J. A. Lowe et al., Environ. Res. Lett., Vol. 4, How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

Environmental Research Letters, 4 (2009) 014012 (9 pp.); doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/014012

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

J A Lowe¹, C Huntingford², S C B Raper³, C D Jones⁴, S K Liddicoat⁴ and L K Gohar^1
1 Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
² Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
³ Centre for Air Transport and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD, UK
⁴ Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

Abstract

Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds, using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions, temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and, more importantly, related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous.

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(Received 9 February 2009, accepted for publication 25 February 2009, published 11 March 2009.)

Link to this abstract: http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1748-9326/4/1/014012/