TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Issued at 2:41 am WST Monday 21 February 2011. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 35.UPDATES (REFER TO LINK BELOW FOR UPDATED REPORTS):
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60285.shtml
Remarks:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos has moved quickly across the Kimberley during the last 12 hours and is now over open waters just north of Broome. It is likely to slow down a little during Monday as it tracks toward the west southwest and reforms into a tropical cyclone.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Cape Leveque and De Grey during Monday morning especially if the system develops faster than expected. GALES may then extend along the Pilbara coast to Karratha on Monday night and then towards Exmouth by late Tuesday. There is the risk of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour on Tuesday along the Pilbara coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 kilometres per hour are possible west of Mardie later on Tuesday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible localised flooding for parts of the Kimberley region, extending to Pilbara coastal streams later on Monday and Tuesday. Refer to Flood Advices for the Kimberley [IDW39610] and Pilbara [IDW39620].
Residents of Pilbara coastal towns are warned that tides may rise significantly above the high water mark as the cyclone moves down the coast, even if it doesn't cross the coast. DAMAGING WAVES and FLOODING of low lying coastal areas are possible.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Cape Leveque and De Grey during Monday morning especially if the system develops faster than expected. GALES may then extend along the Pilbara coast to Karratha on Monday night and then towards Exmouth by late Tuesday. There is the risk of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour on Tuesday along the Pilbara coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 kilometres per hour are possible west of Mardie later on Tuesday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible localised flooding for parts of the Kimberley region, extending to Pilbara coastal streams later on Monday and Tuesday. Refer to Flood Advices for the Kimberley [IDW39610] and Pilbara [IDW39620].
Residents of Pilbara coastal towns are warned that tides may rise significantly above the high water mark as the cyclone moves down the coast, even if it doesn't cross the coast. DAMAGING WAVES and FLOODING of low lying coastal areas are possible.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland, including Cape Leveque, Broome, Bidyadanga, Wallal and Port Hedland should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque, including Kuri Bay, Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland, including Cape Leveque, Broome, Bidyadanga, Wallal and Port Hedland should commence taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque, including Kuri Bay, Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details:
| Time (WST) | Intensity Category | Latitude (decimal deg.) | Longitude (decimal deg.) | Estimated Position Accuracy (km) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0hr | 2 am February 21 | tropical low | 17.5S | 122.0E | 35 |
| +6hr | 8 am February 21 | tropical low | 17.9S | 120.9E | 85 |
| +12hr | 2 pm February 21 | 1 | 18.3S | 119.8E | 110 |
| +18hr | 8 pm February 21 | 1 | 18.8S | 118.7E | 140 |
| +24hr | 2 am February 22 | 2 | 19.4S | 117.6E | 165 |
| +36hr | 2 pm February 22 | 2 | 20.5S | 115.6E | 215 |
| +48hr | 2 am February 23 | 3 | 21.6S | 113.7E | 270 |
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 6:00 am WST Monday.
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