"Linking interannual variability in extreme Greenland blocking episodes to the recent increase in summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet," by J. T. McLeod & T. L. Mote, International Journal of Climatology, 19 July 2015: doi: 10.1002/joc.4440

International Journal of Climatology, 19 July 2015; doi: 10.1002/joc.4440

Linking interannual variability in extreme Greenland blocking episodes to the recent increase in summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet

Jordan T. McLeod and Thomas L. Mote

Abstract

Atmospheric blocking commonly occurs over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting from the development of persistent areas of high pressure that lead to warmer-than-average surface temperatures west of the high centre. While the variability and trends in anticyclonic circulation patterns (including blocking) over Greenland have been previously documented, an analysis of the most extreme blocking events within the observational record is lacking. In this study, a historical climatology of extreme Greenland blocking episodes (GBEs) from 1958 to 2013 is examined within the context of anomalous anticyclonic circulation patterns over the North Atlantic region during recent years. Based on a combination of the ERA-40 (1958–1978) and ERA-Interim (1979–2013) reanalysis data sets, the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) is used to quantify 500-hPa geopotential-height anomalies for the identification of extreme GBEs. The annual rate of extreme blocking days has doubled since 1958, reaching an average of approximately 20 days per year by 2013. The frequency and, to some extent, duration of extreme GBEs were unprecedentedly high from 2007 to 2013 compared to the 56-year period of record, with a majority of the increase occurring during the spring (MAM) and summer (JJA). A multiple linear regression analysis reveals that interannual variability in extreme blocking and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are the two predominant drivers of surface meltwater production across the entire Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), but Arctic sea ice extent and North Atlantic cyclone activity can also influence the extent of summer melting over portions of the GrIS. Thus, in addition to the larger-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability, smaller-scale features such as extratropical cyclones can play a significant role in modulating GrIS surface melting each summer.

Key words: atmospheric blocking, Greenland ice sheet, extratropical cyclones, North Atlantic, Arctic amplification, cryosphere, Arctic sea ice, climate change

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4440/abstract