How Carlos went 'feral' over Darwin

NADJA HAINKE, ntnews,com.au, February 20th, 2011

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CYCLONE Carlos exploded like a "hand grenade" over Darwin, weather experts said. Authorities called the storm a "one-in-500-year event."

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And Met Bureau regional director Andrew Tupper said the cyclone was so unusual, he wanted to turn it into a case study.

"The system really went feral," he said.

Cyclone Carlos appeared suddenly and dismissed all predictions.

The storm formed over land near Darwin on Tuesday before twisting around and travelling southwest.

It weakened to a tropical low and was expected to reform in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf early tomorrow, for the second time in four days.

The system brought heavy rain and wild wind with wide parts of the Top End flooded.

NT Chief Minister Paul Henderson said Carlos was an unpredictable beast.

"It was really a one-in-500-year event," he said.

"Nobody has experienced anything like this and nobody can plan for this type of weather."

Weather warnings were released less than 24 hours in advance.

And Dr Tupper said the Met Bureau was taken by surprise by its fast development.

"We knew we had a low but it was looking like a bog-standard thing," he said. "And then it went berserk."

Carlos hit just over a week after Queensland experienced its largest and most powerful cyclone in living memory.

Category five storm Yasi was forecast with impressive accuracy five days before making landfall on February 3, 2011.

Dr Tupper said weather conditions in the Top End were more complex and Carlos needed to be studied to get to the ground of the system.

"We have to treat every cyclone like a hand grenade," he said.

"It's with these sorts of events we really need to look at, with all science in the world, how could we have done it better."

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