When we see records being broken and unprecedented events such as this, the onus is on those who deny any connection to climate change to prove their case. Global warming has fundamentally altered the background conditions that give rise to all weather. In the strictest sense, all weather is now connected to climate change. Kevin Trenberth
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Monday, March 9, 2009
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent Graph March 9, 2009 -- maximum extent possibly already reached
Well it still can rebound... This other map http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm shows such a phenomenon in 2002 and 2003. Wait and see...
I don't know if it's related with recent ice conditions, but the three expeditions on the arctic who left North America (Resolute) beg. March have very bad conditions, they just can make 2 or 3 km per day...
That ice has been so damned pitiful all winter! It cracked all up a month ago. Last year, it was still pristine at this time. I saved satellite photos of the ice from last year, but on my old PC which is not functioning at the moment, otherwise I would do a big post on it of comparison photos.
The ice is just pitiful. Have a look at the Canadian site or the Danish one.
Look at the Canadian satellite photos -- it wasn't like this until June or July last year.
Of course the ice is thin, cracked, in a very bad shape... I just hope this recent peak won't mark the top extent for 2008-2009, as it would be a record for the earliest date in the melt season (+/- data error). The ice surely doesn't need to start the season with such a new record...
As usual, thanks a lot for the hours you spend reading the Net and compiling this info. Even "Cryosphere in the News" at http://clic.npolar.no/disc/disc_media.php hasn't all your info.
Well, according to nsidc, it still resists... but on IJIS site, http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm it has started to decline.
The ARCUS/SEARCH team (http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php) has started meetings to prepare their outlooks for the 2009 summer; this page http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/march_2009_wgm/agenda.php has very interestings (although not reassuring) pdfs and PPTs from the Top Arctic Teams.
You may know that I live out in the middle of nowhere in the Brazilian state of Bahia, so many resources are not available to me.
Thus, I have instead spent a great deal of time looking at satellite photos instead of doing number crunching.
Normally, I am in favor of number crunching over visual inspection any time.
However, once I came across sites of the global water vapor images, many of them with time-lapse animations, it was more than obvious that huge amounts of energy were being transported to the Arctic via strong winds (meteorologists speak in terms of highs and lows) that shredded most of the oncoming hurricanes in the Atlantic and the typhoons in the Pacific, and these storm systems were transported to the Pole.
I kept thinking, "why is no one talking about this!?!"
Well, in fact, they were, but as we know, it takes a long time to get this type of information into the public domain due to the peer-review process, etc.
After 2007, the PDO shifted and effectively blocked off a lot of this energy transport that was entering the Arctic Sea via the Bering Strait.
At the same time, at the equator, the trade winds reversed, preventing the formation of large energetic hurricane type systems in the Atlantic.
So, in 2008, not nearly so much energy was transported to the Arctic.
If you look at the water vapor streams that transport energy all around the planet, how they are interconnected, really it is not that complicated a notion.
However, for the past few months, I have neglected to keep up with observation of the images so I can't even guess at what is going on right now.
But, if you want to see articles about the transport of this energy to the Arctic, just look here: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2008/10/sirpa-hakkinen-rising-frequency-and.html
Fred, I am really beginning to be torn, time wise, between doing the necessary reading (the link you sent is fab!) for posting the best and most pertinent research on the blog and devoting more time to producing income for household.
I have been pulling back on the blog, and I will have to continue to do that. I am working on a blog that will eventually have commercial content, unlike this present blog. I don't really have a choice anymore.
Well it still can rebound... This other map http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm shows such a phenomenon in 2002 and 2003. Wait and see...
ReplyDeleteI don't know if it's related with recent ice conditions, but the three expeditions on the arctic who left North America (Resolute) beg. March have very bad conditions, they just can make 2 or 3 km per day...
Dear FredT,
ReplyDeleteThat ice has been so damned pitiful all winter! It cracked all up a month ago. Last year, it was still pristine at this time. I saved satellite photos of the ice from last year, but on my old PC which is not functioning at the moment, otherwise I would do a big post on it of comparison photos.
The ice is just pitiful. Have a look at the Canadian site or the Danish one.
Look at the Canadian satellite photos -- it wasn't like this until June or July last year.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_yrb_ir_100.jpg
Or check out the Danish one:
http://www.seaice.dk/iwicos/latest/
Click on the black and white composite image.
Well, it's just... awful.
ReplyDeleteOf course the ice is thin, cracked, in a very bad shape... I just hope this recent peak won't mark the top extent for 2008-2009, as it would be a record for the earliest date in the melt season (+/- data error). The ice surely doesn't need to start the season with such a new record...
As usual, thanks a lot for the hours you spend reading the Net and compiling this info. Even "Cryosphere in the News" at http://clic.npolar.no/disc/disc_media.php hasn't all your info.
Well, according to nsidc, it still resists... but on IJIS site, http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm it has started to decline.
ReplyDeleteThe ARCUS/SEARCH team (http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php) has started meetings to prepare their outlooks for the 2009 summer; this page http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/march_2009_wgm/agenda.php has very interestings (although not reassuring) pdfs and PPTs from the Top Arctic Teams.
Fred, thanks for those links.
ReplyDeleteYou may know that I live out in the middle of nowhere in the Brazilian state of Bahia, so many resources are not available to me.
Thus, I have instead spent a great deal of time looking at satellite photos instead of doing number crunching.
Normally, I am in favor of number crunching over visual inspection any time.
However, once I came across sites of the global water vapor images, many of them with time-lapse animations, it was more than obvious that huge amounts of energy were being transported to the Arctic via strong winds (meteorologists speak in terms of highs and lows) that shredded most of the oncoming hurricanes in the Atlantic and the typhoons in the Pacific, and these storm systems were transported to the Pole.
I kept thinking, "why is no one talking about this!?!"
Well, in fact, they were, but as we know, it takes a long time to get this type of information into the public domain due to the peer-review process, etc.
After 2007, the PDO shifted and effectively blocked off a lot of this energy transport that was entering the Arctic Sea via the Bering Strait.
At the same time, at the equator, the trade winds reversed, preventing the formation of large energetic hurricane type systems in the Atlantic.
So, in 2008, not nearly so much energy was transported to the Arctic.
If you look at the water vapor streams that transport energy all around the planet, how they are interconnected, really it is not that complicated a notion.
However, for the past few months, I have neglected to keep up with observation of the images so I can't even guess at what is going on right now.
But, if you want to see articles about the transport of this energy to the Arctic, just look here: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2008/10/sirpa-hakkinen-rising-frequency-and.html
Fred, I am really beginning to be torn, time wise, between doing the necessary reading (the link you sent is fab!) for posting the best and most pertinent research on the blog and devoting more time to producing income for household.
I have been pulling back on the blog, and I will have to continue to do that. I am working on a blog that will eventually have commercial content, unlike this present blog. I don't really have a choice anymore.
This is the other blog:
http://gringa-gem-news.blogspot.com