Saturday, June 30, 2012

WaPo: June 29, 2012, derecho, wreaks havoc and destruction in Washington, DC


Derecho: Behind Washington, D.C.’s destructive thunderstorm outbreak, June 29, 2012

by , Washington Post, June 30, 2012

Radar sequence of derecho thunderstorm complex. Storm traveled about 600 miles in 10 hours at an average speed of 60 mph. (Storm Prediction Center)Between 9:30 and 11 p.m. Friday night, one of the most destructive complexes of thunderstorms in memory swept through the entire D.C. area. Packing wind gusts of 60-80 mph, the storm produced extensive damage, downing hundreds of trees, and leaving more than 1 million area-residents without power.

Blue marks indicate reports of damaging wind. Black squares indicate winds of over 75 mph. (National Weather Service)Racing along at speeds over 60 mph, the bowing line of thunderstorms formed west of Chicago around 11 a.m. and by midnight approached the Atlantic ocean. It left a massive trail of destruction spanning from northern Illinois to the Delmarva Peninsula. The National Weather Service has logged well over 800 reports of damaging winds.
This kind of fast-moving, long-lived, large, and violent thunderstorm complex is known as a derecho.

Incredible radar loop of derecho from start to finish uploaded to YouTube by akrherz
Derechos are most common in the Midwest and Great Lakes between May and July. The National Weather Service indicates they occur about once every four years in the D.C. area.
They often form along the northern boundary of a hot air mass, right along or just south of the jet stream -- where upper level winds zip along at high speeds.

Weather map showing fast upper level winds in blue - the location of jet stream, with a front along its southern edge. The derecho formed just south of the front as hot air surged northward.During summer, the jet stream atop a sprawling heat dome is sometimes called a “ring of fire” due to the tendency for explosive thunderstorms to form along this weather front separating hot, humid air to the south and cooler, drier air to the north.
On Friday, a historic, record-setting heat wave covered a sprawling region from the Midwest to the Southeast. All-time high temperatures records of 109 were established in Nashville and Columbia, South, Carolina, and tied in Raleigh and Charlotte which hit 105 and 104. Here in Washington, D.C., the mercury climbed to an astonishing 104 degrees (breaking the previous record set in 1874 and 2011 by two degrees), our hottest June day in 142 years of records.

High temperatures on Friday, June 29, 2012 ( Stu Ostro, Weather.com )As this stifling air bubbled northward, clashing with the weather front draped from near Chicago to just north of D.C., thunderstorms erupted. They grew in coverage and intensity as they raced southeast, powered by the roaring upper level winds and fueled by the record-setting heat and oppressive humidity in their path.

Three-dimensional schematic of a mature derecho showing inflow and outflow channels (National Weather Service)The coverage and availability of this heat energy was vast, sustaining the storms on their 600 mile northwest to southeast traverse. The storms continually ingested the hot, humid air and expelled it in violent downdrafts - crashing into the ground at high speeds and spreading out, sometimes accelerating further.

Winds measured by Doppler radar at 10:05 p.m. Pink shades indicate gusts of over 64 knots or 74 mph which, at the time, were raking Prince George’s county. (University Center for Atmospheric Research)Peak wind gusts in the D.C. region include the following:
71 mph near Dulles Airport
70 mph in Damascus, Md.
79 mph in Reston, Va.
65 mph in Rockville, Md.
70 mph at Reagan National Airport
76 mph in Seat Pleasant, Md. (Prince George’s co.)
77 mph in Swan Point, Md. (Charles co.)
70 mph in Ashburn, Va.
69 mph in Leesburg, Va.
In addition, an 80 mph gust was clocked in Fredericksburg. To the north and west, 91 mph and 72 mph gusts were measured in Ft. Wayne, Indiana and Columbus, Ohio.
This derecho event is likely to go down as not only one of the worst on record in Washington, D.C., but also along its entire path stretching back to northern Indiana.
As the intensity of the heat wave, without reservation, was a key factor in the destructiveness of this derecho event - it raises the question about the possible role of manmade climate warming (from elevated greenhouse concentrations). It’s a complicated, controversial question, but one that scientists will surely grapple with in case studies of this rare, extraordinary event.
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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Help support Peter Sinclair's trip to videograph Mauri Pelto's work on glaciers

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/585166124/climate-crocks-on-ice

ABOUT THIS PROJECT

Over the last 3 and a half years, I've produced more than a hundred videos in the "Climate Denial Crock of the Week" series, and the response has been amazing. I hear from leading climate scientists, oceanographers, glaciologists, and atmospheric scientists every day, who not only love the videos, but use them to teach their students, right up thru graduate level courses. They can do so because all the vids are faithful to the published literature, with copious references that are transparent and easy to check. 
Recently, I was honored to be invited to become a contributor to the prestigious Yale University Forum on Climate Change and the Media, and am now producing monthly projects for them under the title "This is Not Cool".
Many of you also follow the daily postings at the "Climate Crocks" blog, which has become one of the leading "must read" stopovers in the climate-aware blogosphere.
In recent months, I've been privileged more and more to interview and get to know some of the true giants in the field of earth and atmospheric science - and now, I've been invited to join a research team as they make an annual trek to gather data and take readings on a rapidly receding North American Glacier. My host will be one of the world's leading experts on mountain glaciers, Dr. Mauri Pelto, Director of the North Cascade Glacier Climate Project, who has been a frequent advisor, and was one of the first scientists I had the opportunity to interview in researching my series.
I hope to bring even greater immediacy to my viewers and take a closer look at what working, publishing, data-gathering, boots-on-the-ice scientists are seeing and recording every day - the ongoing transformation of planet earth.
Your contribution will make it possible for me to get properly outfitted, travel across the country, spend precious time with Dr. Pelto and his team. I know this is a tough economy for everyone, but I hope you'll consider the value that the Climate Crocks series has brought to the science communication process, and help me take it to a new level.
Thanks to all for your continued support. My promise is to continue to work to make these videos the best, most informative, and entertaining science series on the web.
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Disc 1 of the three DVD collections of the earliest Climate Crock videos! Save 'em, swap em, collect 'em, show 'em on your local cable channel! Bring 'em to your local tea party meeting and watch the fireworks! Disc One: •Party like its 1998 •2009 Arctic Ice Update •"Creepy at the EPA!" •"Birth of a Climate Crock" •"The Temp Leads Carbon Crock!" (first edition)
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Three Disc Set of Climate Crock Classics: Disc One •Party like its 1998 •2009 Arctic Ice Update •"Creepy at the EPA!" •"Birth of a Climate Crock" •"The Temp Leads Carbon Crock!" (first edition) Disc Two •"32,000 Scientists!" •"It's so Cold, there Can't be Global Warming" •"Climate Crock Sacks Hack Attack" Part 1 - the story of 'Climate Gate' •"Climate Crock Sacks Hack Attack" Part 2 •"In the 70s, Scientists Said there'd be an Ice Age" Disc Three •"How do We Know About Climate Change?" •"Flogging the Scientists" •Renewables Solution of the Month: Hybrid Cars •Renewable Solution of the Month: Wind
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TRUE collector's item. Limited availability - when they're gone, they're really gone!!! Long before "Climate Crocks", I was a syndicated cartoonist with King Features, and "Alex's Restaurant", the first Green Cartoon Strip, ran (briefly) in papers around the planet. The strip was ahead of its time, but a small number of paperback collections of the classic toons exist, published by Crossing Press in 1993. Pulitzer winner Jim Borgman says, "There are so many strips around with no heart.....Alex's feels real and has a ring to it - the drawing is terrific!" Pulitzer winner Mike Peters says, "The drawings are great, and the IDEAS are wonderful!" Includes 3 disc set of "Climate Crock" DVDs.
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His video series "Climate Denial Crock of the Week" and "This is Not Cool" have been internationally acclaimed as clear and comprehensive introductions to the most serious issue facing mankind.
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wunderground: Record breaking temps in the West


More Record-Setting Heat

by Angela Fritz, WunderGround, June 27, 2012
Tuesday's heat toppled many records in the Central U.S., particularly in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. On Monday and Tuesday (June 25 and 26) combined, 11 locations tied or broke their all-time record high temperature, 78 locations broke their all-time record high for the month of June, and 382 daily high records fell. Some notable Tuesday records from our Weather Historian:

115° in McCook, Nebraska, is the all-time record for any month. The old records for site are 114° 7/20/1932 and for June 112° 6/5/1933—both set in the heat waves of the 1930s. Yesterday's 115° at McCook also broke the all-time Nebraska state June record of 114° which was set in Franklin in 1936.

105° in Denver, Colorado, ties Monday's all-time record, and ties the 5-day record for number of days above 100°.

101° in Colorado Springs, Colorado, is the all-time undisputed record high for any month.

111° in Miles City, Montana, is the all-time high for any month.

111° in Lamar, Colorado, tied that all-time heat record in any month.

115° in Hill City, Kansas, is the new June record, but fell short of all-time 117° reading, and one degree short of Kansas state June record.

110° in Dodge City, Kansas, ties the all-time high for any month, which was just set last June.
103°  in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, and 110° in Cedar Bluff Dam, Kansas, also tied their all-time record highs on Tuesday. Our Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt, who mused that this heat wave is starting to shape up like the record setting heat waves of the 1930s, will have a full-length post on this week's incredible heat wave on Friday. Today the heat shifts eastward, with eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in an excessive heat watch [Hey! Don't forget the rest of Illinois -- we're expecting 109 in Carbondale!], and eastern Kansas and western Missouri in an excessive heat warning.  St. Louis could start to see 100°+ today, and Chicago will likely have their warmest day on Thursday. This heat wave will reach the eastern U.S. by Friday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2137#
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Heat Waves and Climate Change. A Science Update from Climate Communication – June 28, 2012. Expert Reviewers: Kevin Trenberth and Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground), and Richard Somerville (Scripps Inst. of Oceanography)


Heat Waves and Climate Change

A Science Update from Climate Communication – June 28, 2012


Expert Reviewers:

There has been a remarkable run of record-shattering heat waves in recent years, from the Russian heat wave of 2010 that set forests ablaze to the historic heat wave in Texas in 2011 and the “Summer in March” in the U.S. Midwest in 2012. These events typify the on-going trend driven by climate change.
This report, Heat Waves and Climate Change, summarizes our current scientific understanding of the connection between climate change and the recent increase in extreme temperatures, as reported in peer-reviewed research articles published through May 2012.

Overview

Climate change is already affecting extreme weather. The National Academy of Sciences reports that the hottest days are now hotter.1  And the fingerprint of global warming behind this change has been firmly identified.2 3 4
Since 1950 the number of heat waves worldwide has increased, and heat waves have become longer.5  The hottest days and nights have become hotter and more frequent.6 7    In the past several years, the global area hit by extremely unusual hot summertime temperatures has increased 50-fold.8  Over the contiguous United States, new record high temperatures over the past decade have consistently outnumbered new record lows by a ratio of 2:1.9   In 2012, the ratio for the year through June 18 stands at nearly 10:1.10  Though this ratio is not expected to remain at that level for the rest of the year, it illustrates how unusual 2012 has been and how these types of extremes are becoming more likely.
The significant increase in heat extremes we have witnessed associated with a small shift in the global average temperature is consistent with climate change. The percentage change in the number of very hot days can be quite large.11  Global warming boosts the probability of very extreme events, like the recent “Summer in March” episode in the U.S. in which thousands of new record highs were set, far more than it changes the likelihood of more moderate events.12
Higher spring and summer temperatures, along with an earlier spring melt, are also the primary factors driving the increasing frequency of large wildfires and lengthening the fire season in the western U.S. over recent decades.13   The record-breaking fires this year in the Southwest and Rocky Mountain Region are consistent with these trends.
The impact of these changes can be devastating. The drought, heat wave, and associated record wildfires that hit Texas and the Southern plains in the summer of 2011 cost $12 billion.14
Figure 1.  Summer in March. The colors show the difference from average temperatures from March 13-19, 2012, in degrees C. The dark red areas were 15 °C (27 °F) above average for this period. Source: NASA.

Looking Forward

Figure 2: Projected Frequency of Extreme Heat: 1-in-20 Year Events. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
Confidence has risen in computer model projections of future changes in hot extremes because recent observations are consistent with the results of past model predictions.1
Models predict that the same summertime temperatures that ranked among the top 5% in 1950–1979 will occur at least 70% of the time by 2035–2064 in the U.S. if global emissions of greenhouse gases grow at a moderate rate (as modeled under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario). Such a growth rate would require a decline from the current high rate of growth.2
The South, Southwest, and Northeast may be especially prone to large increases in unusually hot summers.3 Parts of the South that currently have about 60 days per year with temperatures over 90 degrees are projected to experience 150 or more days a year above 90 degrees by the end of this century.4
By the end of this century, a once-every-20-year heat wave is projected to occur every other year.5

Heat Waves: The Details

A heat wave is generally defined as a period of several days to weeks of abnormally hot weather.
In the past 3-4 decades, there has been an increasing trend in high-humidity heat waves, which are characterized by the persistence of extremely high night-time temperatures.1 The combination of high humidity and high night-time temperature can make for a deadly pairing, offering no relief and posing a particular threat for the elderly. Extreme heat events are responsible for more deaths annually than hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined.2
At the same time, low-humidity heat waves associated with droughts and fueled in part by climate change contribute to the dry conditions that are driving wild fires.3 4
Numerous studies have documented that human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and severity of heat waves across the globe.5 6 7 8 9
For instance, a thorough statistical analysis of the Russian heat wave suggests that there was an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July Russian heat record would not have occurred without climate warming, or alternatively the probability increased by a factor of five.10 11
Globally, extremely warm nights that used to come once in 20 years now occur every 10 years.12 And extremely hot summers, those more than three standard deviations above the historic average, are now observed in about 10% of the global land area, compared to 0.1-0.2% for the period 1951-1980.13
These trends cannot be explained by natural variation alone. Only with the inclusion of human influences can computer models of the climate reproduce the observed changes. These changes include an increase in the number of warm nights, unusually hot days, and heat waves, as well as warming of the warmest night of the year, warming of the coldest nights and days of the year, and warming of the hottest day of the year.14 15 16 17 18 19

Figure 3. The ratio of record daily temperature highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Source: Meehl et al. 2009.
While natural variability continues to play a key role in extreme weather, climate change has shifted the odds and changed the natural limits, making heat waves more frequent and more intense. In an unchanging climate both new record highs and new record lows are set regularly, even while the total number of new records set each year may decrease as time goes on. However, the new records would be, on average, evenly balanced between record highs and record lows. In contrast, the balance shifts in a warming climate, and on average more new records highs than new record lows are set over any time period. It is worth noting that even in a warming climate new record lows are still set, though fewer in number, due to natural variation even as the climate warms.
Sixty years ago in the continental United States, the number of new record high temperatures recorded around the country each year was roughly equal to the number of new record lows. Over the past decade, however, the number of new record highs recorded each year has been twice the number of new record lows, a signature of a warming climate, and a clear example of its impact on extreme weather.20 (See Figure 3.)
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center reports that from January 1 to June 18 of 2012 new high temperature records outnumbered cold records across the United States by nearly 10:1. As noted above, this ratio cannot be expected to remain at that level for the rest of the year, but it illustrates how unusual 2012 has been and how these types of extremes are becoming more likely.
For the U.S., the rise in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere has increased the probability of record-breaking temperatures 15-fold.21 In Europe, global warming is now responsible for an estimated 29% of the new record highs set each year.22
 Figure 4. Ratios of Record High Temperatures to Record Low Temperatures.

Figure 5. IPCC (2001) graph illustrating how a shift and/or widening of a probability distribution of temperatures affects the probability of extremes.
Figure 4 illustrates that during the 1950s in the U.S. about as many new record highs were recorded as new record lows, roughly consistent with expectations of an unchanging climate. However, in 2009, 2010, and 2011, roughly twice as many new record highs were recorded compared to record lows, qualitatively consistent with a warming climate. The data for the year-to-date in 2012 reflect a very high ratio, much more than 2 to 1, and that highlights the fact that in any given year, a region as small as the U.S. can have very large departures from the global average. Atmospheric circulation variability, El Niños and La Niñas, and many other phenomena are involved in determining which regions will experience extremes in any given year.
A small change in average global temperature leads to a dramatic change in the frequency of extreme events.23 24 25 The following graphs (Figures 5 and 6) help to illustrate this point. In a normal climate the probability for extreme events can be visualized like a traditional bell curve, as illustrated in Figure 6.
Moderate weather events are much more common than extreme events. So a small shift in temperature has an outsized effect on the frequency of extreme events due to relative impact of this shift.26
Climate change shifts the curve to the hotter side, moving the average over. Climate change also flattens the curve, providing for a greater spread of events, an increase in variability. The combination provides for a dramatic increase in record hot weather.27 Here “variance” is a measure of the spread of temperatures around the “mean” or average temperature.
The graph below (Figure 6) plots historical temperature data from the Northern Hemisphere, with each colored line representing a different decade. A “positive temperature anomaly” means temperatures are higher than the long-term average, while a “negative temperature anomaly” means they are lower. Thus, the graph illustrates both the shift and the flattening of the curve representing the distribution of unusual temperatures.28 The overall effect corresponds with graph (c) in Figure 5 above.
Figure 6. Frequency of summer temperature anomalies (how often they deviated from the historical normal of 1951-1980) over the summer months in the northern hemisphere. Source: NASA/ Hansen et al. (2012).

Heat Waves and Wildfires

For many heat waves, there are also important feedbacks that come into play that amplify drought and heat and set the stage for wildfires. There is a direct local contribution to the drying and high temperatures in the absence of evaporative cooling.1 While heat waves with high humidity are oppressive and give no relief at night, heat waves often form in association with drought. In these cases, the prevailing dry conditions set the stage for the heat since the land is dried out, the vegetation is wilted, and all of the heat from the sun goes into raising temperatures, whereas ordinarily, in the process of evaporative cooling, surface water or wetness acts as an evaporative cooler (swamp cooler) of sorts.
Some extreme examples have occurred in recent years in south Australia in January 2009, in Russia in summer 2010, and in Texas and Oklahoma in summer 2011. The record high temperatures in each case, along with the tinder dry conditions, led to extensive wildfires that were extremely costly in terms of lives, structures, human dislocations, and costs.2 3 The exceptionally warm March in the U. S. is but part of record warmth for the first five months of the year (see Figure 8 below) and, along with an absence of snow, the rapid snow melt has left the Rocky Mountains almost without snow by June 1, 2012. The very hot and dry conditions throughout the Southwest and Rocky Mountain Region have led to exceptionally high risk of wildfire. Multiple wildfires have already occurred, and several in Colorado and Utah have expanded into huge burn areas, resulting in loss of life and structures.
As emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to rise, and global average temperatures continue to increase, we can expect even more of the of extreme heat and related impacts we’ve been witnessing in recent years.
Figure 7. Difference from average temperature over the contiguous U.S., January–May 2012. Source: NCDC/NOAA.
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