observations.
"CO2 has a short residence time"Excess CO2 from human emissions has a long residence time of over 100 years
"Hockey stick is broken"Recent studies agree that recent global temperatures are unprecedented in the last 1000 years.
"Medieval Warm Period was warmer"Globally averaged temperature now is higher than global temperature in medieval times.
"Greenland was green"Other parts of the earth got colder when Greenland got warmer.
"Climate's changed before"Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.
"It's a natural cycle"No known natural forcing fits the fingerprints of observed warming except anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
"It's the sun"In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions
"2009-2010 winter saw record cold spells"A cold day in Chicago in winter has nothing to do with the trend of global warming.
"Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009"Winter snow cover in 2008/2009 was average while the long-term trend in spring, summer, and annual snow cover is rapid decline.
"It's microsite influences"Microsite influences on temperature changes are minimal; good and bad sites show the same trend.
"It's Urban Heat Island effect"Urban and rural regions show the same warming trend.
"Scientists tried to 'hide the decline' in global temperature"
Phil Jones was quoted out of context, and nothing was hidden.
"Satellite error inflated Great Lakes temperatures"Temperature errors in the Great Lakes region are not used in any global temperature records.
"Dropped stations introduce warming bias"If the dropped stations had been kept, the temperature would actually be slightly higher.
"Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming"Trenberth is talking about the details of energy flow, not whether global warming is happening.
"2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory"The 2nd law of thermodynamics is consistent with the greenhouse effect which is directly observed.
"Models are unreliable"Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.
"Temp record is unreliable"The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites.
"They changed the name from global warming to climate change"'Global warming' and 'climate change' mean different things and have both been used for decades.
"It hasn't warmed since 1998"For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.
"CO2 lags temperature"CO2 didn't initiate warming from past ice ages but it did amplify the warming.
"It's cooling"The last decade 2000-2009 was the hottest on record.
"Mauna Loa is a volcano"The global trend is calculated from hundreds of CO2 measuring stations and confirmed by satellites.
"CO2 effect is saturated"Direct measurements find that rising CO2 is trapping more heat.
"CO2 effect is weak"The strong CO2 effect has been observed by many different measurements.
"There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature"There is long-term correlation between CO2 and global temperature; other effects are short-term.
"Phil Jones says no global warming since 1995"Phil Jones was misquoted.
"Solar Cycle Length proves its the sun"The sun has not warmed since 1970 and so cannot be driving global warming.
"Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity"Lindzen and Choi’s paper is viewed as unacceptably flawed by other climate scientists.
"We're heading into an ice age"Worry about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age in over 10,000 years.
"Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans"Humans emit 100 times more CO2 than volcanoes.
"Sea level rise is exaggerated"A variety of different measurements find steadily rising sea levels over the past century.
"Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated"Sea level rise is now increasing faster than predicted due to unexpectedly rapid ice melting.
"Ocean acidification isn't serious"
Past history shows that when CO2 rises quickly, there was mass extinctions of coral reefs.
"Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming"Extreme weather events are being made more frequent and worse by global warming.
"Oceans are cooling"The most recent ocean measurements show consistent warming.
"Arctic sea ice has recovered"Thick arctic sea ice is in rapid retreat.
"Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle"Thick arctic sea ice is undergoing a rapid retreat.
"Antarctica is gaining ice"Satellites measure Antarctica losing land ice at an accelerating rate.
"Glaciers are growing"Most glaciers are retreating, posing a serious problem for millions who rely on glaciers for water.
"Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming"There is increasing evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger due to global warming.
"Renewables can't provide baseload power"
A combination of renewables supplemented with natural gas can provide baseload power.
One last note: the Powerpoint mentions Skeptical Science in the middle of the presentation, but unfortunately links to the wrong URL, However, as there are so many other errors to correct, I've registered and redirected it to One less error to correct!

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