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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Eric J. Steig et al., Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year


Nature 457, 459-462 (22 January 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature07669; Received 14 January 2008; Accepted 1 December 2008

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

Eric J. Steig1, David P. Schneider2, Scott D. Rutherford3, Michael E. Mann4, Josefino C. Comiso5 & Drew T. Shindell6

  1. Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
  3. Department of Environmental Science, Roger Williams University, Bristol, RI, USA
  4. Department of Meteorology, and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
  5. NASA Laboratory for Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
  6. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA

Correspondence and requests for materials: Eric J. Steig1 (e-mail:

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades1. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone2. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

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