tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post6276117836267128781..comments2024-01-16T13:06:15.270-06:00Comments on Climate Change: The Next Generation: Whistling past the climate change graveyard by David AtkinsTenney Naumerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11843130378338023902noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-579549341020421678.post-24567476534246199242012-09-16T08:53:51.284-05:002012-09-16T08:53:51.284-05:00The numbers above are far too conservative. If we...The numbers above are far too conservative. If we ceased all fossil fuel combustion today, the temperatures (above pre-industrial) in a few decades would reach about 2.5 C, for three reasons. First, we have already increased by 0.8 C. Second, the 'climate commitment' due to thermal inertia is about 0.6-0.7 C. Third, no more fossil sulphates will be produced to mask the full heating effect, and there will be an 'aerosol forcing' of somewhere between 0.5-1.5 C; the dispersion is due to disagreement among the experts as to the exact increase. On average, this totals 2.5 C. Note that this number is only from fossil fuels already used, and it does not take into account the many positive feedbacks we are already seeing today (e.g., methane).<br /><br />In more ways than one, we are already 'toast', unless we can find the equivalent of a successful 'Hail Mary' pass.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com