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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Joann D. Haigh et al., Nature 467 (2010), An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate

Nature 467, 696-699 (7 October 2010); doi: 10.1038/nature09426; Received 16 February 2010; Accepted 15 August 2010; Published online 6 October 2010

An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate

Joanna D. Haigh1,*, Ann R. Winning1, Ralf Toumi1 and Jerald W. Harder2
  1. Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
  2. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80303-7814, USA
The thermal structure and composition of the atmosphere is determined fundamentally by the incoming solar irradiance. Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions—specifically those producing stratospheric ozone—and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth’s surface1. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum2. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2µm and 2.4µm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite3 since April 2004, have revealed4 that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45km, with an increase above this altitude. Our results, simulated with a radiative-photochemical model, are consistent with contemporaneous measurements of ozone from the Aura-MLS satellite, although the short time period makes precise attribution to solar effects difficult. We also show, using the SIM data, that solar radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. Currently there is insufficient observational evidence to validate the spectral variations observed by SIM, or to fully characterize other solar cycles, but our findings raise the possibility that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.


Snozzle said...

Where did they source their mean temperature data from? If it has been subject to the adjustments that the contrarians have talked about, that could affect the conclusions of this study, could it not? Or shouldn't I ask this question? I note that this study appears to falsify the emerging theory of cosmic influence on climate which postulates that less solar wind equals more cosmic rays hitting the lower atmosphere, creating more low cloud and cooling the planet (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997; Svensmark, 1998).

Tenney Naumer said...

This is a very preliminary study using data from a very short time period.

In the coming years, as the science in this area progresses, I would imagine that if they find a significant influence then climate modellers would incorporate it into their computer models.

None of this negates the fact that it is getting warmer and will get increasingly warmer as anthropogenic CO2 and CO2 equivalents increase in the atmosphere.