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Tuesday, July 6, 2010

P. M. Cox et al., Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78(1-3) 137-156 (June 2004); doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4
P. M. Cox1, R. A. Betts1, M. Collins2, P. P. Harris3, C. Huntingford3 and C. D. Jones1

¹Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Research, Met Office, Exeter, U.K.
²Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, U.K.
³Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, U.K.


The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ldquobusiness as usualrdquo emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980thinspppmv by 2100, which is about 280thinspppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.

Received 28 March 2003; revised 16 August 2003; accepted 9 October 2003; published online 27 April 2004.


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