"Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia" by Andrew C. Kemp et al., PNAS,

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print June 20, 2011; doi: 10.1073/pnas.1015619108

Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

1. Andrew C. Kemp^a,^b, 
2. Benjamin P. Horton^a,¹, 
3. Jeffrey P. Donnelly^c, 
4. Michael E. Mann^d, 
5. Martin Vermeer^e 
6. and 
7. Stefan Rahmstorf^f

+Author Affiliations

1. ^aDepartment of Earth and Environmental Science, Sea Level Research, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104;
2. ^bSchool of Forestry and Environmental Studies and Yale Climate and Energy Institute, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511;
3. ^cDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543;
4. ^dDepartment of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
5. ^eDepartment of Surveying, Aalto University School of Engineering, P.O. Box 11000, FI-00076, Aalto, Finland; and
6. ^fPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

1. Edited* by Anny Cazenave, Center National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Toulouse Cedex 9, France, and approved March 25, 2011 (received for review October 29, 2010).

Abstract

We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

• ¹Correspondence e-mail: bphorton@sas.upenn.edu.

• Author contributions: A.C.K., B.P.H., J.P.D., M.V., and S.R. designed research; A.C.K., B.P.H., J.P.D., M.V., and S.R. performed research; A.C.K. and M.V. prepared figures; A.C.K., B.P.H., J.P.D., M.E.M., M.V., and S.R. analyzed data; and B.P.H., M.V., and S.R. wrote the paper.
• *This Direct Submission article had a prearranged editor.
• This article contains supporting information online at: www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1015619108/-/DCSupplemental.
  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/13/1015619108.abstract
  Link to free, open-access full article:  http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/13/1015619108.full.pdf+html