Blog Archive

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Fun (NOT!) Weather Facts about Greenland

Today, November 17, 2007 (a time of year that one could assume would be fairly cold in a place as far north as Greenland), in its capital city, Nuuk (also known as Godthab), the high was 50°F at 5:50 p.m., and it was RAINING!!! Raining in the winter in the polar regions in the evening after the sun had gone down. (Sorry, but after having lived near Lake Michigan for three years, I do not consider the month of November to be an autumn month in the high northern latitudes.) (BLOGGER'S NOTE OF NOVEMBER 29: this effect of warm, wet air going up to Greenland appears to be partly due to a normal, periodic change in the Arctic Oscillation, but I am not a meteorologist so I could be completely wrong about that assumption.)

So here is what Wikipedia says the average temperatures are for Nuuk:

"Nuuk has a moderate polar climate with a yearly average temperature of -1°C. 18°C is exceeded on average only once per year, with 24.2°C being the highest recorded temperature and -29.5°C being the lowest."

For the centigrade-impaired, I will translate:

"Nuuk has a moderate polar climate (NOTE THE ADJECTIVE: "polar") with a yearly average temperature of 30.2°F. 64.4°F is exceeded on average only once per year, with 75.6°F being the highest recorded temperature and -21.1°F being the lowest."

And the weather report for today:

Godthab, Greenland.
Latitude: 64.18 N.
Longitude: -51.75 W.
Average elevation: 1 m.
Station reporting: NUUK (GODTHAAB) at 2.22 km from Godthab. Elevation: 84 m.
Current Weather Report at 5:50 p.m., local time:
Relative Humidity: 82%
Wind: SSE at 67 km/h; 104 km/h gusts
Visibility: > 10000 m
Pressure: 999.0 mb
More Details:
Drizzle
Scattered clouds at 180 m Broken clouds at 580 m
Broken clouds at 760 m

(Current weather conditions: click here.)


And, here is a nice little table that shows the average monthly temperatures for Nuuk (from Wikipedia) -- the data-tables-challenged can just skip to the text below the table, and the numerically-impaired can skip to the second paragraph below the table, if they can find it:

Climatic Table (°C, mm)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
Nuuk -4.4 -4.5 -4.8 -0.8 3.5 7.7 10.6 9.9 6.3 1.7 -1.0 -3.3 1.74 Mean Daily High
-10.1 -10.6 -10.6 -6.1 -1.5 1.3 3.8 3.8 1.6 -2.5 -5.8 -8.7 -3.89 Mean Daily Low
39 47 50 46 55 62 82 89 88 70 74 54 756 Precipitation

Notice that the average high temp for November is -1.0°C (or, 30.2°F, just below freezing). But, today, in the dark evening, the temperature was 10°C (11 degrees C higher than the average) or 50°F (or about 20 degrees F above the average).

Now, what can one day tell us about weather, climate, climate change, or global warming? --- NEXT TO NOTHING!!!

But I sure as hell wish it would stop raining there and just go back to freezing.

Here is the Weather Channel's North Pole satellite map. This weather map changes daily.

North Pole Satellite

We Need a 21st Century Winston Churchill: Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and climate change

.
There need be only three people convinced of the urgent need to take action on global warming, and those three people are Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, and Bill Gates.

They need to be so thoroughly convinced that they come out in public and speak loud and long on the need for the entire United States to mobilize itself to put all of its creative energy into action to ameliorate and prepare for the effects of global warming.

Those three all know what a sunk cost is, even if the general public doesn't. It makes no difference whatsoever what caused the warming already in the system.

The point is, what are we going to do about it?

Going, going, gone? Greenland's ice sheet is no longer in balance.



"Inland ice as seen from a helicopter, near Ilulissat in Greenland."

Do you see the black spots in the photograph that are pockmarking the landscape? A few short years ago, they were not there. They are called "moulins," and they are holes in the ice sheet where the melt water disappears deep underground. Scientists have found that, via these channels, the melt water is travelling some 2 km to the bottom of the ice sheet to the bedrock where it collects. For example, a lake of water 500 meters deep was discovered under the Ilulissat Glacier. This immense amount of water is acting as a lubricant, causing the glacier to flow faster to the ocean. (The Ilulissat is possibly the fastest moving glacier in the world, discharging icebergs at a rate of some 2 meters per hour or 17,500 kilometers per year. However, this summer, an extraordinary event occurred -- in an hour and a half, 5 km surged out, proving that glaciers need not move along at a snail's pace.) The ice sheets and the glaciers are moving so fast now that annual snowfall cannot replace the amount of ice being lost, as it had been doing up until recent years.

Now, the old logic was this: The Greenland Ice Sheet is so thick that it will just melt on the top, and so this will take thousands of years. Sounds reasonable to me. No one could have guessed that the melt water would find its way to the bottom of the ice. Then, the moulins began to appear. Initially, there were not so many of them. Just tens of them. Then hundreds. Now, there are thousands of them. This all occurred within a decade, which on the geological timescale, is about a microsecond or less.

And, would you believe that Greenland is not the most serious problem in this regard? No, no, the more serious problem is down there in Antarctica. That thing can't melt, can it? Too cold down there, isn't it? And it is snowing a lot more down there, too, isn't it, so, in fact, the ice sheet down there is increasing, not decreasing, isn't it?

Ah, but did you know that the bedrock on which Antarctica's western ice shelf is resting just happens to be way the hell under sea level (see image)? Hmm, so what? Well, we know that the temperature of the ocean water that moves past it is rising. Not only this, but the speed of the waves is increasing, as is the speed of the winds. But, you might say, this ice is already underwater, and ice takes up more space than water, so if it melts, the sea level will go down, not up, won't it? Good thinking -- if not for that fact that if the ice shelf breaks off and floats away, there will be nothing left to buttress the ice sheet behind it, and it will be highly likely to move at a greatly accelerated pace to the ocean -- just like pulling the cork out of a champagne bottle (perhaps that is exaggerating a bit, but I think you get the picture).

Below, from JPL: "NASA's QuikScat satellite detected extensive areas of snowmelt, shown in yellow and red, in west Antarctica in January 2005." Click on the image to enlarge it.












Left: a graphic rendition of the layers of Antarctica, by JPL. Click on the graphic to enlarge it.



YouTube videos of NASA's Dr. James Hansen explaining the problems:






Below is a badly written article about the recent findings on the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Greenland ice cap melting faster than expected

COPENHAGEN (AFP) — The ice cap in the northern hemisphere is melting a lot more rapidly that scientists thought, according to new research published Thursday by the Danish National Space Center.

"Until 2004, the glacier mass in the southeastern part of the island lost about 50 to 100 cubic kilometres (12 to 24 cubic miles) per year. After this date, the melting rate accelerated to 300 cubic kilometres per year. It's a jump of 400 percent, which is very worrying," National Space Center head researcher and project chief Abbas Khan told AFP.

The ice cap, located in Greenland, is melting four times more rapidly than at the beginning of the decade according to the study. Glaciers in southeastern Greenland release icebergs into the sea, corresponding to a giant ice cube measuring 6.5 kilometres (4 miles) per side. (BLOGGER'S NOTE: the author of this news article neglected to mention that this 6.5 cubic kilometers is the total volume of the glaciers' outflow per year, and the melting figures are for the ice sheet itself -- what the glaciers output is in addition to this melting of the ice sheet.)

"It's an alarming development," Khan said. "We do not know if it is due to global warming or other factors."

The results of the study were made in conjunction with US-based University of Colorado and published Thursday on an online edition of Geophysical Research Letters magazine. (BLOGGER'S NOTE: Geophysical Research Letters is not a "magazine." It is an academic journal containing peer-reviewed, scientific research articles.)

The researchers measured ice melt with ultra-sensitive Global Positioning Systems (GPS) stations located in the mountains and along the ice cap.

The measurements indicated that the mountains hugging glaciers in the southeastern part of Greenland rose four to five centimetres (1.5 to two inches) per year, and that the banks of the glaciers thinned 100 metres per year. (BLOGGER'S NOTE: It would have been nice if the author had mentioned the banks' surface area. The mountains are "rising" because they had been "depressed" by the weight of the ice. So much ice is melting that the bedrock underneath the ice sheet is "springing" back up.)

The Greenland ice cap measures 1.7 million square kilometres (656,000 square miles) and is 3.2 kilometres (two miles) thick.

BLOGGER:
I found the proposed declaration, below, on a website of a global climate change skeptic. He attributed its authorship to Dr. James Hansen. He accuses Dr. Hansen of being an advocate and not a scientist. Excuse me, but where is it written that scientists cannot be advocates. Jeez! If they cannot be advocates for the Earth, then who can?

Declaration for our presidential candidates to sign:

"Whereas, the climate system is nearing tipping points with likely devastating consequences for much of creation;

Whereas, the responsibility of the United States for excess CO2 in the air exceeds that of any other nation by more than a factor of three;

Whereas, the rest of the world cannot be expected to take needed actions until the United States exercises responsibility and leadership;

Whereas, some lawmakers and executives in the United States appear to be unduly swayed by special interests;

It therefore becomes important for citizens to be keenly aware of the position regarding global warming of all candidates for election."

Rising Seas Threaten U.S. Historical Sites, 24 September 2007, AP

BLOGGER'S NOTE: If you have been following the most recent scientific studies of Greenland and Antarctica, you will notice that there is nothing non-factual or hysterical about the following article.

From today's FoxNews website:


Rising Seas Threaten U.S. Historical Sites

Ultimately, rising seas will likely swamp the first American settlement in Jamestown, Va., as well as the Florida launch pad that sent the first American into orbit, many climate scientists are predicting.

In about a century, some of the places that make America what it is may be slowly erased.

Global warming — through a combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters expanding — is expected to cause oceans to rise by one meter, or about 39 inches.

It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases, several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation.

Rising waters will lap at the foundations of old money Wall Street and the new money towers of Silicon Valley. They will swamp the locations of big city airports and major interstate highways.

Storm surges worsened by sea level rise will flood the waterfront getaways of rich politicians — the Bushes' Kennebunkport and John Edwards' place on the Outer Banks. Gone will be many of the beaches in Texas and Florida favored by budget-conscious students on Spring Break.


That's the troubling outlook projected by coastal maps reviewed by The Associated Press. The maps, created by scientists at the University of Arizona, are based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

• Click here for the University of Arizona climate-change mapping Web site.

Few of the more than two dozen climate experts interviewed disagree with the one-meter projection. Some believe it could happen in 50 years, others say 100, and still others say 150.

Sea level rise is "the thing that I'm most concerned about as a scientist," says Benjamin Santer, a climate physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.

"We're going to get a meter and there's nothing we can do about it," said University of Victoria climatologist Andrew Weaver, a lead author of the February report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Paris. "It's going to happen no matter what — the question is when."

Sea level rise "has consequences about where people live and what they care about," said Donald Boesch, a University of Maryland scientist who has studied the issue. "We're going to be into this big national debate about what we protect and at what cost."

This week, beginning with a meeting at the United Nations on Monday, world leaders will convene to talk about fighting global warming. At week's end, leaders will gather in Washington with President Bush.

Experts say that protecting America's coastlines would run well into the billions and not all spots could be saved.

It's not just a rising ocean that is the problem. With it comes an even greater danger of storm surge, from hurricanes, winter storms and regular coastal storms, Boesch said. Sea level rise means higher and more frequent flooding from these extreme events, he said.

All told, one meter of sea level rise in just the lower 48 states would put about 25,000 square miles under water, according to Jonathan Overpeck, director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona. That's an area the size of West Virginia.

The amount of lost land is even greater when Hawaii and Alaska are included, Overpeck said.

The Environmental Protection Agency's calculation projects a land loss of about 22,000 square miles. The EPA, which studied only the Eastern and Gulf coasts, found that Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Texas and South Carolina would lose the most land. But even inland areas like Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia also have slivers of at-risk land, according to the EPA.

This past summer's flooding of subways in New York could become far more regular, even an everyday occurrence, with the projected sea rise, other scientists said. And New Orleans' Katrina experience and the daily loss of Louisiana wetlands — which serve as a barrier that weakens hurricanes — are previews of what's to come there.

Florida faces a serious public health risk from rising salt water tainting drinking water wells, said Joel Scheraga, the EPA's director of global change research. And the farm-rich San Joaquin Delta in California faces serious salt water flooding problems, other experts said.

"Sea level rise is going to have more general impact to the population and the infrastructure than almost anything else that I can think of," said S. Jeffress Williams, a U.S. Geological Survey coastal geologist in Woods Hole, Mass.

Even John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, a scientist often quoted by global warming skeptics, said he figures the seas will rise at least 16 inches by the end of the century. But he tells people to prepare for a rise of about three feet just in case.

Williams says it's "not unreasonable at all" to expect that much in 100 years. "We've had a third of a meter in the last century."

The change will be a gradual process, one that is so slow it will be easy to ignore for a while.

"It's like sticking your finger in a pot of water on a burner and you turn the heat on, Williams said. "You kind of get used to it."

Greenland Ice Sheet, Glaciers 2007, II

Greenland is now a country fit for broccoli growers

The climate is changing so quickly that a land of hunters is becoming one of farmers and fearful scientists

by Isabel Hilton in Qassiarsuk, published in The Guardian online, Friday, 14 September 2007

After a summer of catastrophic flooding in Britain, it would be encouraging to see the conference season as an opportunity for British politicians to move from the highly rhetorical to the real in their climate change policies. The reaction of some Conservatives, however, to the relatively modest suggestion that airport expansion in Britain should be halted, or that those who pollute should pay, is a reminder that there are still people who suffer from the delusion that doing nothing on climate is an option, or that inaction will somehow guarantee that things stay the same. Eric Rode Frederiksen knows different.

Eric is rotund, white-haired - and clear-eyed on the subject of climate change. He was born 80 years ago in the village of Qassiarsuk in Subarctic Greenland, where an earlier Eric, the Nordic Viking Eric the Red, first established a colony in the 10th century.

One legend has it that Eric was so desperate to entice others to join him that he lied about the inhospitable nature of the vast island of rocky mountains and deep valleys. He sent word that he had found a "green land" fit for settlement. Fifteen ships did follow him, and the Viking settlement lasted nearly 500 years.

The legend does Eric a disservice. The slopes the Vikings settled were, indeed, green, and the accumulated topsoil testifies to long periods of fertility in the past. Eric and his people farmed sheep and grew potatoes, supplementing their diets with fishing and hunting. It was when the climate cooled, 400 years later, narrowing the margin of possible agriculture in southern Greenland to zero, that the Viking settlement failed and farming disappeared for 500 years. In the 20th century, Eric Rode Frederikse's father became the first Greenlander since the Vikings to give sheep farming another go. Today, 65 families are making a living as farmers in southern Greenland, the growing season is a month longer than before, and people have begun to plant little gardens. This summer, they tasted their first Greenland-grown broccoli.

As the Vikings failed in the south, in north Greenland the Inuit were thriving, equipped with effective technology and the hunting skills needed to live off the rich Arctic animal life. But two years ago, for the first time, the Greenland government had to fly dog food to the far north, emergency relief for the starving hunting dogs of the Arctic Circle. Today, Greenland's Inuit hunting communities are facing extinction.

The uneven effects of climate change are not lost on the Greenlanders. If the ice loss is a disaster for the Arctic hunters, Greenland as a whole is sitting, literally, on a gold mine. The gold is already being mined, and other resources are beckoning from the melting ice fields. Oil majors are quartering the territory, looking for fresh supplies. The aluminium giant, Alcoa, is negotiating to open three smelters in Greenland to take advantage of a bonanza in hydro-electric power. In settlements inside the Arctic Circle, where thousands of dogs still sit tethered and restless, waiting for ice that no longer comes, Greenlanders are about to be catapulted into an industrial age.

They have little choice but to adapt. In the Arctic, the mirror of life for the rest of the planet, things are now changing at a dizzying pace that far outstrips the cautious estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or even the expert assessments of the Arctic Council. For instance, the sea around Ilulissat, the biggest town in Arctic Greenland, always froze between December and the end of May. It has not frozen at all for the last three years. The IPCC predicted an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century; some scientists now predict it for 2020. Ten years ago, it was thought that the Greenland ice cap - 11,000 feet high in some places - would take centuries to melt. Now, the pace of melting of the ice cap, and the unpredictable interaction of the feedback loops such melting may trigger, makes any firm prediction hazardous. In Greenland they know human civilisation is already entering unknown territory.

Robert Corell, a US-based Arctic scientist and member of the IPCC, described what he had found three weeks ago on a visit to the ice cap. "I spent four months on the ice cap in 1968 and there was no melting at all," he told participants in the Symposium on Religion, Science and Environment in Greenland this week. "Now it's dramatic. There are thousands of moulins - holes that go down into the ice. You can hear water roaring and gurgling. Nobody knows now how quickly it will melt, but the palaeo-data tells us that at three degrees warmer than at present, the ice cap will melt. The projections for global temperature increases are now between three and four degrees."

Greenlanders have waited a long time for prosperity and, bizarrely, climate change may bring it, ending the need for the present annual subsidy from Denmark of $10,500 a year for each of Greenland's 55,000 inhabitants - equivalent to roughly half the Greenland national budget. Future economic promise is fuelling an independence movement; but for the rest of the world, Greenland's melting ice threatens catastrophe. So vast is the Greenland ice sheet that it works as a regional air conditioner. The albedo effect - the reflection of 80% of the sun's heat by the snow and ice - keeps temperatures in the region cool. But as the ice melts, the dark seas and the bare rock surface absorb heat, further accelerating melting and triggering sea level rises that will inundate, among other places, the Nile Delta, much of San Francisco and 40% of Bangladesh.

Arctic scientists are having to tear up their recent predictions and start again. "This is all unprecedented in the science," Corell explains. "Until recently we didn't believe it possible, for instance, for water to permeate a glacier all the way to the bottom. But that's what's happening. As the water pools, it opens more areas of ice to melting."

"For the last 10,000 years," Corell says, "we have been living in a remarkably stable climate that has allowed the whole of human development to take place. In all that time, through the mediaeval warming and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation of 1C. Now we see the potential for sudden changes of between 2C and 6C. We just don't know what the world is like at those temperatures. We are climbing rapidly out of mankind's safe zone into new territory, and we have no idea if we can live in it."

isabel.hilton@guardian.co.uk

Greenland Ice Sheet, Glaciers 2007

Shockwaves from melting icecaps are triggering earthquakes, say scientists

By Daniel Howden, in Ilulissat, Greenland

http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2941866.ece

Published: 08 September 2007, The Independent

High up inside the Arctic circle the melting of Greenland's ice sheet has accelerated so dramatically that it is triggering earthquakes for the first time.

Scientists monitoring the glaciers have revealed that movements of gigantic pieces of ice are creating shockwaves that register up to three on the Richter scale.

The speed of the arctic ice melt has accelerated to such an extent that a UN report issued earlier this year is now thought to be out of date by its own authors.

The American polar expert Robert Correll, among the key contributors to the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report issued in February, described the acceleration as "massive".

Estimates of the likely rise in sea levels this century vary, and the IPCC published a conservative range of between 20cm-60cm. But those estimates are now heavily disputed, with many scientists insisting that new data collected since the IPCC report suggested a rise closer to two metres. Professor Correll said there was now a "consensus" that a significant acceleration in the loss of ice mass has occurred since the last report.

The revelations came at a conference in the north of Greenland, which has drawn world religious leaders, scientists and environmentalists to the Ilulissat Icefjord. Ilulissat is home to the most active glacier in Greenland and it was one of the immense icebergs that calve from it on a daily basis that is believed to have sunk the Titanic. The Arctic is acknowledged as the fastest warming place on earth.

The local Inuit population, whose lives have been drastically altered by the changing climate, were yesterday led in a silent prayer for the future of the planet by the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, the organiser of the arctic symposium and spiritual leader of the world's 250 million Orthodox Christians.

Greenland's ice cap is immense, the second largest in the world, and its break-up would be catastrophic. The packed ice is up to two miles thick and its total collapse into the ocean would raise worldside sea levels by seven metres.

At the Ilulissat Icefjord, 250km north of the Arctic Circle, the advance of the glacier into the sea is now visible to the naked eye. "It's moving toward the sea at a rate of two metres an hour," said Professor Correll. "It's exuding like toothpaste, moving towards us at 15 kilometres per year."

One day's worth of the Ilulissat ice would provide enough fresh water to supply the largest cities in the world for a whole year – and yet it amounts to only 7 per cent of Greenland's total melt.

As the glaciers thaw, pools of water are forming, feeding fractures in the ice, down which the water flows until it hits the bedrock.

"These so-called moulins are phenomenal," said Professor Correll, who said they had been remarkably scarce when he first visited the glacier in 1968. "Now they are like rivers 10 or 15 metres in diameter and there are thousands of them."

He compared the process to putting oil underneath the ice to make it move forward faster.

As the reality of the unprecedented thaw becomes apparent, the consequences are outstripping the capacity of scientific models to predict it.

Earthquakes, or glacial ice quakes, in the north-west of Greenland are among the latest ominous signs that an unprecedented step change is under way. The Finnish scientist Veli Albert Kallio is one of the region's leading ice experts and has been tracking the earthquakes.

"Glacial earthquakes in north-west Greenland did not exist until three years ago," he said.

The accelerating thaw and the earthquakes are intimately connected, according to Mr Kallio, as immense slabs of ice are sheared from the bed rock by melt water. Those blocks of ice, often more than 800m deep and 1500m long, contain immense rocks as well and move against geological faults with seismic consequences. The study of these ice quakes is still in its infancy, according to Professor Correll, but their occurrence is in itself disturbing. "It is becoming a lot more volatile," said Mr Vallio. Predictions made by the Arctic Council, a working group of regional scientists, have been hopelessly overrun by the extent of the thaw. "Five years ago we made models predicting how much ice would melt and when," said Mr Vallio. "Five years later we are already at the levels predicted for 2040, in a year's time we'll be at 2050."

This dramatic warming is being felt across the Arctic region. In Alaska, earthquakes are rocking the seabed as tectonic plates – subdued for centuries by the weight of the glaciers on top of them – are now moving against each other again.

In the north of Sweden, mean temperatures have risen above zero for the first time on record.

Professor Terry Callaghan has been working in the remote north of the country at a research station which has been taking continuous readings for the past 100 years. His recent findings tally with the accelerating pace of change elsewhere.

"Mean temperatures have remained below zero here since medieval times," said Professor Callaghan. "Now, over the past 10 years we have exceeded zero, the mark at which ice turns to water." Professor Correll said: "We are looking at a very different planet than the one we are used to."

Melting ice cap triggering earthquakes

· Estimates of sea-level rise out of date, say scientists
· Religious leaders pray for planet at Greenland glacier

  • The Guardian
  • Saturday September 8 2007

The Greenland ice cap is melting so quickly that it is triggering earthquakes as pieces of ice several cubic kilometres in size break off.

Scientists monitoring events this summer say the acceleration could be catastrophic in terms of sea-level rise and make predictions this February by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change far too low.

The glacier at Ilulissat, which supposedly spawned the iceberg that sank the Titantic, is now flowing three times faster into the sea than it was 10 years ago.

Robert Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, said in Ilulissat yesterday: "We have seen a massive acceleration of the speed with which these glaciers are moving into the sea. The ice is moving at 2 metres an hour on a front 5km [3 miles] long and 1,500 metres deep. That means that this one glacier puts enough fresh water into the sea in one year to provide drinking water for a city the size of London for a year."

He is visiting Greenland as part of a symposium of religious, scientific, and political leaders to look at the problems of the island, which has an ice cap 3km thick containing enough water to raise worldwide sea levels by seven metres.

Yesterday Christian, Shia, Sunni, Hindu, Shinto, Buddhist and Jewish religious leaders took a boat to the tongue of the glacier for a silent prayer for the planet. They were invited by Bartholomew I, the spiritual leader of 250 million Orthodox Christians worldwide.

Dr Corell, director of the global change programme at the Heinz Centre in Washington, said the estimates of sea level rise in the IPCC report were based on data two years old. The predicted rise this century was 20-60cm (about 8-24ins) , but it would be at the upper end of this range at a minimum, he said, and some believed it could be two metres. This would be catastrophic for European coastlines.

He had flown over the Ilulissat glacier and "seen gigantic holes in it through which swirling masses of melt water were falling. I first looked at this glacier in the 1960s and there were no holes. These so-called moulins, 10 to 15 metres across, have opened up all over the place. There are hundreds of them."

This melt water was pouring through to the bottom of the glacier creating a lake 500 metres deep which was causing the glacier "to float on land. These melt-water rivers are lubricating the glacier, like applying oil to a surface and causing it to slide into the sea. It is causing a massive acceleration which could be catastrophic."

The glacier is now moving at 15km a year into the sea although in surges it moves even faster. He measured one surge at 5km in 90 minutes - an extraordinary event.

Veli Kallio, a Finnish scientist, said the quakes were triggered because ice had broken away after being fused to the rock for hundreds of years. The quakes were not vast - on a magnitude of 1 to 3 - but had never happened before in north-west Greenland and showed potential for the entire ice sheet to collapse.

Dr Corell said: "These earthquakes are not dangerous in themselves but the fact that they are happening shows that events are happening far faster than we ever anticipated."