When we see records being broken and unprecedented events such as this, the onus is on those who deny any connection to climate change to prove their case. Global warming has fundamentally altered the background conditions that give rise to all weather. In the strictest sense, all weather is now connected to climate change. Kevin Trenberth
HIT THE PAGE DOWN KEY TO SEE THE POSTS
Now at 8,800+ articles. HIT THE PAGE DOWN KEY TO SEE THE POSTS
A group of British scientists and their supporters is willing to risk a prison term to press governments to tackle climate change and environmental crisis.
by Alex Kirby, Climate News Network, October 31, 2018
LONDON − A growing number of British academics, writers and activists say they are ready to go to prison in support of their demands for action on the environment.
Scientists are not normally renowned for their political activism, and the UK is hardly a hotbed of determined and risky protest against its rulers. But, if this group of nearly 100 British scientists and their backers is right, all that may be on the brink of changing.
Today sees the launch of ExtinctionRebellion, which describes itself as an international movement using mass civil disobedience to force governments to enter World War Two−level mobilization mode, in response to climate breakdown and ecological crisis.
The group is launching a Declaration of Rebellion against the UK government “for criminal inaction in the face of climate change catastrophe and ecological collapse” at the Houses of Parliament in central London.
“We need ExtinctionRebellion as part of the mosaic of responses to the extremely precarious situation we now find ourselves in”
From today it promises “repeated acts of disruptive, non-violent civil disobedience” if the government does not respond seriously to its demands, and says “there will be mass arrests.”
“Now is the time because we are out of time. There is nothing left to lose.”
The group’s demands include the declaration by the UK government of a state of emergency, action to create a zero carbon economy by 2025, and the establishment of a national assembly of “ordinary people” to decide what the zero carbon future will look like.
“Children alive today in the UK will face unimaginable horrors as a result of floods, wildfires, extreme weather, crop failures and the inevitable breakdown of society when the pressures are so great. We are unprepared for the danger our future holds.”
Its members say they are willing to make personal sacrifices, to be arrested and to go to prison. They hope to inspire similar actions around the world and believe this global effort must begin in the UK, today, where the industrial revolution began.
Another supporter is Andrew Simms of the New Weather Institute. He told the Climate News Network: “This is almost a cry of desperation. People are bewildered. But almost every profound change in British society, from the abolition of slavery to the improvement of shipping safety, has involved people risking arrest.
“The signs I am getting from the UK government now are that it is a reckless administration putting its own people and others at risk by putting climate change virtually nowhere.
“The Declaration alone won’t bring about change: we’ll need people working practically to make change happen on the ground. But we need ExtinctionRebellion as part of the mosaic of responses to the extremely precarious situation we now find ourselves in.”
Simms, convinced that an entirely new potential for rapid societal change now exists, says: “We know what’s needed, and the resources to do it are there. ExtinctionRebellion is one example of how new ideas can spread quickly and rapid shift − and radical action − can come closer.”
The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system1. During recent decades, ocean heat uptake has been quantified by using hydrographic temperature measurements and data from the Argo float program, which expanded its coverage after 20072,3. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainties resulting from sparse coverage, especially before 20074,5. Here we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2)—levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases—as a whole-ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.33 ± 0.20 × 1022 joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.83 ± 0.11 watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result—which relies on high-precision O2 measurements dating back to 19916—suggests that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications for policy-relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases7 and the thermal component of sea-level rise8.
IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013).
2.
Abraham, J. P. et al. A review of global ocean temperature observations: implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change. Rev. Geophys. 51, 450–483 (2013).
Boyer, T. et al. Sensitivity of global upper-ocean heat content estimates to mapping methods, XBT bias corrections, and baseline climatologies. J. Clim. 29, 4817–4842 (2016).
Church, J. A. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1137–1216 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013).
9.
Ishii, M. et al. Accuracy of global upper ocean heat content estimation expected from present observational data sets. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos. 13, 163–167 (2017).
Desbruyères, D. G., Purkey, S. G., McDonagh, E. L., Johnson, G. C. & King, B. A. Deep and abyssal ocean warming from 35 years of repeat hydrography. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 10356–10365 (2016).
Loeb, N. G. et al. Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. Nat. Geosci. 5, 110–113 (2012).
Ritz, S. P., Stocker, T. F. & Severinghaus, J. P. Noble gases as proxies of mean ocean temperature: sensitivity studies using a climate model of reduced complexity. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30, 3728–3741 (2011).
Resplandy, L. et al. Constraints on oceanic meridional heat transport from combined measurements of oxygen and carbon. Clim. Dyn. 47, 3335–3357 (2016); erratum 49, 4317 (2017).
Stephens, B. B. et al. Testing global ocean carbon cycle models using measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 concentration. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles12, 213–230 (1998).
DeVries, T. The oceanic anthropogenic CO2 sink: storage, air-sea fluxes, and transports over the industrial era. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles28, 631–647 (2014).
Wang, R. et al. Influence of anthropogenic aerosol deposition on the relationship between oceanic productivity and warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 10745–10754 (2015).
Rietbroek, R., Brunnabend, S.-E., Kusche, J., Schröter, J. & Dahle, C. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA113, 1504–1509 (2016).
IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K. & Reisinger, A.) (IPCC, Geneva, 2008).
25.
Keeling, R. F. & Severinghaus, J. P. in The Carbon Cycle (eds Wigley, T. M. L. & Schimel, D.) 134–140 (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2000).
26.
Resplandy, L., Séférian, R. & Bopp, L. Natural variability of CO2 and O2 fluxes: what can we learn from centuries-long climate models simulations? J. Geophys. Res. Oceans120, 384–404 (2015).
Keeling, R. F. & Garcia, H. E. The change in oceanic O2 inventory associated with recent global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA99, 7848–7853 (2002).
Bopp, L., Le Quéré, C., Heimann, M., Manning, A. C. & Monfray, P. Climate-induced oceanic oxygen fluxes: implications for the contemporary carbon budget. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles16, 1022 (2002).
Keeling, C. D., Piper, S. C., Whorf, T. P. & Keeling, R. F. Evolution of natural and anthropogenic fluxes of atmospheric CO2 from 1957 to 2003. Tellus B Chem. Phys. Meterol. 63, 1–22 (2011).
Olsen, A. et al. The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project version 2 (GLODAPv2)—an internally consistent data product for the world ocean. Earth Syst. Sci. Data8, 297–323 (2016).
Severinghaus, J. P. Studies of the Terrestrial O2and Carbon Cycles in Sand Dune Gases and in Biosphere. PhD Thesis, Columbia Univ. (1995).
34.
Hamme, R. C. & Keeling, R. F. Ocean ventilation as a driver of interannual variability in atmospheric potential oxygen. Tellus B Chem. Phys. Meterol. 60, 706–717 (2008).
Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A. & Higdon, D. A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission. Tellus B Chem. Phys. Meterol. 66, 23616 (2014).
Keeling, R. F., Manning, A. C., Paplawsky, W. J. & Cox, A. C. On the long-term stability of reference gases for atmospheric O2/N2 and CO2 measurements. Tellus B Chem. Phys. Meterol. 59, 3–14 (2007).
Ballantyne, A. P. et al. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty. Biogeosciences12, 2565–2584 (2015).
Bronselaer, B., Winton, M., Russell, J., Sabine, C. L. & Khatiwala, S. Agreement of CMIP5 simulated and observed ocean anthropogenic CO2 uptake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 12298–12305 (2017).
Oeschger, H., Siegenthaler, U., Schotterer, U. & Gugelmann, A. A box diffusion model to study the carbon dioxide exchange in nature. Tellus27, 168–192 (1975).
Wang, D., Gouhier, T. C., Menge, B. A. & Ganguly, A. R. Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change. Nature518, 390–394 (2015).
Ito, T., Nenes, A., Johnson, M. S., Meskhidze, N. & Deutsch, C. Acceleration of oxygen decline in the tropical Pacific over the past decades by aerosol pollutants. Nat. Geosci. 9, 443–447 (2016).
Jickells, T. D. et al. A reevaluation of the magnitude and impacts of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen inputs on the ocean. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles31, 289–305 (2017).
Somes, C. J., Landolfi, A., Koeve, W. & Oschlies, A. Limited impact of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on marine productivity due to biogeochemical feedbacks in a global ocean model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 4500–4509 (2016).
Aumont, O., Ethé, C., Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L. & Gehlen, M. PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 2465–2513 (2015).
Talley, L. D. et al. Changes in ocean heat, carbon content, and ventilation: a review of the first decade of GO-SHIP global repeat hydrography. Annu. Rev. Marine Sci. 8, 185–215 (2016).
Gruber, N., Sarmiento, J. L. & Stocker, T. F. An improved method for detecting anthropogenic CO2in the oceans. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles10, 809–837 (1996).
Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate–carbon Earth system models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 25, 6646–6665 (2012).
Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate–carbon Earth system models. Part II: carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 26, 2247–2267 (2013).
Séférian, R., Iudicone, D., Bopp, L., Roy, T. & Madec, G. Water mass analysis of effect of climate change on air–sea CO2 fluxes: the Southern Ocean. J. Clim. 25, 3894–3908 (2012).
Kay, J. E. et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1333–1349 (2015).
Keller, D. P., Oschlies, A. & Eby, M. A new marine ecosystem model for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model. Geosci. Model Dev. 5, 1195–1220 (2012).
Keller, D. P., Kriest, I., Koeve, W. & Oschlies, A. Southern Ocean biological impacts on global ocean oxygen. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 6469–6477 (2016).
Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Doney, S. C., Long, M. C. & Misumi, K. Marine ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. J. Clim. 26, 9291–9312 (2013).
Rödenbeck, C., Le Quéré, C., Heimann, M. & Keeling, R. F. Interannual variability in oceanic biogeochemical processes inferred by inversion of atmospheric O2/N2 and CO2 data. Tellus B Chem. Phys. Meterol. 60, 685–705 (2008).
Hamme, R. C. Mechanisms controlling the global oceanic distribution of the inert gases argon, nitrogen and neon. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 35-1–35-4 (2002).
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., von Schuckmann, K. & Cheng, L. Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources. J. Clim. 29, 7495–7505 (2016).
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117, D08101 (2012).
Posts
