4 degrees and beyond: International Climate Conference, 28-30 September 2009, Oxford, U.K.

4 degrees and beyond

Dr. Schellnhuber's presentation "Terra quasi-incognita -- beyond the 2 degree line":

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf

Monday 28 September

9am - 10.45am: Registration and coffee

11am - 12.50pm: Session 1, Conference Opening

Chair: Dr Mark New Audio

Prof John Schellnhuber Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2°C line	Slides	Audio
Dr Richard Betts Met Office Hadley Centre	Regional climate changes at 4+°C	Slides	Audio
Prof Nigel Arnell University of Reading	4+°C: impacts across the global scale	Slides	Audio

2pm-3.45pm: Session 2, Agriculture, Food and Water Security 1

Chair: Prof Diana Liverman

Dr Philip Thornton International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi; Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Edinburgh	4+°C: what might this mean for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa?	Slides	Audio
Dr Polly Ericksen GECAFS / ECI, University of Oxford	Adapting African food systems to a 4+°C world	Slides	Audio
Dr Reimund Rotter MTT Agrifood Research Finland	What would happen to barley production in Finland if global temperature increases above 4+°C?	Slides	Audio
Mr Rasack Nayamuth Mauritius Sugar Industry Research Institute	4+°C: A Drastic reduction in the renewable energy potential of sugarcane	Slides	Audio

3.45pm - 4.25pm: Poster session 1

4.25-6.05pm: Session 3, Agriculture, Food and Water Security 2

Chair: Prof Nigel Arnell

Dr Andrew Challinor University of Leeds	Crop yields at 4+°C: implications for adaptation	Slides	Audio
Dr Fai Fung Tyndall Centre, University of Oxford	Risked posed to global water availability by a 4+°C climate change	Slides	Audio coming soon
Dr Matthew Charlton Walker Institute	Limits to adaptation: implications of global temperature changes beyond 4+°C for water supply in southern England	Slides coming soon	Audio coming soon
Prof Anders Levermann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions	Slides	Audio

6.05pm-9pm: Drinks reception and dinner at St Anne's

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Tuesday 29 September

9am - 11.20am: Session 4, Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services

Chair: Dr Mark New

Prof Yadvinder Malhi Environmental Change Insitute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford	Tropical forests in a 4+°C world	Slides	Audio
Prof Wolfgang Cramer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	Changing climate, land use and fire in Amazonia under high warming scenarios	Slides coming soon	Audio
Prof Andy Moffat Forest Research	Living with uncertainty – UK forestry beyond 4+°C	Slides	Audio
Jose Marengo Earth System Science Centre/National Institute for Space Research, Brazil	Projected impacts of 4+°C warming in the semiarid lands of northeast Brazil	Slides	Audio

10.50am - 11.20am: Poster session 2

11.20am - 1.30pm: Session 5: Vulnerable People and Places 1

Chair: Dr Chris West

Dr Pier Vellinga Wageningen University	Sea level rise and impacts in a 4+°C World	Slides	Audio
Prof Stefan Rahmstorf Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	Sea-level rise in a 4°C world	Slides	Audio
Diogo de Gusmao Met Office Hadley Centre	Sea level rise projections for the warmest IPCC SRES simulations	Slides	Audio
Prof Robert Nicholls Sally Brown University of Southampton	Impacts of sea-level rise at 4+°C	Slides	Audio
Dr Jochen Hinkel Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research	The impacts of sea-level rise on coastal nations with and without mitigation. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models	Slides	Audio

2.30pm - 4.10pm: Session 6: Vulnerable People and Places 2

Chair: Dr Richard Betts

Prof David Karoly University of Melbourne	Wildfire in a 4+°C World	Slides	Audio
Dr Simon Hales World Health Organisation	Estimating human population health impacts in a 4+°C world	Slides	Audio
Dr Francois Gemenne Sciences Po Paris	Climate-Induced Population Displacements in a 4+°C World	Slides	Audio
Dr Pamela McElwee Arizona State University	Social Vulnerability and Adaptation Possibilities for Vietnam in a 4+°C World	Slides	Audio

4.10pm - 4.40pm: Poster session 3

4.40pm - 5.40pm: Session 7, Panel Discussion

4°C of climate change: alarmist or realist?Audio

Prof Diana Liverman, Mark Lynas, Dr Kevin Anderson, Dr Chris West

Wednesday 30 September

9am - 10.40pm: Session 8, Adaptation

Chair: Prof Diana Liverman

Prof Leonard Smith London School of Economics	One, Two, Three, More: Challenges to Describing a Warmer World	Slides	Audio
Dr Mark Stafford CSIRO	How adaptation decision-making is affected by the potential for 4+°C	Slides coming soon	Audio
Dr Michael Morecroft Natural England	Nature conservation in a 4+°C world - a luxury or a necessity?	Slides	Audio
Ms Lisa Horrocks AEA	The implications of 4+°C warming for adaptation strategies in the UK: time to change?	Slides	Audio

10.40am - 11.10am: Poster session 4

11.10am - 12.50pm: Session 9: Avoiding Large Climate Changes

Chair: Prof Diana Liverman

Dr Jason Lowe The Met Office	4+°C: the emissions reduction challenge	Slides coming soon	Audio coming soon
Dr Myles Allen Department of Physics, University of Oxford	What will it take to avoid 2, 3 and 4+°C? the importance of cumulative emissions	Slides	Audio
Dr Rob Swart Wageningen University and Research Centre	Beyond 4°C: should we reconsider our options?	Slides	Audio
Ms Holly Preston Dalton Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University	The role of international transportation sectors in climate stabilization	Slides	Audio

2pm - 3.50pm: Session 10: Avoiding Large Climate Changes 2

Chair: Dr Mark New

Prof Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research	Global emission pathways: balancing Annex 1 mitigation with non-Annex 1 development	Slides coming soon	Audio coming soon
Prof Bertrand Guillaume University of Technology or Troyes	Avoiding a 4+°C world: A challenge for democracy	Slides coming soon	Audio coming soon
Dr Hari Dulal The World Bank	Greenhouse Gas Contributions and Mitigation Potential of Agriculture: Creating Incentives within the Existing Carbon Trading Agreements	Slides coming soon	Audio coming soon

3.30pm - 4.30pm: Conference roundup

Synthesis and implications for Copenhagen
Prof Diana Liverman

Conference closes

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Poster Sessions

Agriculture, water and food security

Prof. Raul Ponce-Hernandez Trent University	A model-based approach to predicting the effects of global warming four degrees and beyond on ecosystem primary productivity, land degradatoin and food security at national scale: Case Study Ethiopia
Dr. Helena Kahiluoto Agrifood Research Finland	Implications of 4+°C global warming on potential of carbon trading for mitigation and food security - analytical framework and an Ethiopian case
Dr. Yasuaki Hijioka National Institute for Environmental Studies	Implications of 4° in Japan. -- Quantitative analysis of sectoral impacts of climate change in Japan using an integrated assessment model, AIM/Impact[Policy]
Mr. Jens Heinke Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research	Implications for Global Water Availability of Extreme Global Warming Scenarios
Mr. Robert McSweeney Atkins Water & Environment, and University of East Anglia	The implications of a 4° rise in global mean temperature for water resources in south east England

Ecosystems and ecosystem services

Dr. Humphrey Crick Natural England	Ecosystem-based conservation in a 4+°C world
Dr. Elena Parfenova Forest Institute	Conifer trees of the South Siberia Mountains in a changing climate of XXI Century
Dr. Stephan A. Pietsch BOKU University of Naturalö Resources and Applied Life Sciences	4+°C: Ecosystem Resilience and Predictability
Mr. Przemyslaw Zelazowski University of Oxford	The influence of variation in climate simulations on the simulated response of tropical forests to a global 4 degrees warming

Vulnerable people and places

Dr. Raj Kumar Sen Rabindra Bharati University, Kolkata	Vulnerable Areas and Vulnerable Peoples: A Case Study of Sundarbans of Bangladesh and India
Dr. Matthew Eames University of Exeter	Predicting temperatures within buildings and the heat stress on occupants under substantial climate change
Prof. Clive Hamilton Australian National University/Yale University	Adaptive Coping Strategies in a 4+°C World
Mr. Abdeltif El Ouahrani University Abdelmalek Essaadi	Climate Change and Mediterranean region: vulnerability and opportunities
Mr. Jayesh Bhatia NR Management Consultants India	Poverty reduction and climate change adaptation in worst case scenario – Synergies & Challenges
Dr. Gernot Brodnig World Bank	A View From the Top: Vulnerability and Adaptation in Mountain Systems
Dr. Sally Brown University of Southampton	Sea level response and impacts to a 1°C to 7°C temperature rise by 2100

Avoiding large climate changes

Mr. Markus Hageman Ecofys GmbH	The role of sectoral characteristics in designing mechanism for participation of developing countries
Dr. Robin Hickman Oxford University	Backcasting for low carbon transport
Dr. Dominic Moran Scottish Agricultural College	UK Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for the Agriculture and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Sectors out to 2022, with Qualitative Analysis of Options to 2050
Dr. Jasper Knight University of Exeter	Landscape responses to future climate change in glaciated mountains
Dr. Katja Frieler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)	Applications of pattern scaling for probabilistic assessment of regional climate impacts