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Friday, January 11, 2019

How fast are the oceans warming? doi: 10.1126/science.aav7619

Science, 363(6423) (11 Jan 2019) 128-129; doi: 10.1126/science.aav7619

How fast are the oceans warming?

Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Zeke Hausfather, and Kevin Trenberth


Climate change from human activities mainly results from the energy imbalance in Earth's climate system caused by rising concentrations of heat-trapping gases. About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC). The ocean record of this imbalance is much less affected by internal variability and is thus better suited for detecting and attributing human influences (1) than more commonly used surface temperature records. Recent observation-based estimates show rapid warming of Earth's oceans over the past few decades (see the figure) (12). This warming has contributed to increases in rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, the destruction of coral reefs, declining ocean oxygen levels, and declines in ice sheets; glaciers; and ice caps in the polar regions (34). Recent estimates of observed warming resemble those seen in models, indicating that models reliably project changes in OHC.

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