More than 100 scientists and economists call for rejection of Keystone XL tar sands pipeline

by Elizabeth Shope, NRDC, April 7, 2014

Today, more than 100 scientists and economists called on President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry to reject the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline that would bring some of the world’s dirtiest fuel from under Canada’s Boreal forest to the Gulf Coast mainly for export. They write in the letter, “The world is looking to the United States to lead through strong climate action at home. This includes rejecting projects that will make climate change worse such as the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline.” The letter comes at a critical time when President Obama and Secretary Kerry are in the process of making their determination about whether the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline is in the national interest. The signers of the letter are leaders in science and economics, including in climate change research. They added their voices to the 2 million public comments sent to President Obama and Secretary Kerry calling for a rejection of Keystone XL, and to the more than 200 business voices whose letter to Secretary Kerry calling for rejection of Keystone XL was released last week.  

The scientists and economists write to President Obama and Secretary Kerry:

As you both have made clear, climate change is a very serious problem. We must address climate change by decarbonizing our energy supply. A critical first step is to stop making climate change worse by tapping into disproportionately carbon-intensive energy sources like tar sands bitumen. The Keystone XL pipeline will drive expansion of the energy-intensive strip-mining and drilling of tar sands from under Canada’s Boreal forest, increasing global carbon emissions. Keystone XL is a step in the wrong direction.   

Fuels produced from tar sands cause 17% more greenhouse gas emissions than conventionally produced fuels over their full lifecycle, and, as the scientists note, “over the 50-year expected lifespan of the pipeline, the total emissions from Keystone XL could amount to as much as 8.4 billion metric tons CO2e. These are emissions that can and should be avoided with a transition to clean energy.” Tar sands extraction also causes significant air and water pollution; communities downstream are experiencing high rates of rare cancers and other health problems; transporting tar sands is risky; and refining tar sands causes pollution and public health problems.  

So it’s no wonder that so many prominent scientists and economists are expressing concern about this risky project. And it is not the first time that scientists have expressed concern with past letters to President Obama in August 2011, to Congressional Leadership in February 2012, and to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in July 2012. With this latest letter, the number of scientists speaking out has grown considerably.

The list of signers to this most recent scientist and economist letter includes:

• Dr. Philip W. Anderson, who won the 1977 Nobel Prize in Physics alongside Sir Nevill Francis Mott and John Hasbrouck van Vleck. They won the prize ”for their fundamental theoretical investigations of the electronic structure of magnetic and disordered systems.”
• Dr. Kenneth J. Arrow, who won the 1972 Nobel Prize in Economics (officially titled “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”) alongside John Hicks “for their pioneering contributions to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory.” Dr. Arrow has had a profound impact on the field of economics, going on to teach five other Nobel prize winners and receiving the National Medal of Science in 2004 – the nation’s highest scientific honor – for his contributions to the field. Dr. Arrow has also served as a convening lead author for IPCC assessments. 
• Numerous lead authors and coordinating lead authors for United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports.
• Fellows of the American Academy for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) including Dr. James McCarthy, Dr. Richard Norgaard, and Dr. Michael Oppenheimer, and Fellows of the Royal Society of Canada (FRSC) including Dr. Mark Jaccard, Dr. Lawrence Dill, and Dr. Mark Winston. AAAS indicates that “Election as a Fellow of AAAS is an honor bestowed upon members by their peers. Fellows are recognized for meritorious efforts to advance science or its applications.” Fellows of the Royal Society of Canada are “Canadian scholars, artists, and scientists, peer-elected as the best in their field. The fellowship of the RSC comprises distinguished men and women from all branches of learning who have made remarkable contributions in the arts, the humanities and the sciences, as well as in Canadian public life.”
• Winners of Heinz Awards in the Environment, and in the Human Condition – including Dr. Gretchen Daily, Drs. Paul and Anne Ehrlich, Dr. George Woodwell, Dr. James Hansen, and Dr. Michael Oppenheimer. The Heinz Award in the Human Condition “honors individuals who have developed and implemented significant new programs to improve the human condition,” while the Heinz Award in the Environment “honors individuals who like John Heinz, have confronted environmental concerns with a spirit of innovation and who demonstrate the same blend of action and creativity in approaching the protection of our environment.”
• Winners of the Volvo Environment Prize, which is awarded for “Outstanding innovations or scientific discoveries,” including Dr. Paul Ehrlich, who won it jointly with John Holdren (now President Obama’s senior advisor on science and technology issues) in 1993; Dr. George Woodwell (2001), and Gretchen Daily (2012).
• Leading Canadian scientists and economists including Dr. David Suzuki, a renowned geneticist and science broadcaster; Dr. Mark Jaccard, who has contributed a large body of research regarding the design and application of energy-economy models that assess the effectiveness of sustainable energy and climate policies, including serving as a convening lead author for the Global Energy Assessment; and  Dr. David Keith, 2006 winner of Canadian Geographic’s “Environmentalist of the Year” – who is both a Harvard Professor and President of a Calgary, Alberta, company that works on ways to capture carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.

This list does not even begin to touch the accomplishments, awards, and contributions to society of the scientists and economists who signed this letter. These are important voices for President Obama and Secretary Kerry to listen to. If you want to weigh in, you can add your voice at www.stoptar.org. You can also join NRDC, Sierra Club, 350.org and other groups in Washington, DC, on April 26, 2014, when we join with the Cowboy Indian Alliance to call on President Obama to Reject Keystone XL and protect our land, air, water, and climate.

Tar Sands Mine in Alberta, Canada. Credit: Jennifer Grant/The Pembina Institute.

The full letter text follows:

April 7, 2014

Dear President Obama and Secretary Kerry,

As scientists and economists, we are concerned about climate change and its impacts. We urge you to reject the Keystone XL tar sands oil pipeline as a project that will contribute to climate change at a time when we should be doing all we can to put clean energy alternatives in place.

As you both have made clear, climate change is a very serious problem. We must address climate change by decarbonizing our energy supply. A critical first step is to stop making climate change worse by tapping into disproportionately carbon-intensive energy sources like tar sands bitumen. The Keystone XL pipeline will drive expansion of the energy-intensive strip-mining and drilling of tar sands from under Canada’s Boreal forest, increasing global carbon emissions. Keystone XL is a step in the wrong direction.   

President Obama, you said in your speech in Georgetown last year that “allowing the Keystone pipeline to be built requires a finding that doing so would be in our nation’s interest. And our national interest will be served only if this project does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution.”

We agree that climate impact is important and evidence shows that Keystone XL will significantly contribute to climate change. Fuels produced from tar sands result in more greenhouse gas emissions over their lifecycle than fuels produced from conventional oil, including heavy crudes processed in some Gulf Coast refineries. As the main pathway for tar sands to reach overseas markets, the Keystone XL pipeline would cause a sizeable expansion of tar sands production and also an increase in the related greenhouse gas pollution. The State Department review confirmed this analysis under the scenario that best meets the reality of the opposition to alternative pipeline proposals and the higher costs of other ways of transporting diluted bitumen such as rail. The review found:

“The total lifecycle emissions associated with production, refining, and combustion of 830,000 bpd of oil sands crude oil is approximately 147 to 168 MMTCO2e per year. The annual lifecycle GHG emissions from 830,000 bpd of the four reference crudes examined in this section are estimated to be 124 to 159 MMTCO2e. The range of incremental GHG emissions for crude oil that would be transported by the proposed Project is estimated to be 1.3 to 27.4 MMTCO2e annually.”

To put these numbers into perspective, the potential incremental annual emissions of 27.4 MMTCO2e is more than the emissions that seven coal-fired power plants emit in one year. And over the 50-year expected lifespan of the pipeline, the total emissions from Keystone XL could amount to as much as 8.4 billion metric tons CO2e. These are emissions that can and should be avoided with a transition to clean energy.

The contribution of the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline to climate change is real and important, especially given the commitment of the United States and other world leaders to stay within two degrees Celsius of global warming. And yet, the State Department environmental review chose an inconsistent model for its “most likely” scenarios, using business-as-usual energy scenarios that would lead to a catastrophic six degrees Celsius rise in global warming.  Rejecting Keystone XL is necessary for the United States to be consistent with its climate commitments. Six degrees Celsius of global warming has no place in a sound climate plan.

Secretary Kerry, in your speech in Jakarta, you said, “The science of climate change is leaping out at us like a scene from a 3D movie – warning us – compelling us to act.” Rejecting the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline would be a decision based on sound science.

The world is looking to the United States to lead through strong climate action at home. This includes rejecting projects that will make climate change worse such as the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline. 

Sincerely,

John Abraham, Ph.D., Professor, University of St. Thomas

Philip W. Anderson, Ph.D., Nobel Prize (Physics 1977), Emeritus Professor, Princeton University

Tim Arnold, Ph.D., Assistant Project Scientist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Kenneth J. Arrow, Ph.D., Nobel Prize (Economics 1972), Professor emeritus of Economics and of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

Roger Bales, Ph.D., Professor of Engineering, University of California, Merced 

Paul H. Beckwith, M.S., Part-time professor: climatology/meteorology, Department of Geography, University of Ottawa

Anthony Bernhardt, Ph.D., Physicist and Program Leader (retired), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Damien C. Brady, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Marine Science, Darling Marine Center, University of Maine

Julie A. Brill, Ph.D., Director, Collaborative Program in Developmental Biology, and Professor, Department of Molecular Genetics, University of Toronto; Senior Scientist, Cell Biology Program, The Hospital for Sick Children

Gary Brouhard, Ph.D., Department of Biology, McGill University

Ken Caldeira, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, Carnegie Institution for Science

Grant Cameron, Ph.D., Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Shelagh D. Campbell, Ph.D., Professor, Biological Sciences, University of Alberta

Kai M. A. Chan, Ph.D., Associate Professor & Tier 2 Canada Research Chair (Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services), Graduate Advisor, RMES Institute for Resources, Environment & Sustainability, University of British Columbia

Eugene Cordero, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose State University

Rosemary Cornell, Ph.D., Professor, Molecular Biology and Biochemistry, Simon Fraser University

Gretchen C. Daily, Ph.D., Bing Professor of Environmental Science, Stanford University

Timothy Daniel, Ph.D., Economist, U.S. Federal Trade Commission

Miriam Diamond, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, Cross-appointed to: Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Sciences, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, School of the Environment, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto

Lawrence M. Dill, Ph.D., FRSC, Professor Emeritus, Simon Fraser University

Simon Donner, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia

Roland Droitsch, Ph.D., President, KM21 Associates

Nicholas Dulvy, Ph.D., Professor, Canada Research Chair in Marine Biodiversity and Conservation Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University

Steve Easterbrook, Ph.D., Professor of Computer Science, University of Toronto

Anne Ehrlich, Ph.D., Biology Department, Stanford University

Paul R. Ehrlich, Ph.D., Bing Professor of Population Studies and President, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University

Henry Erlich, Ph.D., Scientist, Center for Genetics, Children’s Hospital Research Institute

Alejandro Frid, Ph.D., Science Coordinator, Central Coast Indigenous Resource Alliance

Konrad Gajewski, Ph.D., Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Ottawa

Eric Galbraith, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University

Geoffrey Gearheart, Ph.D., Scientist, Center for Marine Biodiversity and Biomedicine, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Alexander J. Glass, Ph.D., Emeritus Associate Director, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

John R. Glover, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Biochemistry, University of Toronto

Ursula Goodenough, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis

Stephanie Green, Ph.D., David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow, Oregon State University

Steven Hackett, Ph.D., Professor of Economics, Associated Faculty, Energy Technology & Policy, Humboldt State University

Joshua B. Halpern, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Chemistry, Howard University

Alexandra Hangsterfer, M.S., Geological Collections Manager, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

James Hansen, Ph.D., Adjunct Professor, Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute

John Harte, Ph.D., Professor of Ecosystem Sciences, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley

H. Criss Hartzell, Ph.D., Professor, Emory University School of Medicine

Danny Harvey, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Geography, University of Toronto

Rodrick A. Hay, Ph.D., Dean and Professor of Geography, College of Natural and Behavioral Sciences, California State University Dominguez Hills

Karen Holl, Ph.D., Professor of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz

Robert Howarth, Ph.D., The David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology, Cornell University

Jonathan Isham, Jr., Ph.D., Professor of Economics, Middlebury College

Andrew Iwaniuk, Ph.D., Associate Professor, University of Lethbridge

Mark Jaccard, Ph.D., FRSC, Professor, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University

Louise E. Jackson, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California Davis

Pete Jumars, Ph.D., Professor of Marine Sciences, Darling Marine Center, University of Maine

David Keith, Ph.D., Gordon McKay Professor of Applied Physics, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS); and, Professor of Public Policy, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Jeremy T. Kerr, Ph.D., University Research Chair in Macroecology and Conservation, Professor of Biology, University of Ottawa

Bryan Killett, Ph.D., Jet Propulsion Lab

Keith W. Kisselle, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Biology & Environmental Science, Academic Chair of Center for Environmental Studies, Austin College

Janet E. Kübler, Ph.D., Senior Research Scientist, California State University at Northridge

Sherman Lewis, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Political Science, California State University Hayward

Michael E. Loik, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz

Michael C. MacCracken, Ph.D., Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, Climate Institute

Scott A. Mandia, M.S., Professor/Asst. Chair, Department of Physical Sciences, Suffolk County Community College

Michael Mann, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor and Director of Earth System Science Center, Penn State University

Adam Martiny, Ph.D., Associate Professor in Marine Science, Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine

Damon Matthews, Ph.D., Associate Professor and Concordia University Research Chair, Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University

James J. McCarthy, Ph.D., Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography, Harvard University

Susan K. McConnell, Ph.D., Susan B. Ford Professor, Dunlevie Family University Fellow, Department of Biology, Stanford University

Dominick Mendola, Ph.D., Senior Development Engineer, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Faisal Moola, Ph.D., Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto; and, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University

William Moomaw, Ph.D., Professor, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Jens Mühle, Dr. rer. nat., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Richard B. Norgaard, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Energy and Resources, University of California, Berkeley

Gretchen North, Ph.D., Professor of Biology, Occidental College

Dana Nuccitelli, M.S., Environmental Scientist, Tetra Tech, Inc.

Michael Oppenheimer, Ph.D., Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs, Princeton University

Wendy J. Palen, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University

Edward A. Parson, Ph.D., Dan and Rae Emmett Professor of Environmental Law, Faculty Co-Director, Emmett Center on Climate Change and the Environment, UCLA School of Law

Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, Ph.D., Louis Block Professor in the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago

Richard Plevin, Ph.D., Research Scientist, NextSTEPS (Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways), Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

John Pollack, M.S., Meteorologist; and, National Weather Service forecaster (retired)

Jessica Dawn Pratt, Ph.D., Education & Outreach Coordinator, Center for Environmental Biology, University of California, Irvine

Lynne M. Quarmby, Ph.D., Professor & Chair, Molecular Biology & Biochemistry, Simon Fraser University

Rebecca Rolph, M.S., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and, Klimacampus, University of Hamburg

Thomas Roush, MD, Columbia University School of Public Health (retired)

Maureen Ryan, Ph.D., Research Associate, Simon Fraser University; and, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Washington

Anne K. Salomon, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University

Casey Schmidt, Ph.D., Assistant Research Professor, Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences

Peter C. Schulze, Ph.D., Professor of Biology & Environmental Science, Director, Center for Environmental Studies, Austin College

Jason Scorse, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Monterrey Institute of International Studies, Middlebury College

Jamie Scott, MD, Ph.D., Professor and Canada Research Chair, Department of Molecular Biology & Biochemistry, Faculty of Science and Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University

Michael A. Silverman, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University

Leonard S. Sklar, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Earth & Climate Sciences Department, San Francisco State University

Jerome A. Smith, Ph.D., Research Oceanographer, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Richard C. J. Somerville, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor Emeritus and Research Professor, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Brandon M. Stephens, M.S., Graduate Student Researcher, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

John M. R. Stone, Ph.D., Adjunct Professor, Carleton University

David Suzuki, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Sustainable Development Research Institute, University of British Columbia

Jennifer Taylor, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, University of California, San Diego

Michael S. Tift, M.S., Doctoral Student, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Cali Turner Tomaszewicz, M.S., Doctoral Student, Biological Sciences, Department of Ecology, Behavior & Evolution, University of California, San Diego

Till Wagner, Ph.D., Scientist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Barrie Webster, Ph.D., Professor (retired), University of Manitoba

Richard Weinstein, Ph.D., Lecturer, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Anthony LeRoy Westerling, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Environmental Engineering and Geography, University of California, Merced 

Mark L. Winston, Ph.D., FRSC, Academic Director and Fellow, Center for Dialogue, Simon Fraser University

George M. Woodwell, Ph.D., Member, National Academy of Sciences, and Founder and Director Emeritus, The Woods Hole Research Center 

Kirsten Zickfeld, Ph.D., Professor of Climatology, Simon Fraser University

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