Is this the beginning of water wars?

by Catherine Brahic, NewScientist, April 11, 2008

As Barcelona runs out of water, Spain has been forced to consider importing water from France by boat. It is the latest example of the growing struggle for water around the world – the "water wars".

Barcelona and the surrounding region are suffering the worst drought in decades. There are several possible solutions, including diverting a river, and desalinating water. But the city looks like it will ship water from the French port of Marseilles.

The water services authority in Marseille say that no contracts have been signed, and would not say how much the water would cost, although it is unlikely to cost any more than it costs the inhabitants of Marseilles. And the amounts of water than have been discussed are small – 25,000 cubic metres, less than what's needed to grow an acre of wheat, and not enough to keep 30 Spaniards going for a year, based on their average consumption.

But the proposal is interesting because it turns a local drought into an international situation.

Water conflict

Climatologists predict that certain regions, the Mediterranean basin among them, will increasingly suffer from water shortages as global temperatures are pushed up by greenhouse gas emissions.

Combined with reports that water scarcity can escalate conflicts, the forecasts have raised fears that climate change could bring about water wars.

"People will not fight over water," says Mark Zeitoun, from the London School of Economics' Centre for Environmental Policy and Governance in the UK. "But that's not to say water shortages will not contributing to existing tensions."

This is already happening. Zeitoun advises the Palestinian authorities in their water negotiations with Israel. The latter controls 90% of the two territories' shared water resources. "The fact that the Palestinians are deprived of their water doesn't help the situation," Zeitoun says.

Like Spain, the Palestinian authorities are considering their options, and like Spain one of them is to import water – in this case from Turkey, a country which is already involved in its own water disputes with Syria and Iraq.

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers start in Turkey and supply Syria and Iraq. The Turkish government is building dams on those rivers, reducing the flow downstream and stoking long-standing tensions with its neighbours. "Iraq desperately needs that water," says Zeitoun.

Water for arms

Turkey already exports water to Cyprus and in 2004 signed a "water for arms" deal with none other than Israel, an agreement which sees Turkey deliver converted oil tankers full of water to Israel in exchange for tanks and air force technology.

Israel's situation is typical of a state that is severely mismanaging its water resources, says Zeitoun. Climate change models predict that while water will become scarcer in some regions, it will be more abundant elsewhere, suggesting efficient water management is key.

"If Spain is drawing a lot of water to grow oranges for the UK, the city of Barcelona doesn't benefit. The only people profiting are a few large farmers," he says.

So while the water wars may not spark conflict between states, Zeitoun's colleague Elena Lopez-Gunn says we could well see water riots. "Whether the political systems can cope with that, we don't know," she says.

Link to article: http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn13655-is-this-the-beginning-of-water-wars.html

Med to get five times as many dangerously hot days

by Catherine Brahic, NewScientist, June 18, 2007

Countries around the Mediterranean are set to suffer up to five times as many dangerously hot summer days if greenhouse gas emissions continue their relentless rise, say researchers.

France will see the greatest increase in extreme summer temperatures, they predict.

Noah Diffenbaugh at Purdue University, US, and colleagues used a climate model for the Mediterranean region, which was so precise that they were able to resolve regional changes in temperature for every 20 square kilometres.

The model calculated an overall increase in temperature and also an increase in number of extremely hot days. Of all the Mediterranean countries, France will experience the greatest increase in extremely hot temperatures – in some French regions, summer days will be 8°C hotter than they were between 1961 and 1989.

Dangerously hot

But the thin strip of coast around the Med will see the largest increase in the number of dangerously hot days – up to 40 more days per year along the coastlines of Spain, Egypt and Libya.

The researchers compared two possible futures with their model. In the first, rapid population growth and few "green" policy measures meant that greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise exponentially during the 21st century. In the second, the global population did not rise as fast and governments and societies adopted more environmentally-friendly lifestyles (for instance, greener fuels).

Results from the first, more severe scenario, showed that the number of dangerously hot days could increase by between 200% and 500% by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue their exponential rise. As a result, temperatures currently experienced during the hottest two weeks of the summer would become typical of the coldest two weeks of the summer.

"One might expect that an average warming of four degrees would equate to each day warming by 4 degrees, but in fact the hottest days warm quite a bit more," says Diffenbaugh.

Sensitive region

Results from the second scenario suggest that reducing emissions levels could cut the increase in temperatures by half. But the researchers say governments should brace themselves for summer heatwaves like the one that struck Europe in 2003 to become commonplace, even if they adopt climate-friendly policies.

"We find that decreases in greenhouse gas emissions greatly reduce the impact, but we see negative effects even with reduced emissions," explains Diffenbaugh.

He says that what makes the Mediterranean region so sensitive to climate change is a "surface moisture feedback": as temperatures rise, the landmass not only gets hotter, it gets drier too. "This means there is less evaporative cooling," explains Diffenbach.

The 2003 heatwave is thought to have killed 35,000 people across Europe, nearly 15,000 of which were in France.

Journal reference: Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030000)

Link to article: http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn12086-med-to-get-five-times-as-many-dangerously-hot-days.html