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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

David Spratt, CCR: review of The Politics of Climate Change (2nd edn.) by Anthony Giddens

From the review of The Politics of Climate Change (2nd edn.) by Anthony Giddens

by David Spratt, Climate Code Red blog, May 16, 2012

... Many specialists in the field view recent climate change policies as far from ambitious. Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute, who has been climate adviser to both Chancellor Merkel and the European Union, and has been engaged in international climate politics for many years, says that “we are on our way to a destabilisation of the world climate that has advanced much further than most people or their governments realise.” He observes that "if political reality (on climate) is not grounded in physical reality, it is useless,” as we mournfully witness.

Last year, Schellnhuber told the “4 degrees or more: Australia in a hot world” conference in Melbourne that there were limits to what the policymakers could bear to hear. “If you speak the inconvenient truth, people will not listen,” said Schellnhuber, adding that if you are too frank, you “risk losing everything.”

This is why climate politics is characterised by cognitive dissonance, a delusion about the scale and urgency of the problem that allows policymakers and advocates at both a national and global level to continue to engage in the fantasy that they are working to contain global warming to a “reasonable” two degrees Celsius. In fact, the lack of action means we are now headed to around four degrees of warming this century (and a probable carrying capacity of the planet of under one billion people), whereas a safe target is under one degree. That the delusional character of climate policy-making makes no appearance in a title the publishers claim to be “the only book that looks at the political issues posed by global warming” is disturbing. At the heart of this work, I sense a void.

NASA climate chief James Hansen convincingly argues that the goal of “limiting human-made warming to two degrees (is a) prescription for disaster” because today, at less than one degree of warming, we are “poised such that additional warming instigates large amplifying high-latitude feedbacks” will come into play in the next one degree of warming. These will make “ice sheet disintegration and large sea level rise inevitable”* amongst many devastating impacts. This is not part of the today’s climate policy frame.

The problem, quite simply, is that what needs to be done cannot be achieved by contemporary politics in today’s deregulated capitalist economies, so the ruling elites have chosen to live a lie. They create the appearance of solving the problem, when they are not. Giddens says he accepts “up to a point” that “coping with climate change is too difficult a problem to be dealt with within the confines of orthodox politics,” but does not follow up on this observation.

Take the emissions reductions necessary to keep warming in the long run to a safe level of under one degree. Hansen shows that fossil fuel emissions would need to be cut by 6% a year beginning in 2012, plus 100 billion tonnes of carbon reforestation drawdown in the 2031-2080 period, if the world is to be back to the one-degree target by century’s end. If global emissions do not peak till 2020, then to limit warming to the (unsafe) two-degree range, the rate of emissions reduction hits 9-10% a year, and requires total de-carbonisation by 2035-45.

By comparison, emissions reductions of more than one percent a year have been pushed, in the words of the Stern Report, only by “recession or upheaval.” The commentator David Roberts notes: “The total collapse of the USSR knocked five percent off its emissions. So 10% a year is like … well, it’s not like anything in the history of human civilisation” (2011: online). This is the core driver of the climate policy delusion: those at the centre of the process believe they cannot do what is necessary, but (as yet) haven’t been game to admit it in public.

The politics is this: we have to do something we have never done before and quickly create a decarbonised economy, a rapid whole-of-society transition. Not possible, say most of those in power. But there are examples of very quick social and economic change, both under the current (ostensibly) communist leadership in China, and in the evolution of the Asian “tiger” economies where a strong state and a capitalist elite transformed the character and economies of nations such as Singapore and South Korea in short periods. It can be done, by strong state intervention and planning, and constraining unnecessary consumption to free resources for investment. In the climate case, it would also require stranding a lot of capital embedded in obsolete, fossil-dependent technologies, and reshaping how and where we live, travel and maintain food and water security. But in the cases cited here, democracy hasn’t been a strong point.

There is no political model of how this could be achieved in the advanced capitalist nations (except for the war economy of 1939-1945), nor the timeframe to overturn capitalism en masse before starting the process. The plethora of rapid transition plans that have appeared in the last few years are strong on the technology and the financing, but weak on the politics, because none of us have found a practical way out of the political dead-end in which climate policy is trapped.

Giddens observes that we need to “generate widespread political support from citizens,” but how is that to be done when that support must necessarily be for radical change and significant dislocation in peoples’ lives in the developed economies? In the 1939-1945 war, stern measures including rationing were accepted by the population because they were seen to be fair and necessary. Perhaps we need to convince people once again that the path we must go down will be difficult but worthwhile (because the other option is ecocide), that strong, democratic state management in a rapid transition to a post-carbon future is “fair and necessary.”

The choice is between some significant disruptions now while we make the transition quickly, or a state of permanent and escalating disruption as the planet’s climate heads into territory where most people and most species will not survive. Our task now is to chart the “least-worst” outcome; delaying action for three decades has now made climate, in bureaucratic terms, a “wicked problem.” ...

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