Lester Brown guest posts on Climate Progress blog, discusses Plan B

Lester Brown guest posts on Climate Progress blog

[Joe Romm] had lunch with him recently, an eye-opener even for someone who follows these issues closely.  [Joe Romm] asked him to submit some blog posts.  What follows is his first, about his new book, which was just released September 29, 2009.

In early 2008, Saudi Arabia announced that, after being self-sufficient in wheat for over 20 years, the non-replenishable aquifer it had been pumping for irrigation was largely depleted.

In response, officials said they would reduce their wheat harvest by one eighth each year until production would cease entirely in 2016. The Saudis would then import virtually all the grain consumed by their Canada-sized population of nearly 30 million people.

The Saudis are unique in being so wholly dependent on irrigation.  But other, far larger, grain producers such as India and China are facing irrigation water losses and could face grain production declines.

Water Shortages Undermining Food Security


Fifteen percent of India’s grain harvest is produced by overpumping its groundwater. In human terms, 175 million Indians are being fed with grain produced from wells that will be going dry. The comparable number for China is 130 million. Among the many other countries facing harvest reductions from groundwater depletion are Pakistan, Iran, and Yemen.

The tripling of world wheat, rice, and corn prices between mid-2006 and mid-2008 signaled our growing vulnerability to food shortages. It took the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression to lower grain prices.

Past decades have witnessed world grain price surges, but they were event-drive-a drought in the former Soviet Union, a monsoon failure in India, or a crop-withering heat wave in the U.S. Corn Belt. This most recent price surge was trend-driven, the result of our failure to reverse the environmental trends that are undermining world food production.

These trends include-in addition to falling water tables-eroding soils and rising temperatures from increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Rising temperatures bring crop-shrinking heat waves, melting ice sheets, rising sea level, and shrinking mountain glaciers.

With both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melting at an accelerating pace, sea level could rise by up to six feet during this century. Such a rise would inundate much of the Mekong Delta, which produces half of the rice in Viet Nam, the world’s second-ranking rice exporter. Even a three-foot rise in sea level would cover half the riceland in Bangladesh, a country of 160 million people. And these are only two of Asia’s many rice-growing river deltas.

The world’s mountain glaciers have shrunk for 18 consecutive years. Many smaller glaciers have disappeared. Nowhere is the melting more alarming than in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau where the ice melt from glaciers sustains not only the dry-season flow of the Indus, Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers but also the irrigation systems that depend on them. Without these glaciers, many Asian rivers would cease to flow during the dry season.

The wheat and rice harvests of China and India would be directly affected. China is the world’s leading wheat producer. India is second. (The United States is third.) With rice, China and India totally dominate the world harvest. The projected melting of these glaciers poses the most massive threat to food security the world has ever faced.

An Early Sign of Decline?

The number of hungry people, which was declining for several decades, bottomed out in the mid-1990s at 825 million. In 2009 it jumped to over 1 billion. With world food prices projected to continue rising, so too will the number of hungry people.

We know from studying earlier civilizations such as the Sumerians, Mayans, and many others, that more often than not it was food shortages that led to their demise. It now appears that food may be the weak link in our early twenty-first century civilization as well.

Will we follow in the footsteps of the Sumerians and the Mayans or can we change course–and do it before time runs out? Can we move onto an economic path that is environmentally sustainable? We think we can. That is what Plan B 4.0 is about.

Mobilizing to Save Civilization

Plan B aims to stabilize climate, stabilize population, eradicate poverty, and restore the economy’s natural support systems. It prescribes a worldwide cut in net carbon emissions of 80 percent by 2020, thus keeping atmospheric CO2 concentrations from exceeding 400 parts per million.

Cutting carbon emissions will require both a worldwide revolution in energy efficiency and a shift from oil, coal, and gas to wind, solar, and geothermal energy.

The shift to renewable sources of energy is moving at a pace and on a scale we could not imagine even two years ago. Consider the state of Texas. The enormous number of wind projects under development, on top of the 9,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity in operation and under construction, will bring Texas to over 50,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity (think 50 coal-fired power plants) when all these wind farms are completed. This will more than satisfy the needs of the state’s 24 million residents.

Nationwide, new wind generating capacity in 2008 totaled 8,400 megawatts while new coal plants totaled only 1,400 megawatts. The annual growth in solar generating capacity will also soon overtake that of coal. The energy transition is under way.

The United States has led the world in each of the last four years in new wind generating capacity, having overtaken Germany in 2005. But this lead will be short-lived.  China is working on six wind farm mega-complexes with generating capacities that range from 10,000 to 30,000 megawatts, for a total of 105,000 megawatts. This is in addition to the hundreds of smaller wind farms built or planned.

Wind is not the only option. In July 2009, a consortium of European corporations led by Munich Re, and including Deutsche Bank, Siemens, and ABB plus an Algerian firm, announced a proposal to tap the massive solar thermal generating capacity in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Solar thermal power plants in North Africa could economically supply half of Europe’s electricity. The Algerians note that they have enough harnessable solar energy in their desert to power the world economy. (No, this is not an error.)

The soaring investment in wind, solar, and geothermal energy is being driven by the exciting realization that these renewables can last as long as the earth itself. In contrast to investing in new oil fields where well yields begin to decline in a matter of decades, or in coal mines where the seams run out, these new energy sources can last forever.

At a Tipping Point

We are in a race between political tipping points and natural tipping points. Can we cut carbon emissions fast enough to save the Greenland ice sheet and avoid the resulting rise in sea level? Can we close coal-fired power plants fast enough to save at least the larger glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau? Can we stabilize population by lowering fertility before nature takes over and halts population growth by raising mortality?

Yes. But it will take something close to a wartime mobilization, one similar to that of the United States in 1942 as it restructured its industrial economy in a matter of months. We used to talk about saving the planet, but it is civilization itself that is now at risk.

Saving civilization is not a spectator sport. Each of us must push for rapid change. And we must be armed with a plan outlining the changes needed.

– Lester Brown

W.W.L. Cheung, Global Change Biology, Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

Global Change Biology (22 June 2009); DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x

Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

William W. L. Cheung*, Vicky W. Y. Lam, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Kelly Kearney, Reg Watson, Dirk Zeller and Daniel Pauly

(Received 21 December 2008; revised version received 13 April 2009 and accepted 6 May 2009.)

   

Abstract

Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30–70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fisheries management options under climate change.

*Correspondence:  tel. +44 1603 593647, fax +44 1603 591327, e-mail: William.cheung@uea.ac.uk 

Link to abstract:  http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122462741/abstract

Sea level rise has quadrupled risk of serious flooding along south coast of England

Rising sea levels are increasing risk of flooding along south coast of England

ScienceDaily, Oct. 10, 2009 — A new study by researchers at the University of Southampton has found that sea levels have been rising across the south coast of England over the past century, substantially increasing the risk of flooding during storms.

The team has conducted a major data collection exercise, bringing together computer and paper-based records from across the south of England, from the Scilly Isles to Sheerness, to form a single data set of south coast sea levels across the years.

Their work has added collectively about 150 years worth of historic data to the existing record of English Channel sea-level change and extended the data along the south coast. Their findings are published in the latest edition of the journal Continental Shelf Research.

The data shows that both average sea levels and extreme sea levels have been rising at a similar rate through the 20th century. The rate of rise is in the range 1.2-2.2 mm per year, with 1.3 mm per year recorded at Southampton.

Coastal engineering expert Professor Robert Nicholls, of the University's School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, who conducted the study, comments: "While these changes seem small, over a century they accumulate and substantially increase the risk of flooding during storms, unless there have been corresponding upgrades to flood defences. A water level that had an average likelihood of occurring once every 100 years in 1900 now has an average likelihood of occurring on average every 10 to 25 years, depending on the site considered. As sea levels continue to rise and probably accelerate, this increase in the likelihood of flooding will continue."

The most significant extension to the records is that of sea level changes at Southampton where the record now begins in 1935.

Paper-based records at St Mary's on the Isles of Scilly, Weymouth, Southampton and Newhaven have been used to greatly extend existing computer-based records, while the records at Devonport and Portsmouth have both been extended and corrected for pervious errors of interpretation.

This new data is feeding into ongoing efforts to increase the understanding and management of flooding.

The work was conducted by Professor Robert Nicholls, Dr Neil Wells from the University's School of Ocean and Earth Science based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton and Dr Ivan Haigh, formerly of the University of Southampton and now at the University of Western Australia.

Link to article:  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091009092348.htm

Idaho National Laboratory Center for Advanced Energy Studies tests new wind energy system

Idaho National Laboratory

Representatives from the Blackhawk Project, LLC, recently installed an innovative wind energy system at INL's Center for Advanced Energy Studies.

Center for Advanced Energy Studies tests new wind energy system

by Ryan Weeks, INL Communications and Public Affairs, October 12, 2009

The system's tilt rotor lets the turbine self-start without external devices, reducing the noise, electronics and heights associated with traditional wind systems.

Blackhawk helicopters accomplish our nation's missions every day. Now, Idaho National Laboratory's Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES) is supporting a new kind of Blackhawk to develop energy solutions.

Researchers from the Blackhawk Project LLC are testing and monitoring a new Blackhawk Tilt Rotor (TR-10) Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) recently installed at CAES. This wind system, developed by Blackhawk, represents what could be a significant evolution in wind energy technology.

"One of the reasons we chose Blackhawk is that it invites involvement from students and faculty," said Raymond Grosshans, program coordinator at CAES. "And it supports economic development in Idaho."

Students and researchers will monitor the turbine's performance, acoustic profile, strength, safety and durability.

Blackhawk's unique design distinguishes it from traditional wind energy systems. The most obvious distinction is that its helicopter-like wings, known as airfoils, rotate parallel to the ground, unlike most commercial turbines.
The airfoils attach to a patent-pending tilt rotor in the center of the turbine. The slanted rotor allows the turbine to self-start without any external devices. This passive-control system offers power generation without the noise, clutching, electronics, tower heights or heavy blades often associated with common wind machines.


The TR-10 is part of The Blackhawk Project's prototype series and produces around 1.5 kilowatts of power -- enough electricity to supplement a home, power a workshop or drive other small applications.

The power generated from the system will feed directly into CAES, but supplying the building with extra electricity is not why the center agreed to test the Blackhawk.

The Blackhawk wind energy system's unique design uses airfoils that rotate parallel to the ground.

"CAES' main focus is to create opportunities for research collaborations between Idaho National Laboratory researchers, the  Idaho research universities and the private sector," Grosshans said.
Students and researchers at CAES will be monitoring the turbine's performance, acoustic profile, strength, safety and durability.

A student crew chief will oversee maintenance of the turbine, which, Blackhawk says, is more durable than traditional windmills because it has fewer electronic gadgets and parts. Plus, the long arms of the turbine create such a high degree of torque that the unit is able to produce more power with fewer revolutions per minute (RPMs), which reduces wear and tear. When the turbine does need repairs or maintenance, locking magnets hold the rotor in place and prevent accidental spinning, creating a built-in safety feature.

The system will create research opportunities for students, universities, INL and the private sector.

Students also will be responsible for developing operation and procedure manuals for the turbine and helping write grants for the company.
"Collaboration with our company is a natural fit," said Dawn Cardwell, Blackhawk's project manager. "The data-collection capabilities and access to universities and researchers is something we don't have."

The project also provides learning opportunities for high school students.
A Web cam streams video to high schools all over the country, and telemetry gives students of all levels easy access to real-time data from CAES' grid-type system.

"Students, faculty and researchers can use it for instrumentation, developing modeling tools and to support ongoing classroom activities," said Grosshans.
Developers have found that the VAWT can produce electricity in winds as light as 7 mph. Propeller-type wind mills typically require speeds of 12 to 15 mph.

Pushrods and elastomeric bands, which Grosshans describes as "high-tech rubber bands," are attached to the airfoils and help protect the turbine from storm damage. These rods adjust to the wind and allow the rotor to tilt without overworking the turbine. These features have allowed the turbine to successfully function in wind speeds as high as 101 mph.

Blackhawk hopes the data tracked at CAES will narrow the commercialization gap for its system, which the company bills as a low-cost, low-maintenance alternative to horizontal-axis residential turbines currently on the market.

The entire turbine fits in the back of a pickup and takes about three hours to install. With a mere 10-foot diameter, the TR-10 is set to enter the small-turbine industry targeting farms, shops and homes in rural and semirural areas.

"We can be the market leader for bang-for-the-buck," said Bruce Boatner, Blackhawk's lead engineer.

Link:  https://inlportal.inl.gov/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=1269&mode=2&featurestory=DA_521418

Lehmann, Fennel, & He, Biogeosciences, Statistical validation of a 3-D bio-physical model of the western North Atlantic

Biogeosciences, 6(10) (2009) 1961-1974.

Statistical validation of a 3-D bio-physical model of the western North Atlantic

M. K. Lehmann, K. Fennel (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmosphere Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, U.S.A.) and R. He (Department of Marine, Earth and Atmosphere Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, U.S.A.)

Abstract

High-resolution, physical-biological models of coastal and shelf regions typically use a single functional phytoplankton group, which limits their ability to represent ecological gradients (e.g., highly productive shelf systems adjacent to oligotrophic regions), as these are dominated by different functional phytoplankton groups. We implemented a size-structured ecosystem model in a high-resolution, regional circulation model of the northeast North American shelf and adjacent deep ocean in order to assess whether the added functional complexity of two functional phytoplankton groups improves the model's ability to represent surface chlorophyll concentrations along an ecological gradient encompassing five distinct regions. We used satellite-derived SST and sea-surface chlorophyll for our model assessment, as these allow investigation of spatial variability and temporal variations from monthly to interannual, and analyzed three complementary statistical measures of model-data agreement: model bias, root mean square error and model efficiency (or skill). All three measures were integrated for the whole domain, for distinct subregions and were calculated in a spatially explicit manner. Comparison with a previously published simulation that used a model with a single phytoplankton functional group indicates that the inclusion of an additional phytoplankton group representing picoplankton markedly improves the model's skill.

Final Revised Paper (PDF, 2985 KB)   Supplement (229 KB)   Discussion Paper (BGD)

Lehmann, M. K., Fennel, K., & He, R. (2009). Statistical validation of a 3-D bio-physical model of the western North Atlantic, Biogeosciences, 6, 1961-1974. 

Link to abstract:  http://www.biogeosciences.net/6/1961/2009/bg-6-1961-2009.html

P.E. Thorton et al., Biogeosciences, Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: Results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

Biogeosciences, 6(10) (2009) 2099-2120.

Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: Results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

P. E. Thornton (Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6335, U.S.A.), S. C. Doney (Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543-1543, U.S.A.), K. Lindsay (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, U.S.A.), J. K. Moore (Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, U.S.A.), N. Mahowald (Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, U.S.A.), J. T. Randerson (Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, U.S.A.), I. Fung (Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-4767, U.S.A.), J.-F. Lamarque (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3337, and Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, U.S.A.), J. J. Feddema (Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045-7613, U.S.A.), and Y.-H. Lee (Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, U.S.A.)

Abstract

Inclusion of fundamental ecological interactions between carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land component of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) leads to decreased carbon uptake associated with CO₂ fertilization, and increased carbon uptake associated with warming of the climate system. The balance of these two opposing effects is to reduce the fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ predicted to be sequestered in land ecosystems. The primary mechanism responsible for increased land carbon storage under radiatively forced climate change is shown to be fertilization of plant growth by increased mineralization of nitrogen directly associated with increased decomposition of soil organic matter under a warming climate, which in this particular model results in a negative gain for the climate-carbon feedback. Estimates for the land and ocean sink fractions of recent anthropogenic emissions are individually within the range of observational estimates, but the combined land plus ocean sink fractions produce an airborne fraction which is too high compared to observations. This bias is likely due in part to an underestimation of the ocean sink fraction. Our results show a significant growth in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions over the coming century, attributable in part to a steady decline in the ocean sink fraction. Comparison to experimental studies on the fate of radio-labeled nitrogen tracers in temperate forests indicates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions, and a stronger positive growth response to warming in those regions, than predicted by a similar AOGCM implemented without land carbon-nitrogen interactions. We expect that the between-model uncertainty in predictions of future atmospheric CO₂ concentration and associated anthropogenic climate change will be reduced as additional climate models introduce carbon-nitrogen cycle interactions in their land components.

Final Revised Paper (PDF, 2280 KB)   Discussion Paper (BGD)

www.biogeosciences.net/6/2099/2009/

Thornton, P. E., Doney, S. C., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Mahowald, N., Randerson, J. T., Fung, I., Lamarque, J.-F., Feddema, J. J., & Lee, Y.-H. (2009). Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, Biogeosciences, 6, 2099-2120.

© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Link to abstract:   http://www.biogeosciences.net/6/2099/2009/bg-6-2099-2009.html

Inclusion of nitrogen cycle, a key variable in climate models, refines predictions of atmospheric CO2

Key new ingredient in climate model refines global predictions

	ORNL's Peter Thornton is helping climate scientists incorporate the nitrogen cycle into global simulations for climate change.

OAK RIDGE, Tenn., Oct. 9, 2009 — For the first time, climate scientists from across the country have successfully incorporated the nitrogen cycle into global simulations for climate change, questioning previous assumptions regarding carbon feedback and potentially helping to refine model forecasts about global warming. The results of the experiment at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are published in the current issue of Biogeosciences. They illustrate the complexity of climate modeling by demonstrating how natural processes still have a strong effect on the carbon cycle and climate simulations. In this case, scientists found that the rate of climate change over the next century could be higher than previously anticipated when the requirement of plant nutrients are included in the climate model.

ORNL's Peter Thornton, lead author of the paper, describes the inclusion of these processes as a necessary step to improve the accuracy of climate change assessments.

"We've shown that if all of the global modeling groups were to include some kind of nutrient dynamics, the range of model predictions would shrink because of the constraining effects of the carbon nutrient limitations, even though it's a more complex model."

To date, climate models ignored the nutrient requirements for new vegetation growth, assuming that all plants on earth had access to as much "plant food" as they needed. But by taking the natural demand for nutrients into account, the authors have shown that the stimulation of plant growth over the coming century may be two to three times smaller than previously predicted. Since less growth implies less CO2 absorbed by vegetation, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to increase.

However, this reduction in growth is partially offset by another effect on the nitrogen cycle: an increase in the availability of nutrients resulting from an accelerated rate of decomposition -- the rotting of dead plants and other organic matter -- that occurs with a rise in temperature.

Combining these two effects, the authors discovered that the increased availability of nutrients from more rapid decomposition did not counterbalance the reduced level of plant growth calculated by natural nutrient limitations; therefore less new growth and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected.

The study's author list, which consists of scientists from eight different institutions around the U.S. including ORNL, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, and several research universities, exemplifies the broad expertise required to engage in the multidisciplinary field that is global climate modeling.

"In order to do these experiments in the climate system model, expertise is needed in the nitrogen cycle, but there is also a need for climate modeling expertise, the ocean has to be involved properly, the atmospheric chemistry . . . and then there are a lot of observations that have been used to parameterize the model," said Thornton, who works in ORNL's Environmental Sciences Division.

"The biggest challenge has been bridging this multidisciplinary gap and demonstrating to the very broad range of climate scientists who range everywhere from cloud dynamicists to deep ocean circulation specialists that [incorporating the nitrogen cycle] is a worthwhile and useful approach."

The ability to handle the increase in complexities of these models was facilitated by the capabilities of ORNL's Leadership Computing Facility, which currently houses the world's fastest supercomputer for civilian research. Jim Hack, director of the National Center for Computational Sciences, emphasizes that Thornton and his team were not limited by computational resources in the construction of his model. "It's one of the laboratory competencies, so we want to make sure we enable leadership science," he said.

This breakthrough is one more step toward a more realistic prediction for the future of the earth's climate. Nevertheless, potentially significant processes and dynamics are still missing from the simulations. Thornton also stresses the importance of long-term observation so scientists can better understand and model these processes.

A 15-year study of the role nitrogen plays in plant nutrition at Harvard Forest was an important observational source used to test their mathematical representation of the nitrogen cycle--a long experiment by any standards, but still an experiment that, according to Thornton, could improve the accuracy of the simulation if conducted even longer.

Other shortcomings of climate simulations include the disregard of changing vegetation patterns due to human land use and potential shifts in types of vegetation that might occur under a changing climate, although both topics are the focus of ongoing studies.

The research was funded by the DOE Office of Science. Additional resources were contributed by NASA Earth Science Enterprise, Terrestrial Ecology Program; National Center for Atmospheric Research through the NCAR Community Climate System Modeling program and the NCAR Biogeosciences program.
UT-Battelle manages Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Department of Energy.

Link:  http://www.ornl.gov/info/press_releases/get_press_release.cfm?ReleaseNumber=mr20091009-00

Experts warn glaciers in Indian Kashmir melting

By AIJAZ HUSSAIN, Associated Press Writer – Tue Oct 13, 6:54 am ET

SRINAGAR, India – Indian Kashmir's glaciers are melting fast because of rising temperatures, threatening the water supply of millions of people in the Himalayan region, a new study by Indian scientists says.

The study by Kashmir University's geology and geophysics department blamed the effect on climate change, and said it endangered the livelihoods of two-thirds of the region's nearly 10 million people engaged in agriculture, horticulture, livestock rearing and forestry.

The Kolahoi glacier, the biggest in the Indian portion of divided Kashmir, has shrunk to about 4.44 square miles (11.5 square kilometers) from about five square miles (13 square kilometers) in the past 40 years, the study found.

Shakil Romshoo, an associate professor in the department who led to three-year study, described the rate of melting as "alarming." He said Tuesday that Kolahoi had shrunk by 18 percent, and over the same period, other glaciers in the region had shrunk by 16 percent.

The Kolahoi feeds Kashmir's lifeline Jhelum River, which is also vital for agriculture in Pakistan's most populous province of Punjab.

The study was released Monday at a workshop on the impact of shrinking glaciers held in Srinagar, the capital of Indian Kashmir.

Last year, international charity ActionAid also warned that the glaciers in most areas of Kashmir have shrunk. The group said that climate change was affecting rain and snowfall patterns, which was lowering food production.

Prof. Syeed Iqbal Hasnain, head glaciologist at New Delhi-based the Energy and Resources Institute, said the findings show again that "warming of the climate system was unequivocal."

Rajeev Upadhay, an Indian geologist who has studied glaciers since 1995, said the new study was in line with previous ones.

"The study confirms the general trend that about 90 percent of all Himalayan glaciers are receding. Some glaciers are receding at an alarming rate of 44-45 meters (yards) per year," said Upadhay, who was not involved in the Kashmir University study.

He also said the Siachen glacier, where rival Indian and Pakistani troops have been entrenched for 25 years, has melted to half its earlier size.

"The unusual climate change clubbed with other activities at the Siachen Glacier has reduced it to 46 miles (74 kilometers) from 93 miles (150 kilometers) in length," he said.

The Siachen Glacier is often dubbed the world's highest battlefield. The nuclear-armed South Asian nations have competing territorial claims to Siachen and troops have been locked in a standoff there at an altitude of up to 20,000 feet (6,100-meter) since 1984.

India and Pakistani have fought two wars over control of Kashmir since 1947 after they won independence from Britain. Both claim the divided territory in its entirety.

 Link:  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091013/ap_on_re_as/as_kashmir_melting_glaciers

Of moles and whacking: “Mojib Latif predicted two decades of cooling” [Tenney here: NOT!]

Of moles and whacking: “Mojib Latif predicted two decades of cooling” [Tenney here:  NOT!]

The Way Things Break blog, September 11, 2009 · 59 Comments

Or: Journalists should report what climate science actually “says”, rather than what they mistakenly “believe” it to say – Part II

In Part I we looked at some issues relating to climate science that the Houston Chronicle’s “SciGuy” Eric Berger was mistaken about and had blamed “climate scientists” for. And while pointing out that it isn’t particularly fair for Mr. Berger to blame climate scientists for his misunderstandings, it would also be unfair to say that his confusion was his fault alone.

Fred Pearce wrote a recent column for New Scientist claiming climate modeler Mojib Latif predicted that up to two decades of cooling were coming: “We could be about to enter one or even two decades of cooler temperatures, according to one of the world’s top climate modellers.” Pearce’s claim was promptly picked up by the denialosphere and has been cited by “skeptics” as well as those who believe climate science is undergoing some sort of shake up, like Mr. Berger. Pearce’s story is greatly misleading both in terms of what Latif actually said and the role climate scientists believe natural variability plays in the climate system.

First a bit of background: Pearce’s story was written about a recent climate summit: the World Climate Conference-3. Part of the summit was dedicated to Advancing Climate Prediction Science; Latif’s presentation was concerned with decadal-scale climate predictions -- concerning not only their potential value and viability but also the significant challenges that remain before we can make useful ones.

On interannual (more than a single year) and decadal (tens of years) scales, natural variability swamps the long term anthropogenic warming trend. That is to say that variations in naturally occurring aspects of the climate system have more of an impact on the ultimate value of, say, global average temperature over a span of 10 or so years than man-made global warming does. For example, changes in ENSO are one of the largest sources of natural variability and thus influence on global average temperatures in the climate system on interannual scales. In 1998, a very strong El Niño boosted the global average temperature much higher than the overall trend, while in 2008, a persistent La Niña in cahoots with a solar minimum ensured that temperature was in the top 10 (#9 for NASA, #10 for Met Hadley) hottest years on record, but not a record breaker.
While this might be surprising for some readers, let’s be clear: This is not “new” information. This does not represent a “shake up” of the climate science community’s understanding of the system, or a blow to “settled science.” This is acknowledged in the IPCC’s most recent Assessment Report (AR4 WG1 8.3 and 9.4) as well as in the relevant primary literature. For example, the AR4 Synthesis Report states:

On scales [smaller than 50 years], natural climate variability is relatively larger [than human influences], making it harder to distinguish changes expected due to external [e.g., man-made] forcings.

Latif begins the section of his presentation misrepresented by Pearce by confirming that the media incorrectly believes that global warming is monotonic- something that we know the warming is decidedly not; something not claimed by “climate science” or “climate scientists.” Significant natural variability is superimposed on the long term man-made warming trend. Although the press might expect for us to set a new temperature record every year, the existence of natural variability means that we could in theory wait a long time (~17 years) before setting a new temperature record. Latif imagines ‘what if’:

It may well happen that you enter a decade, or maybe even two -- you know -- when the temperature cools -- all right -- relative to the present level -- all right?

And then -- you know -- I know what’s going to happen -- you know? I will get -- you know -- millions of phone calls -- you know:

“Eh, what’s going on? So, is global warming disappearing?” You know? “Have you lied on [sic] us?”

So -- you know -- and therefore this is the reason why we need to address this decadal prediction issue.

[ed. note: "entering... two [decades]” depending on the usage can take as little as 11 years, “enter[ing]” a decade” as little as one]

This was not an explicit prediction by Latif -- it was a hypothetical scenario that is a real, if  not necessarily likely, possibility. Latif is saying that because people don’t understand that global warming isn’t supposed to be monotonic, and that there could be periods where temperatures pause or even dip below the present, the media and/or public will incorrectly believe that global warming has stopped/was wrong, etc., even though such “pauses” in warming are decidedly not contrary to our understanding of the climate system and how we anticipate it will respond to emissions driven warming.

Of course this is like cat nip to the denialists and their fellow travelers like Roger Pielke Jr. It feeds into the caricature, enabled by sloppy journalism, that nearly everything can happen because of global warming [often phrased, "Global warming, is there anything it can't do?" Sometimes with 'global warming' stricken out and replaced with 'climate change'].

Latif goes on to describe a number of phenomena that have an overall trend but are dominated on the interannual and even decadal scales by natural variability: Sahel rainfall, Atlantic tropical cyclones, regional sea levels. Again, none of this is new, none of it was presented as new. This represents no paradigm shift within climate science.

Latif then switches gears to model initialization. When the IPCC offers projections of global temperature change into the next 100 years, these are not predictions- as previously discussed. And dealing with interannual or decadal predictions instead of looking at the changes to temperature trends 100 years out is a difference between an initial value problem and a boundary value (or in Latif’s words, a “boundary force”) problem. Uncertainties about emissions scenarios (how much carbon we decide to burn) and model biases are the dominant areas of uncertainty for end-of-century projections of changes of how temperature will trend.

However, on much shorter scales, such as interannual or decadal scales, can you guess what the largest source of uncertainty becomes? Yep, that’s right, natural variability. Prediction on such short timescales then becomes at least partially an initial value problem. Latif rightly understands that such short term predictions depend on accurate understanding and modeling of initialization factors like variance in the North Atlantic Oscillation. You might remember when a team he was part of made some waves in predicting a temporary pause in warming/global cooling in their attempt to initialize a climate model to make a deliberate prediction (rather than say an end-of-century projection) of temperature for the next few decades. Suffice it to say that not everyone has found the basis of their prediction (of no immediate warming) particularly compelling.
Latif’s warning, garbled though it became regarding the reality and difficulty in predicting natural variability, deserves to be acknowledged. It’s exceedingly difficult for me to see, however, how or why the presentation was subsequently spun in the manner that it was, or why science journalists like Mr. Berger would accept said spin so uncritically.

Pearce’s article gives the false impression that there is a “new” or “growing” dissent from the broad strokes consensus on climate change. This couldn’t be further from the truth. I appreciate Pearce’s concern (that the existence of natural variability can embolden denialists), but it sounds like this concern has caused him to unnecessarily and inaccurately frame Latif’s presentation as a challenge to the scientific consensus on climate change. Natural variability is of course real. It can and will overwhelm man-made warming on shorter timescales. That journalists are beginning to pay attention to this simple fact is not a reflection of a sea change in our understanding of climate science.

Latif’s presentation and audio [LATE UPDATE: The audio has moved, it's now here under "Advancing Climate Prediction Science"; the presentation is available here] are available for anyone to examine. We can look at Mr. Berger and others’ claims about hurricanes/tropical cyclones and anthropogenic warming in a Part III, if there is interest.

[Fixed some spelling errors and reworded the penultimate paragraph for clarity]

---

Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)

• Deferred Forecasts Of Global Warming – An Example Of The Misuse of Science
• Global Warming myth is an excuse to raise energy prices worldwide!
• Nasty Climate Questions
• Political pollution: The true cost of petroleum

Link to The Way Things Break blog post:  http://thingsbreak.wordpress.com/2009/09/11/of-moles-and-whacking-mojib-latif-predicted-two-decades-of-cooling/

New York Times absence of journalistic integrity becomes ever more appalling -- now they shill for the health insurance industry, as well as ExxonMobil

Dear Readers,

It is getting to the point that the New York Times has become a simple prostitute for corporate interests (i.e., ExxonMobil, other fossil-fuel companies, and the health insurance industry, just for starters).

The NYTimes has so lost its journalistic integrity that it is hard to know which articles are puff pieces and which are not.

If the NYTimes believe they have a long-term future doing this, they are very mistaken.

All that remains is for Fox News to buy them out.

From the Naked Capitalism blog -- the best in describing what is really going on in the financial world. (Bold face emphases are mine.)

Naked Capitalism, Tuesday, October 13, 2009

New York Times: Missing in Action on Health Insurance Lobby Duplicity

In the early days of this blog, I would often wind up comparing coverage of news between the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal because the offender (almost without exception the Journal) had done a job so poor or misleading that it merited comment. Then the credit crisis forced the Journal to up its game, and the FT appeared to slip a bit (I wondered if it was catering, as in pandering, to US readers).

This time, the dubious reporting object lesson is the New York Times, on what is supposedly its most prized beat: Washington, DC, political reporting. The Times ran two articles that verged on sycophantic in its coverage of the health insurance industry as it moved its chess pieces on the health care reform game board. The Times acted as close to a PR outlet. From an early August post:

A similar charade is in motion on the health care front. My bullshit meter went into high alert earlier this week with this New York Times story, “For Health Insurers’ Lobbyist, Good Will Is Tested,” which was clearly a PR plant. It featured Karen Ignagni, a $1.6 million-a-year earning lobbyist to the health insurance industry as a heroine (I started getting nauseaous as soon as I saw the deliberately low-key picture of her in her office). And why should we see a representative of one of the biggest forces undermining democracy in America, the usually-successful efforts of well-funded industry groups to steam-roll legislative process, as a good guy, or in this case, gal? Because she supposedly talked a mean and obstructionist industry into playing nice.

Towards the end of August, in “New York Times Runs Yet Another Fawning Story on Health Insurance Industry,” I noted:

The latest salvo in the health care industry charm offensive is another story humanizing the health insurance industry, this one on the front page of the New York Times website, “Dealing With Being the Health Care ‘Villains’ ”

 So what is the story about? The author, Kevin Sack, interviewed a bunch of employees at Humana, the fourth-largest insurance company.

Let’s start with the basics. Why is this even a reasonable premise for a story? This is a perverse twist on a type of story the Times runs periodically, of dropping into a particular community, often in the heartland, to get the populace’s view on a pressing political or social issue.

Since when is it legitimate, much the less newsworthy, to get a company’s perception on its embattled status, at least without introducing either some contrary opinion or better yet, facts, to counter the views of people who will inevitably see what they are doing as right? I hate to draw an extreme comparison to make the point, but staff in Nazi concentration camps also thought they were good people. It is well documented that for all save the depressed, people’s assessments of their own behavior is biased in their favor.

Similarly, I don’t recall many examples of industries under attack having prominent members get flattering front page pieces. The now-famous AIG Financial Products “I Quit” letter was an op-ed. I will admit I could have missed it, but I did not see any New York Times front page pieces during the auto bailouts featuring GM or Chrysler execs and workers saying they were misunderstood. and were being maligned.

So what do we have here? You have a bunch of people whose livelihood depends on Humana. Of course they are gong to see the industry as benign.

And nowhere in this fawning piece do you see mention made of the ugly fact that as recently as the early 1990s, 95% of every dollar spent on insurance claims went to medical care. It is now only 80%. That is a simply stunning change, and shows how completely fact free the industry’s defenses are. The insurers are a major culprit in America’s high medical costs. But no, we are supposed to take the mere opinion of employees who are deeply vested in the current system as views worth considering.

Back in the days when I did M&A, one of my clients was a frighteningly good negotiator. He knew part of his reason for success was that he did not look the part: he was short, genial, a bit rotund, and bespectacled. He would (to those who he was certain would not spill the beans on him) describe himself as the Antichrist and say things like: “I rub their bellies and only years later do they realize what I have done to them.” And I have to say, he was masterful in getting people to think his self-serving view of things was the only sensible way to see a situation.

The insurance industry is not so adept, or more accurately, is less concerned about appearances than my old client. The Financial Times reports tonight that the health insurance industry, after its great show of making nice to the Obama administration, backstabbed it on the eve of a key vote. Do we see any coverage of this duplicity in the US media, much less the New York Times?

From “Health insurance lobby attacks reforms” in the Financial Times:

The White House and the health insurance industry on Monday descended into open conflict on the eve of a critical Senate vote that could determine the fortunes of Barack Obama’s healthcare reform plans.

Supporters of President Obama accused the health insurance industry of attempted “sabotage” after it issued a report by PwC, which estimated that premiums would rise much faster under the proposed reforms than they would have done otherwise.

The 26-page report marked an abrupt end to the unlikely alliance between Mr Obama and America’s Health Insurance Plans – the main industry lobby group, which has spent about $100m on advertising to support the reforms….

A spokesman for Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which is to hold a key vote on Tuesday on its $829bn, 10-year, healthcare reform plan, described the report as a “hatchet job, pure and simple.”

The Wall Street Journal did report on the insurer “push back” and indicated that the industry had cooperated earlier, “attracted to the effort, in part, by the prospect of gaining millions of new customers.” So the Journal’s staff recognized this as a mere marriage of convenience from the get-go.

Update 4:30 a.m.: Robert Reich is more optimistic about the implications than I am, see “The Audacity of Greed: How Private Health Insurers Just Blew Their Cover.”

Link:   http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/new-york-times-missing-in-action-on-health-insurance-lobby-duplicity.html

BBC: Species extinction rates much higher than predicted only few years ago, especially for freshwater species like fish, frogs, turtles and crocodiles

New fears for species extinctions

by Emilio San Pedro, BBC News, October 11, 2009

Scientists say nations have not honoured commitments

Scientists have warned of an alarming increase in the extinction of animal species, because of threats to biodiversity and ecosystems.

The threats are posed by pollution, climate change and urban spread.
The comments come two days ahead of a meeting of the Diversitas group of global experts on biodiversity in the South African city of Cape Town.

Group members say world leaders have failed to honour commitments on reducing the loss of biodiversity.

Rivers warning

These latest warnings are stark.

They point to statistics that demonstrate that the extinction rates of animal species are much higher than had been predicted only a few years ago.

The worst affected -- according to the scientists from the Diversitas group of biodiversity experts -- are freshwater species like fish, frogs, turtles and crocodiles.

The scientists warn that these freshwater species are becoming extinct six times faster than their terrestrial and marine cousins.

Some of the group's experts predict that by 2025 not a single river in China will reach the sea -- except during floods.

The members of Diversitas are meeting from Tuesday in Cape Town to come up with new goals to slow down the extinction rates.

They lay the blame on these increased threats to animal species on world leaders.

The leaders, they say, have failed to implement the policies needed to make good on their commitments -- drafted at the Earth Summit in Johannesburg seven years ago -- to significantly reduce the loss of biodiversity by 2010.

Link:  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8301858.stm

M. Molina et al., PNAS, Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print October 12, 2009; doi: 10.1073/pnas.0902568106

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO₂ emissions

Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke*, K. Madhava Sarma, Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Donald Kaniaru

Edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, U.K., and approved August 31, 2009 (received for review March 9, 2009).

Abstract

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO₂ GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO₂ emissions. 

*Correspondence; e-mail: dzaelke@igsd.org or zaelke@inece.org

Link to abstract:  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/10/09/0902568106.abstract

NewScientist: Melting glaciers bring 1980s pollution revival in Lake Oberaar, Bern, Switzerland

Melting glaciers bring 1980s pollution revival

•   by Jessica Hamzelou, New Scientist, October 9, 2009

Bad hair and shoulder pads are not the only things from the 1980s that we'd rather not see again. Nasty chemicals banned in that decade are also on the list. Unfortunately, melting Alpine glaciers are generating a revival of toxic organic pollutants.

Christian Bogdal and colleagues at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich studied levels of pollution in sediment at the bottom of the Oberaar lake in Bern, Switzerland.

The flow of pollutants into the lake peaked in the 1970s, mainly due to the production of plastics, electronics, pesticides and fragrances. The levels declined during the 1980s and 1990s when people realised that these compounds were toxic and they were banned.

However, they found that banned chemicals, such as pesticides that have been linked with Parkinson's disease, have been pouring into the lake at an increasing rate since the 1990s.

Powerless observers

Bogdal reckons that a glacier feeding the lake has been storing these chemicals for decades, and is releasing them as it melts. This process could be dramatically sped up by global warming, he warns.

The problem isn't limited to Alpine glaciers. Since these chemicals would have been transported great distances via the atmosphere before they were frozen into ice, many other glaciers around the world may be contaminated. Toxic chemicals have previously been found in polar regions - putting arctic wildlife at risk.

There is little we can do about it, however. "Stopping global warming could slow the melting of glaciers, but the chemicals will still be released eventually," says Bogdal.

Many toxic chemicals are still used in plastics and electronic equipment, such as brominated flame retardants. Bogdal warns that these could represent the next generation's problem: "They are deposited on glaciers today and will reappear in our lakes in a few decades."

Journal reference: Environmental Science & Technology, DOI: 10.1021/es901628x

Link:  http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17956-melting-glaciers-bring-1980s-pollution-revival.html

Christian Bogdal et al., Environ. Sci. Tech., Blast from the past: Melting glaciers as a relevant source for persistent organic pollutants

Environmental Science & Technology (24 September 2009); DOI: 10.1021/es901628x

Blast from the past: Melting glaciers as a relevant source for persistent organic pollutants

Christian Bogdal*^†‡, Peter Schmid^‡, Markus Zennegg^‡, Flavio S. Anselmetti^§, Martin Scheringer^† and Konrad Hungerbühler^†

Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland; Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, Überlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland; Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, CH-8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland

Abstract

In this study, the hypothesis that melting Alpine glaciers may represent a secondary source of persistent organic chemicals is investigated. To this end, a dated sediment core from a glacier-fed lake (Lake Oberaar, Switzerland) was analyzed for a wide range of persistent organic pollutants, organochlorine pesticides, and synthetic musk fragrances. Input fluxes of all organochlorines increased in the 1950s, peaked in the 1960s−1970s, and decreased again to low levels in the 1980s−1990s. This observation reflects the emission history of these compounds and technical improvements and regulations leading to reduced emissions some decades ago. The input of synthetic musks remained at a high level in the 1950s−1990s, which is consistent with their relatively constant production throughout the second half of the 20th century. Since the late 1990s, input of all compound classes into the high-Alpine Lake Oberaar has increased sharply. Currently, input fluxes of organochlorines are similar to or even higher than in the 1960s−1970s. This second peak supports the hypothesis that there is a relevant release of persistent organic chemicals from melting Alpine glaciers. Considering ongoing global warming and accelerated massive glacier melting predicted for the future, our study indicates the potential for dire environmental impacts due to pollutants delivered into pristine mountainous areas.

* Corresponding author phone: +41 44 632 5951; e-mail: christian.bogdal@chem.ethz.ch.

†ETH Zurich.

‡Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research.

§Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology.

Link to abstract:  http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es901628x

Andrew Revkin of New York Times' Dot Earth blog censured the following comment -- gee, was it the mention of ExxonMobil?

Andy Revkin censured this comment -- it was not posted in spite of the fact that it was also sent to him by private e-mail:

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/climate-auditor-challenged-to-do-climate-science/?sort=oldest&offset=14

327 comments, but this one couldn't be published, do we need to wonder why?


Andy,

Why don't you post on what is really going on?

Why don't you post on how the fossil-fuel industry, especially ExxonMobil, gleefully uses McIntyre's anti-science to support their manipulation of the public opinion while distorting and lying about all real science?

Wendell Cox
Senior Fellow
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Maureen Martin
Senior Fellow for Legal Affairs
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Merrill Matthews Jr.
Senior Fellow
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Tom Roeser
Former Senior Fellow
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Roy E. Marden
Director
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Thomas Walton
Director
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Allen Fore
Vice President - Public Affairs
Source: Heartland Institute website 2004

Sean Parnell
Vice President - External Affairs
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Eugene Volokh
Policy Advisor
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Ronald D. Rotunda
Policy Advisor
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Sam Peltzman
Policy Advisor
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Robin A. Anderson
Policy Advisor
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

Roy W. Spencer
Contributing Writer
Source: Heartland Institute website 4/04

David H. Douglass
Contributing writer
Source: Heartland website 10/01/04

Sallie Baliunas
Writer
Source: Heartland Institute Website (2006)

Willie Soon
Writer
Source: Heartland Institute Website (2006)

Tim Ball, PhD
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Robert C. Balling Jr.
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Robert L. Bradley Jr.
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Randall Cerveny
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

John Christy
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Ian Clark
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Robert E. Davis
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Chris DeFreitas
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Myron Ebell
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Christopher Essex
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Indur M. Goklany
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Vincent Gray
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Kenneth Green
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

David R. Legates
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Marlo Lewis Jr.
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Henry R. Linden
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Richard Lindzen
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Bjorn Lomborg
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Ross McKitrick
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Patrick J. Michaels
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Iain Murray
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Tim Patterson, PhD
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Benny Peiser
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

S. Fred Singer
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

George H. Taylor
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

William M. Gray
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org Expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

William Kininmonth
HeartlandGlobalWarming.org expert
Source: Heartland Institute - HeartlandGlobalWarming.org

Robert J. Buford
Member, Board of Directors
Source: Heartland Institute Expert bio - Robert Buford

Bryan Leyland
Heartland paid (in part) for Leyland to attend UN Bali conference 2007
Source: The LIstener, New Zealand

owen mcshane
Speaker, Heartland New York Conference on Climate Change, March 2008. Paid to come to conference.
Source: Heartland New York Conference March 2008

Vincent Gray
Speaker, international conference on climate change, New York 2-4 March 2008
Source: Heartland New York Conference March 2008

Bob Carter
Speaker, Heartland conference, 2008. Paid by Heartland to attend event.
Source: Real Climate blog

END OF COMMENT

Data from:  http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=41

Heartland Institute has received $676,500 from ExxonMobil since 1998.

1997
$unknown Mobil Corporation
Source: Heartland material, present at 3/16/97 conference

1998
$30,000 ExxonMobil Corporate Giving
Source: Exxon Education Foundation Dimensions 1998 report

2000
$115,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
Climate Change
Source: ExxonMobil Foundation 2000 IRS 990

2001
$90,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
Source: ExxonMobil 2001 Worldwide Giving Report

2002
$15,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
Source: ExxonMobil 2002 Worldwide Giving Report

2003
$7,500 ExxonMobil Corporate Giving
19th Aniversary Benefit Dinner
Source: ExxonMobil 2003 Worldwide Giving Report

2003
$85,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
General Operating Support
Source: ExxonMobil 2003 Worldwide Giving Report

2004
$10,000 Exxon Corporation
Climate Change Activities
Source: ExxonMobil 2004 Worldwide Giving Report

2004
$15,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
Climate Change Efforts
Source: ExxonMobil 2004 Worldwide Giving Report

2004
$75,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
General Operating Support
Source: ExxonMobil 2004 Worldwide Giving Report

2005
$29,000 ExxonMobil Foundation
Source: ExxonMobil 2005 Worldwide Giving Report

2005
$90,000 ExxonMobil Corporate Giving
Source: ExxonMobil 2005 Worldwide Giving Report

2006
$90,000 ExxonMobil Corporate Giving
General Operating Support
Source: ExxonMobil 2006 Worldwide Giving Report

2006
$10,000 ExxonMobil Corporate Giving
Anniversary benefit dinner
Source: ExxonMobil 2006 Worldwide Giving Report

2006
$15,000 ExxonMobil Corporate Giving
general operating support
Source: ExxonMobil 2006 Worldwide Giving Report

psssssst! Readers! This is just the stuff publicly available in the annual report -- we can only imagine what else these obfuscators have been given.

BBC: Current 400 ppm CO2 levels equivalent to 25-40 m higher sea levels during the Miocene; should go back to 180-280 ppm

Scary' climate message from past

by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News, October 10, 2009

Data came from samples brought up by the drilling ship Joides Resolution

A new historical record of carbon dioxide levels suggests current political targets on climate may be "playing with fire," scientists say.

Researchers used ocean sediments to plot CO2 levels back 20 million years.

Levels similar to those now commonly regarded as adequate to tackle climate change were associated with sea levels 25-40 m (80-130 ft.) higher than today.

Scientists write in the journal Science that this extends knowledge of the link between CO2 and climate back in time.

The last 800,000 years have been mapped relatively well from ice cores drilled in Antarctica, where historical temperatures and atmospheric content have left a series of chemical clues in the layers of ice.

But looking back further has been more problematic; and the new record contains much more precise estimates of historical records than have been available before for the 20-million-year timeframe.

Sustained levels

The new research was able to look back to the Miocene period, which began a little over 20 million years ago.

At the start of the period, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere stood at about 400 parts per million (ppm) before beginning to decline about 14 million years ago -- a trend that eventually led to formation of the Antarctic icecap and perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic.

If anyone still doubts the link between CO2 and climate, they should read this paper Jonathan Overpeck University of Arizona

The high concentrations were probably sustained by prolonged volcanic activity in what is now the Columbia River basin of North America, where rock formations called flood basalts relate a history of molten rock flowing routinely onto the planet's surface.

In the intervening millennia, CO2 concentrations have been much lower; in the last few million years they cycled between 180 ppm and 280 ppm in rhythm with the sequence of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods.

Now, humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing towards the 400-ppm range, which will very likely be reached within a decade.

"What we have shown is that in the last period when CO2 levels were sustained at levels close to where they are today, there was no icecap on Antarctica and sea levels were 25-40 m higher," said research leader Aradhna Tripati from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).

"At CO2 levels that are sustained at or near modern day values, you don't need to have a major change in CO2 levels to get major changes in ice sheets," she told BBC News.

The elevated CO2 and sea levels were associated with temperatures about 3-6 °C (5-11 °F) higher than today.

No doubting

The data comes from the ratios of boron and calcium in the shells of tiny marine organisms called foraminifera.
The ratio indicates the pH of sea water at the time the organisms grew, which in turn allows scientists to calculate the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere.

The shell fragments came from cores drilled from the floor of the Pacific Ocean.

According to Jonathan Overpeck, who co-chaired the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) work on ancient climates for the organisation's last major report in 2007, this provides a more accurate look at how past CO2 values relate to climate than previous methods.

"This is yet another paper that makes the future look more scary than previously thought by many," said the University of Arizona scientist.

"If anyone still doubts the link between CO2 and climate, they should read this paper."

The new research does not imply that reaching CO2 levels this high would definitely result in huge sea level changes, or that these would happen quickly, Dr Tripati pointed out -- just that sustaining such levels on a long timescale might produce such changes.

"There aren't any perfect analogies in the past for climate change today or in the future," she said.
"We can say that we've identified past tipping points for ice sheet stability; the basic physics governing ice sheets that we've known from ice cores are extended further back, and... I think we should use our knowledge of the physics of climate change in the past to prepare for the future."

Averting danger

At the Rio Earth Summit of 1992, governments pledged to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."

What that level is has been the subject of intense debate down the years; but one figure currently receiving a lot of support is 450 ppm.

On Tuesday, for example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its prescription for tackling climate change, which sees concentrations of greenhouse gases peaking at the equivalent of 510 ppm of CO2 before stabilising at 450 ppm.

The Boxer-Kerry Bill, which has just entered the US Senate, also cites the 450 figure.

"Trouble is, we don't know where the critical CO2 or temperature threshold is beyond which ice sheet collapse is inevitable," said Dr Overpeck.

"It could be below 450 ppm, but it is more likely higher -- not necessarily a lot higher -- than 450 ppm.
"But what this new work suggests is that... efforts to stabilise at 450 ppm should avoid going up above that level prior to stabilisation -- that is, some sort of 'overshoot' above 450 ppm on the way to stabilisation could be playing with fire."

Because of concerns about short-term sea level rise, the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes low-lying countries such as The Maldives, Palau and Grenada, is pushing for adoption of the much lower figure of 350 ppm.

But with concentrations already substantially higher, political support for that is scanty outside AOSIS members.

Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.u

Link:  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299426.stm

CLIMATE CHANGE: Four Degrees of Devastation

CLIMATE CHANGE: Four Degrees of Devastation
 
by Stephen Leahy, ips.com, October 9, 2009

UXBRIDGE, Canada (IPS) -- The prospect of a 4 °C rise in global average temperatures in 50 years is alarming -- but not alarmist, climate scientists now believe.

Eighteen months ago, no one dared imagine humanity pushing the climate beyond an additional 2 °C of heating, but rising carbon emissions and inability to agree on cuts has meant science must now consider the previously unthinkable.

"Two degrees C is already gone as a target," said Chris West of the University of Oxford's UK Climate Impacts Programme.

"Four degrees C is definitely possible...This is the biggest challenge in our history," West told participants at the "4 Degrees and Beyond, International Climate Science Conference" at the University of Oxford last week.

A 4 °C overall increase means a world where temperatures will be two degrees warmer in some places, 12 degrees and more in others, making them uninhabitable.

It is a world with a 1-2 m sea level rise by 2100, leaving hundreds of millions homeless. This will head to 12 m in the coming centuries as the Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets melt, according to papers presented at the conference in Oxford.

Four degrees of warming would be hotter than any time in the last 30 million years, and it could happen as soon as 2060-2070.

"Political reality must be grounded in physical reality or it's completely useless," John Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told the conference.

Schellnhuber recently briefed U.S. officials from the Barack Obama administration, but he says they chided him that his findings were "not grounded in political reality" and that "the [U.S.] Senate will never agree to this."

He had told them that the U.S. must reduce its emissions from its current 20 tonnes of carbon per person average to zero tonnes per person by 2020 to have an even chance of stabilising the climate around 2 °C.

China's emissions must peak by 2020 and then go to zero by 2035 based on the current science, he added.

"Policymakers who agreed to a 2 °C goal at the G20 summit easily fool themselves about what emission cuts are needed," Schellnhuber said.

Even with a two-degree rise, most of the world's coral reefs will be lost, large portions of the ocean will become dead zones, mountain glaciers will largely vanish and many other ecosystems will be at risk, Schellnhuber warned. And there is the risk of reaching a tipping point where the warming rapidly accelerates.

The planet has already warmed 0.74 °C over the past century, and the warming is now increasing at a rate of 0.16 °C per decade, according the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report.

With 2008 emissions at the very top end of the IPCC's worst case estimates, it is time to look at what that may mean for the planet, said Richard Betts of the Climate Impacts research team at the Met Office Hadley Centre in London.

Continuing on the current high emissions path means average global temperatures would increase by 4.0-5.6 °C by 2090. Brazil, much of Canada, parts of the U.S., Siberia and Central Europe would be eight degrees warmer than in the past 50 years, computer models show. Rainfall in the north will increase but wet tropics will become 20% drier.

The models are based on human emissions alone, and do not include heat-amplifying feedbacks from melting ice or changes in carbon sinks. When those are factored in, it moves the timetable forward so that "reaching four degrees by 2060 is a plausible, worst-case scenario" with the median being 2070. By 2100, 5.5 degrees is possible, he said.

Few places would experience the global average temperature, Betts cautioned, noting that the computer models show the Arctic warming 15 degrees while many other regions of the world would experience 10 degrees of additional warming.

These scenarios do not include potential tipping points like the release of the 1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon in northern permafrost or the melting of undersea methane hydrates.

What would the world look like when it is four degrees warmer? It will likely mean one to two billion people will not have access to adequate fresh water because of the major shift in rainfall patterns, said Nigel Arnell, director of the Walker Institute for Climate Systems Research at the University of Reading in Britain.

Up to 15% of existing or potential cropland -- and 40% in Africa -- will become too dry and too hot for food production. While there might be some gains in northern areas like Canada and Russia, generally the soils there are not suitable for crops, he said.

Flooding will affect at least 500 million people because sea levels will rise more than one metre by 2100. The somewhat contentious issue of future sea level rise has been resolved with a new computer model that almost perfectly matches the historical changes in sea level since 1880, reported oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The new model projects sea level rise by 1.2-1.9 m from 1990 levels by 2100, said Rahmstorf.

"We're expecting a really big sea level rise in the longer run," he said.

Even at two or three degrees of warming, sea level will inevitably rise many metres higher in the centuries to come. The main questions are how fast levels will increase, and whether vulnerable countries like Holland can build seawalls fast enough to keep up with the rising water levels and the extraordinary costs involved, he said.

In a four-degree warmer world, adaptation means "put your feet up and die" for many people in the world, Oxford's Chris West said bluntly. "In accepting the many alarming impacts, we see that it (a 4 °C increase) is not acceptable."

The climate negotiators heading to Copenhagen in December must accept the fact that the world's carbon emissions must eventually stop -- and stop completely. There is no sustainable per capita carbon emission level because it is the total amount of carbon emitted that counts, explains Myles Allen of the Climate Dynamics group at University of Oxford's Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department.

Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for many centuries, which makes it the most important greenhouse gas to reduce and eliminate. The current focus on CO2 concentrations like 450 ppm or 350 ppm is the not the right approach since it is the total cumulative emissions that determine how warm the planet will get, Allen told the conference.

If climate negotiators only look at slowing rates of carbon emissions, then natural gas will be substituted for coal because it has half of the carbon -- but the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere will continue to increase.

"We didn't save the ozone layer by rationing deodorants," said Allen. 


Link:  http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=48791