P. M. Cox et al., Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78(1-3) 137-156 (June 2004); doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

P. M. Cox¹, R. A. Betts¹, M. Collins², P. P. Harris³, C. Huntingford³ and C. D. Jones¹

¹Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Research, Met Office, Exeter, U.K.

²Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, U.K.

³Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, U.K.

Abstract

The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a business as usual emissions scenario CO₂ concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO₂ arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO₂ in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.

Received 28 March 2003; revised 16 August 2003; accepted 9 October 2003; published online 27 April 2004.

Link:  http://springerlink.metapress.com/content/5ya2xh872g25fglt/