Martin Vermeer & Stefan Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009, Global sea level linked to global temperature

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print December 7, 2009; doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907765106

Global sea level linked to global temperature

Martin Vermeer* (Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology, P.O. Box 1200, FI-02150, Espoo, Finland) and Stefan Rahmstorf (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany)


Abstract

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.

Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved October 26, 2009 (received for review July 15, 2009).

*Correspondence e-mail: martin.vermeer@tkk.fi

Link to abstract:  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0907765106.abstract

Link to free, open-access paper:  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0907765106.full.pdf+html